#76 overall · ATL · 120.6 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 76.1
Kyle Pitts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyle Pitts posted his best statistical season in 2025: 928 receiving yards, 88 receptions, 118 targets, and 5 receiving touchdowns. That target volume is the clearest argument in his favor. Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 94 targets, 62.7 receptions, 732.3 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per year. The 2025 season sits well above those averages, and it represents the kind of ceiling that makes him worth a roster spot. At TE6 with a bye in Week 11, he is a starter-caliber option at a position where reliable production is scarce.
What the model projects
The projection for Pitts is 120.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at exactly +0.0, placing him right at replacement level for his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #76 overall and TE6 by draft value. He lands in Tier 9 of the overall rankings. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season, at 131.1 points, runs modestly above it.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 90 | 53 | 667 | 3 | 110.8 |
| 2024 | 74 | 47 | 602 | 4 | 107.7 |
| 2025 | 118 | 88 | 928 | 5 | 166.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 94 | 62.7 | 732.3 | 4 | 128.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finished at or below 65.4 points, a figure that would make him a liability at the position. The 25th percentile sits at 95.7 points, still a functional starter's output. The median outcome is 131.1 points. The 75th percentile reaches 153.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons came in at or above 181.0 points. That spread from 65.4 to 181.0 reflects genuine season-to-season variance. His 2023 and 2024 seasons, at 667 and 602 receiving yards respectively, show what the floor can look like; his 2025 season shows what the ceiling looks like.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Pitts is being drafted at an average pick of 76.1 across public 2026 drafts, which works out to pick 7.04 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the seventh round, fourth pick. His overall rank is #76 overall, so the market is pricing him almost exactly where the rankings place him. Plan to spend a seventh-round pick if you want him on your roster. At that stage of the draft, TE6 is a reasonable allocation for a drafter who wants a starter at the position rather than waiting on a late-round dart throw.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 88 passes on 118 targets for 928 receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns. All three of those figures were his best across the 2023-2025 window tracked here.
Based on a market ADP of 76.1, he is going in the seventh round, around pick 7.04. If you want him, that is the price the market is currently charging.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 65.4 half-PPR points. His 2023 and 2024 seasons, at 667 and 602 receiving yards respectively, illustrate that a reduced-production outcome is a real possibility, not just a tail risk.
At TE6, he projects as a starter-caliber option. The median simulated season of 131.1 points and the 75th-percentile outcome of 153.5 points suggest meaningful upside above the point estimate, though the wide band means variance is a real factor to manage.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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