#70 overall · NE · 128.6 projected half-PPR pts · +1.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 56.8
TreVeyon Henderson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The 2025 season is the only meaningful data point in TreVeyon Henderson's three-year aggregate. His 2025 numbers and his three-year aggregate numbers are identical: 180 rush attempts, 911 rush yards, 9 rushing touchdowns, 35 receptions, 221 receiving yards, and 1 receiving touchdown. That is a full-season workload with a legitimate touchdown floor. Nine rushing scores on 180 carries is a rate that keeps a running back relevant in half-PPR formats even when yardage is modest. The receiving work adds a layer: 42 targets and 35 catches show consistent involvement in the passing game, which matters on a team that may lean on its backfield in short-yardage and check-down situations.
What the model projects
The projection is 128.6 half-PPR fantasy points, with a draft value of +1.5 above replacement level at the position. That places Henderson at RB29 and #70 overall, sitting in Tier 8. The point estimate is close to the median simulated season of 133.6 points, which means the projection is not leaning heavily on upside scenarios to reach its number.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 180 | 911 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 188.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 180 | 911 | 9 | 42 | 35 | 221 | 1 | 1 | 190.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 44.8 points, a figure that reflects how quickly a running back's fantasy value can collapse. The 25th percentile lands at 83.8 points, still a difficult season for a starter. The median sits at 133.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 179.2 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 219.8 points. The distance between the 10th and 90th percentile outcomes is 175.0 points, a span that captures just how volatile a running back season can be. Drafters who land the 90th-percentile version get a productive starter; those who land the 10th-percentile version get very little.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Henderson's market ADP is 56.8, which works out to pick 5.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. His rank is #70 overall. A drafter targeting Henderson needs to be ready to spend a fifth-round pick to secure him. His bye is Week 11, which is worth noting for playoff-schedule planning. Given the wide outcome band, the decision comes down to how much variance a roster can absorb at the running back position in the mid-rounds.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 180 times for 911 rush yards and 9 rushing touchdowns, caught 35 of 42 targets for 221 receiving yards, and added 1 receiving touchdown. He also lost 1 fumble on the season.
The model projects 128.6 half-PPR fantasy points, placing him at RB29 and #70 overall in Tier 8, with a draft value of +1.5 above replacement level.
The simulated season band runs from 44.8 points at the 10th percentile to 219.8 points at the 90th percentile, with a median of 133.6 points. The gap between the worst and best simulated outcomes is 175.0 points.
His market ADP is 56.8, which translates to pick 5.09 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use a fifth-round pick if you want to secure him.
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Beyond the numbers
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