Malik Willis — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Malik Willis is now with Miami, and the case for him is narrow but real. Over the past two seasons he has shown a consistent rushing contribution: 20 attempts for 138 yards in 2024, 22 attempts for 123 yards in 2025. He has also posted rushing touchdowns in each of those two years. For a quarterback in half-PPR formats, legs matter, and Willis has them. His 2025 line of 3 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns, and 422 passing yards on just 35 attempts shows a player who can produce in limited action. The three-year averages confirm the pattern: roughly 15.7 rush attempts, 94 rush yards, and a combined 3 touchdowns per season. If his role expands in Miami, that rushing floor gives him a path to relevance that a pure pocket passer in the same situation would not have.

What the model projects

The projection is 170.1 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Willis ranks QB30 at the position and #343 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -89.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Miami has a Week 6 bye. The projection is the headline number; the median simulated season, discussed below, tells a somewhat different story about the most likely outcome.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 46.6 points, a number that reflects the real possibility of minimal playing time. The 25th percentile sits at 95.6 points. The median simulated season lands at 142.6 points, below the 170.1 point estimate, which signals that the distribution is skewed by a smaller number of high-end outcomes pulling the average up. The 75th percentile reaches 217.1 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 281.4 points. That upper band is where the rushing upside lives. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes is 234.8 points, one of the wider spreads a drafter will encounter at the position, and it reflects genuine uncertainty about role and opportunity rather than talent alone.

How to draft him

Willis is coming off the board at an average pick of 179.7 across two platforms, which works out to pick 15.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round flier territory. At that price, the cost of being wrong is low. The question is whether you need a quarterback at that stage of your draft at all. If you have already secured a starter and want a high-variance handcuff with rushing upside, Willis fits that profile. His bye in Week 6 is worth noting for roster management. Draft him only if you have a clear plan for what he gives you: a speculative rushing-floor quarterback who could return value in the right situation, with a wide enough outcome band that both disappointment and a pleasant surprise are both firmly on the table.

Yes. He has logged 20 rush attempts for 138 yards and 1 rushing touchdown in 2024, and 22 attempts for 123 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in 2025. The three-year average is 15.7 rush attempts and 94 rush yards per season. That rushing contribution is real and consistent across his recent history.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 281.4 half-PPR points. That is the top 10% of outcomes. The 75th percentile is 217.1 points. Those upper-band numbers represent the scenarios where his role and opportunity expand meaningfully.

The market is taking him at an average of pick 179.7, or round 15, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That is the final round of a standard 15-round format, so if you want him you need to spend your last pick on him rather than assuming he goes undrafted.

The projection of 170.1 points and a draft value of -89.1 place him at QB30 and #343 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. He profiles as a speculative handcuff or streamer rather than a reliable weekly starter.