#126 overall · DET · 110.5 projected half-PPR pts · -18.5 Draft Value
Detroit Lions — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
The Detroit Lions DST has posted back-to-back seasons with 16 interceptions and double-digit forced fumbles, and in 2025 they reached a three-year high of 48 sacks. Over the last three seasons the unit has averaged 42 sacks, 15 interceptions, 13.7 forced fumbles, and 6.7 fumble recoveries per year — a consistent turnover-generating profile that translates reliably into fantasy scoring. The sack number trending upward is the headline: 41 in 2023, 37 in 2024, 48 in 2025. That kind of pass-rush production is the engine of DST fantasy value, and Detroit has it.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Against the replacement-level baseline for the DST position, that produces a draft value of -18.5 points, placing the Lions DST at DST12 and #126 overall. They sit in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a unit that scores, but not at a level that clears the bar for positive surplus value in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| INT | Sacks | FF | FR | TD | Saf | PA | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 41 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 395 | 106.0 |
| 2024 | 16 | 37 | 13 | 8 | 2 | — | 342 | 110.0 |
| 2025 | 13 | 48 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 413 | 109.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 15 | 42 | 13.7 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 383.3 | 108.3 |
The range of outcomes
The three-year history gives a clear picture of the variance band. Points allowed have swung from 342 (2024) to 413 (2025), and interceptions have ranged from 13 to 16. Sacks have been the most volatile category — a 11-sack spread across the three seasons. In a good year, the Lions look like the 2024 version: fewer points allowed, strong turnover numbers, and a sack total in the low-to-mid 40s. In a down year, they look like 2025 on the scoring-defense side — 413 points allowed — even while the pass rush was at its best. DST scoring is inherently volatile, and Detroit's history confirms that range is real.
How to draft him
The Lions DST is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around. At DST12 and #126 overall with a negative draft value, this is a unit best treated as a late-round or streaming option rather than a target you build around. Their bye falls in Week 6 — factor that into your roster construction if you do add them. The consistent sack and interception production makes them a viable streaming candidate in the right matchup, but the projection does not support spending meaningful draft capital here.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 110.5 points with a draft value of -18.5, meaning they project below replacement level at the DST position. They rank DST12 and #126 overall in Tier 9. The numbers support treating them as a streaming option rather than a draft-day investment.
Sacks have gone 41 (2023), 37 (2024), and 48 (2025), for a three-year average of 42. The 2025 total was the highest of the three seasons.
Over the last three seasons, the Lions have averaged 15 interceptions and 13.7 forced fumbles per year. Interceptions have been consistent at 16, 16, and 13 across 2023–2025.
The Lions DST has a Week 6 bye. If you carry them on your roster, you will need a streaming replacement that week — worth accounting for if you are already thin at DST.