#84 overall · WAS · 255.4 projected half-PPR pts · -4.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 68.3
Jayden Daniels — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jayden Daniels put together one of the more compelling dual-threat seasons a young quarterback can post. In 2024 he completed 331 of 480 passes for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns against 9 interceptions, while adding 148 rush attempts for 891 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. That rushing volume is the core of his fantasy appeal: a quarterback who carries the ball that often generates points through a second scoring channel that pure pocket passers simply do not have. The 2025 season was abbreviated, producing 1,262 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, 278 rushing yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns across a reduced sample. The three-year averages tell the fuller story: 334 pass attempts, 2,415 passing yards, 16.5 passing touchdowns, 103 rush attempts, and 584.5 rushing yards per season. The rushing floor is real and it has shown up consistently enough to anchor a projection.
What the model projects
The projection is 255.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Daniels at QB7 by position rank and #84 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -4.1, meaning the projection lands just below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The number is not a condemnation of his talent; it reflects where replacement-level production at quarterback sits in this format. The median simulated season, at 248.2 points, tracks closely with the point estimate, which signals a relatively centered distribution around the projection.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 480 | 331 | 3568 | 25 | 9 | 148 | 891 | 6 | 5 | 358.8 |
| 2025 | 188 | 114 | 1262 | 8 | 3 | 58 | 278 | 2 | 3 | 115.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 334 | 222.5 | 2415 | 16.5 | 6 | 103 | 584.5 | 4 | 4 | 239.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 103.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 189.5. The median is 248.2. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 311.9 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 363.0. That is a spread of roughly 260 points from the bottom decile to the top, which is substantial variance for any position. The downside scenario is severe: a p10 of 103.4 represents a season where almost nothing goes right. The upside scenario at 363.0 points is the kind of number that wins fantasy weeks. Daniels carries a bye in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster management. His 2024 fumble total of 5 and his career interception rates are the clearest statistical flags on the risk side of the ledger.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Daniels going at pick 68.3, which translates to Round 6, Pick 8 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #84 overall. In a format where most drafters treat quarterback as a late-round position, Round 6 is an early commitment to the position. The projection of 255.4 points and a draft value of -4.1 are the numbers to weigh against that pick cost. If your draft strategy calls for securing a dual-threat quarterback before the position runs thin, Round 6 is when the market says you need to act to get Daniels. If you are comfortable waiting, the projection and draft value suggest the position offers alternatives at a lower pick cost, though this article has no facts about those alternatives. Know your number, know the round, and make the call with clear eyes.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
The projection is 255.4 half-PPR points, and he ranks QB7 by position. His draft value is -4.1, which puts him just below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. His 2024 rushing volume, 148 attempts for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns, is the primary reason he projects as a viable starter. Whether that is worth a Round 6 pick depends on your roster construction strategy.
It matters significantly. In 2024 he posted 148 rush attempts for 891 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns alongside his passing production. The three-year average is 103 rush attempts and 584.5 rushing yards per season. That dual-threat production is baked into the 255.4-point projection and is the main reason he ranks QB7.
The p10 outcome, the floor for the worst 10 percent of simulated seasons, is 103.4 points. The 25th percentile is 189.5 points. Those are meaningful risks. His 2025 season produced only 1,262 passing yards, 8 passing touchdowns, and 278 rushing yards in a reduced sample, and his 2024 fumble total was 5. The band is wide enough that a bad season could be very costly for a team that spent a Round 6 pick on him.
Market ADP puts him at pick 68.3, or Round 6, Pick 8 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the point in the draft where other managers are, on average, selecting him. If you want Daniels, that is the window the market is pricing him into.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →