#262 overall · BUF · 45.9 projected half-PPR pts · -66.0 Draft Value
Dawson Knox — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Knox's 2025 season was his most productive of the three-year window on record. He posted 417 receiving yards on 49 targets with 4 receiving touchdowns — his highest mark in all three categories across 2023, 2024, and 2025. His 2024 line was modest: 311 yards, 22 receptions, 1 touchdown on 33 targets. His 2023 line was thinner still: 186 yards, 22 receptions, 2 touchdowns on 36 targets. The three-year averages settle at 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 uptick in targets and touchdowns is the clearest argument in his favor heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 45.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. Knox ranks TE41 at the position and #262 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -66.0, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. Buffalo's bye week falls in Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 41.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 22 | 311 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 48.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 36 | 417 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 83.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39.3 | 26.7 | 304.7 | 2.3 | — | — | 57.6 |
The range of outcomes
No simulation band data is available for Knox in these FACTS, so the full percentile spread cannot be reported. What is on record: his per-season receiving yards have ranged from 186 (2023) to 417 (2025), and his touchdown totals have ranged from 1 (2024) to 4 (2025) over the same three-year window. That historical variance alone illustrates how wide the outcome range can be from one season to the next.
How to draft him
Knox is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot data to report. At TE41 and #262 overall with a draft value of -66.0, he projects below replacement level. If you are targeting him as a late-round flier or streaming option, his 2025 target and touchdown uptick is the fact-based hook — but the projection and rank reflect a player who, at this stage, is not expected to return value above the baseline.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection of 45.9 points and a draft value of -66.0 place him below replacement level at tight end — TE41 and #262 overall. The numbers do not support rostering him as a starter, though his 2025 season (417 yards, 4 touchdowns on 49 targets) shows the ceiling exists for a bounce-back if targets hold.
He caught 36 of 49 targets for 417 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns — his best output across the 2023–2025 window in every category.
His three-year averages are 39.3 targets, 26.7 receptions, 304.7 receiving yards, and 2.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The individual seasons vary considerably: receiving yards ranged from 186 to 417, and touchdowns ranged from 1 to 4.
Knox does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no draft-slot data to report.