#170 overall · LAR · 235.7 projected half-PPR pts · -31.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 111.4
Matthew Stafford — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Stafford's 2025 season was the best of the three-year window on record: 4,707 passing yards, 46 touchdown passes, and only 8 interceptions on 597 attempts. That touchdown total is a sharp jump from the 24 he posted in 2023 and the 20 he posted in 2024. The three-year average settles at 30 touchdown passes, 4,144.7 passing yards, and a 9-interception pace per season — a profile that shows a durable, high-volume passer who just delivered a career-best scoring season. If you need a QB who logs 500-plus attempts and limits turnovers relative to volume, the recent track record makes the case.
What the model projects
The projection is 235.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands Stafford at QB13 and #170 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value is -31.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The number is what it is — a below-replacement projection despite a strong 2025 showing.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 521 | 326 | 3965 | 24 | 11 | 21 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 250.1 |
| 2024 | 517 | 340 | 3762 | 20 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 222.6 |
| 2025 | 597 | 388 | 4707 | 46 | 8 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 358.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 545 | 351.3 | 4144.7 | 30 | 9 | 26.7 | 35.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.7 | — | — | 280.4 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year record gives a sense of the floor-to-ceiling spread. At the low end, Stafford's 2024 produced 3,762 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. At the high end, his 2025 produced 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns — more than double the touchdown output. That historical swing is wide. Fumbles are a modest drag: he lost 2 in 2024 and 3 in 2025. The projection of 235.7 points sits in the context of that variance; a season closer to his 2025 form would push the actual total well above it, while a reversion toward his 2023–2024 range would pull it down.
How to draft him
Stafford is ranked #170 overall and QB13. His market ADP is 111.4 — round 10, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. That means the market is pricing him as a pick roughly 60 spots ahead of where he ranks by projected value over replacement. Plan accordingly: if you intend to target him, the market will ask for a 10th-round pick. His bye is Week 11.
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Questions drafters ask
He completed 388 of 597 pass attempts for 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns against 8 interceptions, with 3 fumbles lost. It was his highest passing yardage and touchdown total of the three seasons on record.
He is QB13 by projected draft value and #170 overall, sitting in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value of -31.8 places him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
His market ADP of 111.4 translates to round 10, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is when you would need to commit a pick if you want him.
Over 2023–2025, he averaged 545 pass attempts, 351.3 completions, 4,144.7 passing yards, 30 touchdown passes, and 9 interceptions per season. Volume has been steady; the touchdown output swung from 20 in 2024 to 46 in 2025.