Michael Mayer — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Michael Mayer's 2025 season was the clearest version of what he can be. He posted 50 targets, 35 receptions, and 328 receiving yards with a touchdown, all career highs across the three seasons on record. The three-year averages tell a steadier story: 40.7 targets, 27.7 receptions, 262.7 yards, and 1.0 receiving touchdown per season. That is a tight-end role that exists and gets fed. For a drafter building a late-roster TE, the 2025 line is the argument: the target share was real, the volume was real, and the production followed.

What the model projects

The projection is 38.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits below his 2025 actual output, which reflects the variance baked into a low-volume position. His draft value is -81.7, placing him at TE44 and #302 overall in Tier 9. At that tier and rank, he projects below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate is the number to anchor to: 38.1 points, full stop.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a tight end operating at this volume level. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 4.2 points. The 25th percentile is 14.7 points. The median simulated season is 33.8 points, slightly below the 38.1 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 57.9 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons hit 88.8 points. That upper tail is meaningful: in a good season, Mayer can return genuine fantasy value. The floor, however, is close to zero. His bye week falls in Week 13, a common fantasy playoff entry point, which is a scheduling note worth carrying into draft decisions.

How to draft him

Mayer is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick cost to plan around. He is a free agent on draft day in the truest sense: available off the wire or as a final-round flier whenever you choose to take him. Given his Tier 9 standing and a draft value of -81.7, he belongs at the back end of any draft, taken only after your starting lineup and meaningful depth are already secured. The upside case, anchored by his 2025 target volume and the p90 of 88.8 points, makes him a reasonable late stash at a thin position. The floor case, a p10 of 4.2 points, means he cannot be your only plan at tight end.

In 2025 he caught 35 of 50 targets for 328 yards and 1 touchdown. Those are his best single-season numbers across the three years on record, and they represent a clear step up from his 2024 line of 21 receptions, 32 targets, and 156 yards.

The projection is 38.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His three-year average production works out to 27.7 receptions, 262.7 yards, and 1.0 receiving touchdown per season, so the projection sits in a range consistent with his historical output rather than assuming a repeat of his 2025 peak.

Mayer does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. He is effectively available at any point in the draft, including off the waiver wire after it.

The top 10% of simulated seasons project to 88.8 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile lands at 57.9 points. Those outcomes require things to break well, but the 2025 target volume of 50 shows the role exists to support them.