#115 overall · DET · 242.4 projected half-PPR pts · -16.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 116.4
Jared Goff — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jared Goff has been one of the most consistent volume passers in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 574 pass attempts, 396.7 completions, 4,589.3 passing yards, and 33.7 passing touchdowns per season. That is a remarkably stable floor. His interception total dropped from 12 in both 2023 and 2024 down to 8 in 2025, and his fumbles lost held at 5 or fewer each year. The volume is real, the efficiency trend is moving in the right direction, and Detroit's offense has consistently kept him busy. For a drafter who waits on quarterback, Goff offers a known, high-attempt profile at a late-round price.
What the model projects
The projection is 242.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Goff at QB12 and #115 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -16.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate of 242.4 is above the median simulated season of 231.7, reflecting the shape of the outcome distribution. His bye week is Week 6.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 605 | 407 | 4575 | 30 | 12 | 32 | 21 | 2 | 6 | 297.1 |
| 2024 | 539 | 390 | 4629 | 37 | 12 | 35 | 56 | — | 6 | 334.0 |
| 2025 | 578 | 393 | 4564 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 45 | — | 6 | 305.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 574 | 396.7 | 4589.3 | 33.7 | 10.7 | 28.7 | 40.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 318.1 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 94.4 points, a number that reflects how badly a quarterback season can go. The 25th percentile sits at 173.3 points, and the median lands at 231.7. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 298.1 points and the 90th percentile hits 352.5. That top-decile outcome would represent a genuinely useful fantasy season. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile is nearly 258 points, so the range of outcomes here is substantial. Drafters should understand they are accepting real downside variance alongside the upside.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Goff at an average of pick 116.4, which works out to round 10, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That aligns closely with his #115 overall rank. If you are running a wait-on-quarterback strategy, round 10 is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His Week 6 bye is worth noting for roster planning, as it falls in a stretch where streaming options may be thin. Given the negative draft value, the case for Goff rests on the volume floor and the late-round cost, not on a projection that clears replacement level.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
Over the three seasons from 2023 to 2025, he averaged 574 pass attempts and 4,589.3 passing yards per year. That is a consistent volume profile. The projection of 242.4 points reflects that floor, though it does sit below replacement level at a draft value of -16.2.
The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 352.5 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 298.1. Those outcomes represent a meaningful range of upside above the 242.4 point projection, though the 10th-percentile floor of 94.4 points shows the downside is real.
The market ADP is 116.4, or round 10, pick 8 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick window where he is currently being selected across public drafts.
Yes. He threw 12 interceptions in both 2023 and 2024, then dropped to 8 in 2025. His three-year average is 10.7 interceptions per season.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →