#300 overall · BUF · 39.5 projected half-PPR pts · -80.3 Draft Value
Dawson Knox — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Dawson Knox posted his best statistical season in 2025: 49 targets, 36 receptions, 417 receiving yards, and 4 touchdowns. That is a meaningful step up from the 33-target, 22-reception, 1-touchdown line he put up in 2024, and it represents the high end of what his three-year window looks like. The three-year averages sit at 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns per season. The 2025 campaign suggests the floor of that range may be rising. He plays in Buffalo, a pass-heavy offense with a proven quarterback, and the 2025 numbers show he can be a genuine contributor when volume and touchdowns align.
What the model projects
The projection is 39.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That is a modest number, and the draft value of -80.3 reflects a position below replacement level at TE in a 12-team half-PPR format. Knox sits at TE42 and #300 overall, placing him in Tier 9. At this projection, he is a depth option rather than a starter in most formats.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 2 | 41.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | 22 | 311 | 1 | 48.1 |
| 2025 | 49 | 36 | 417 | 4 | 83.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 39.3 | 26.7 | 304.7 | 2.3 | 57.6 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at or below 4.8 points, and the 25th percentile is just 15.9. The median simulated season comes in at 35.6 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 59.8 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 91.7 points or better. That spread from 4.8 to 91.7 is substantial. The 2025 season showed what the upper end of his range looks like in practice; the lower end of the band is a reminder that it is not guaranteed to repeat. His bye falls in Week 7.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Knox does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. In practice, that makes him a late-add or waiver-wire target rather than a pick you need to plan around. At TE42 and #300 overall, he belongs on the back end of your depth chart at best. If you are carrying two tight ends, he is a speculative stash on the strength of his 2025 breakout. If you are not, there is no urgency to spend a pick on him at all.
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Questions drafters ask
At TE42 and #300 overall with a projected 39.5 half-PPR points and a draft value of -80.3, Knox projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is not a recommended starter in most leagues.
Over the last three seasons Knox averaged 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 yards, and 2.3 touchdowns. His 2025 season was his best of the three: 49 targets, 36 receptions, 417 yards, and 4 touchdowns.
The top 10% of simulated seasons project at 91.7 half-PPR points or better. His 2025 line of 417 yards and 4 touchdowns gives a real-world reference point for what that range looks like.
Knox has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being selected consistently enough to register a median draft position. You do not need to plan a pick around him; he is available as a late or undrafted add.
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Beyond the numbers
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