#90 overall · LAR · 253.1 projected half-PPR pts · -6.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 90.5
Matthew Stafford — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2025 season is the argument. Stafford threw for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions on 597 attempts, the best single-season passing touchdown total of his three-year stretch with the Rams. That performance sits well above his 2023 and 2024 lines, where he posted 24 and 20 touchdown passes respectively. The three-year average of 30 passing touchdowns and 4,144.7 passing yards per season shows a floor that is functional, and the 2025 ceiling shows what the upside looks like when things click. His bye is Week 11, which is late enough to avoid the early-season roster crunch. For a drafter willing to wait on quarterback, Stafford is a name worth circling.
What the model projects
The projection is 253.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -6.3, which places him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #90 overall and QB8 at his position, sitting in Tier 9. The point estimate of 253.1 sits above the median simulated season of 245.1, reflecting the shape of his outcome distribution.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 521 | 326 | 3965 | 24 | 11 | 21 | 65 | — | 250.1 |
| 2024 | 517 | 340 | 3762 | 20 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 6 | 222.6 |
| 2025 | 597 | 388 | 4707 | 46 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 5 | 358.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 545 | 351.3 | 4144.7 | 30 | 9 | 26.7 | 35.7 | 3.7 | 280.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Stafford finishes at 101.7 points. The 25th percentile is 186.4 points. The median simulated season lands at 245.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 309.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 361.4 points. That is a spread of roughly 260 points from the bad end to the great end, which is a meaningful range. The 2023 and 2024 seasons, where he posted 24 and 20 passing touchdowns respectively, give texture to what the lower end of that band can look like. The 2025 season, with 46 touchdowns and 4,707 yards, anchors the upper end.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 90.5, drawn from two platforms, which works out to pick 8.07 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round quarterback slot, consistent with a wait-at-QB approach. His overall rank is #90 and his position rank is QB8. Drafters who plan to carry two quarterbacks or who want a high-upside late option should note that the 8th round is when the market is currently pricing him. Plan accordingly if he is on your list.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He completed 388 of 597 pass attempts for 4,707 yards, 46 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. He also carried 29 times for 1 rushing yard and lost 3 fumbles.
QB8 at his position and #90 overall, in Tier 9, with a projected 253.1 half-PPR points and a draft value of -6.3 in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The simulated season band runs from 101.7 points at the 10th percentile to 361.4 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 245.1 points.
Market ADP is 90.5 across two platforms, which translates to pick 8.07 in a 12-team snake draft. If he is on your list, the 8th round is when the market is currently taking him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →