Detroit Lions — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Detroit's defense has been one of the more active units in the league over the past three seasons. The three-year averages tell the story: 42 sacks, 15 interceptions, 13.7 forced fumbles, and 6.7 fumbles recovered per season. The sack number actually climbed to 48 in 2025, the best of the three-year window. Interceptions have been consistent, landing at 16 in both 2023 and 2024 before settling at 13 in 2025. Forced fumbles hit a three-year high of 15 in 2025 as well. For a drafter who wants a DST with a demonstrated pass-rush floor and a history of creating turnovers, Detroit checks those boxes on paper.

What the model projects

The projection is 120.2 half-PPR fantasy points. The draft value is -25.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the DST position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Detroit ranks DST12 at the position and #140 overall, placed in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where the model lands after weighing the full picture of the unit's recent production.

The range of outcomes

The points-against history shows meaningful variance from season to season. Detroit allowed 395 points in 2023, improved to 342 in 2024, then gave up 413 in 2025. That 2025 figure included seven games in the 21-27 points-allowed range and five in the 28-34 range, a notably softer defensive profile than the year prior. The 2024 season, by contrast, featured six games allowing 14-20 points and only one game of 35 or more. The unit's fantasy ceiling in any given week is real when the pass rush is generating sacks and the secondary is creating turnovers, but the points-against volatility is a genuine risk factor. A bye in Week 6 is also worth noting for roster-management purposes.

How to draft him

Detroit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. What the rankings do say is clear: DST12 and #140 overall with a negative draft value puts this unit in late-draft or waiver-wire territory in a standard 12-team format. The approach most consistent with the numbers is to treat Detroit as a late-round flier, if at all, and to prioritize the position earlier in the draft if DST is part of your strategy. The Week 6 bye should factor into your streaming plan from the start.

The three-year average of 42 sacks per season, with a high of 48 in 2025, shows a consistent pass-rush presence. However, the projection of 120.2 points and a draft value of -25.7 place Detroit below replacement level at DST in a 12-team half-PPR format, so the model does not treat that pass rush as enough to make them a reliable weekly starter.

Detroit allowed 413 points in 2025, the highest of the three seasons on record. Seven games fell in the 21-27 points-allowed range and five in the 28-34 range. For context, the 2024 season saw only one game of 35 or more allowed and four in the 28-34 range, making 2025 a notably softer defensive year by those splits.

Detroit does not have a market ADP across platforms, which means the unit is not being consistently drafted in public leagues. The rankings place them at DST12 and #140 overall with a negative draft value, pointing toward late-draft or streaming treatment rather than an early investment.

Over the 2023-2025 window, Detroit averaged 15 interceptions and 6.7 fumble recoveries per season. Interceptions were 16 in both 2023 and 2024, then 13 in 2025. Fumble recoveries were 6, 8, and 6 in those respective seasons. Forced fumbles averaged 13.7 per year and reached a three-year high of 15 in 2025.