#87 overall · ATL · 108.0 projected half-PPR pts · -4.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 83.6
Kyle Pitts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kyle Pitts put together his best statistical season in 2025 — 118 targets, 88 receptions, 928 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. That target volume is real and it is sustained: over the past three seasons he has averaged 94 targets, 62.7 receptions, 732.3 receiving yards, and 4 receiving touchdowns per year. The 2025 campaign showed what the ceiling looks like when usage and health align. For a drafter who needs reliable TE production, Pitts has demonstrated he can absorb a heavy target share and convert it.
What the model projects
The model projects Pitts at 108.0 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output places him at TE9 and #87 overall, sitting in Tier 9 on the full board. His draft value of -4.0 means the projection lands just below replacement level at the tight end position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format — a narrow gap, but one that matters when building a roster around positional value.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 90 | 53 | 667 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 110.8 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 47 | 602 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 107.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 88 | 928 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 166.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | -1.3 | — | 94 | 62.7 | 732.3 | 4 | — | — | 128.5 |
The range of outcomes
Pitts's recent history illustrates the variance at play. His receiving yards swung from 602 in 2024 to 928 in 2025, and his targets moved from 74 to 118 across those same two seasons. Touchdown production has ranged from 3 to 5 over the last three years. The upside case — a repeat of 2025-level usage with improved scoring efficiency — pushes his ceiling meaningfully above the 108.0 projection. The downside case, closer to his 2024 line, would leave him well short of that number. His bye falls in Week 11, which is a manageable but real roster-management consideration late in the fantasy season.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Pitts at pick 83.6 on average — that is the 7th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft (7.12), based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #87 overall and TE9. If you want him, the market says you will need to commit a mid-to-late seventh-round pick. Given his draft value sits at -4.0, he is best treated as a secondary TE target rather than an anchor of your positional strategy — but if the target volume from 2025 carries forward, the projection has room to move.
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Questions drafters ask
Based on a median ADP of 83.6 across two platforms, Pitts is currently going in the 7th round, 12th pick (7.12) in a 12-team draft.
He saw 90 targets in 2023, 74 in 2024, and a career-high 118 in 2025, for a three-year average of 94 targets per season.
The model projects him at 108.0 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him TE9 and #87 overall in Tier 9 on the full board.
His draft value is -4.0, meaning the projection places him just below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR baseline.