#127 overall · DET · 248.8 projected half-PPR pts · -18.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 111.8
Jared Goff — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jared Goff has been one of the most consistent volume passers in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 574 pass attempts, 396.7 completions, and 4,589.3 passing yards per year. Touchdown production has been equally steady — 30 in 2023, 37 in 2024, and 34 in 2025, for a three-year average of 33.7. Interceptions ticked down to just 8 in 2025 after sitting at 12 in each of the two prior seasons, bringing the three-year average to 10.7. That combination of high volume and improving turnover efficiency is the foundation of his fantasy case. Detroit's bye falls in Week 6, which is manageable with a capable handcuff at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 248.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That output places Goff at QB10 by position rank and #127 overall, landing him in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -18.7, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at the quarterback position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 605 | 407 | 4575 | 30 | 12 | 32 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 297.1 |
| 2024 | 539 | 390 | 4629 | 37 | 12 | 35 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 334.0 |
| 2025 | 578 | 393 | 4564 | 34 | 8 | 19 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 305.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 574 | 396.7 | 4589.3 | 33.7 | 10.7 | 28.7 | 40.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 0.3 | 6 | — | — | 318.1 |
The range of outcomes
Goff's three-year stat line is notably narrow in its variance — passing yards have ranged from 4,564 to 4,629 across the last two seasons, and attempts have stayed between 539 and 605. Touchdowns are the primary swing variable, moving from 30 to 37 over that same window. Fumbles have held at exactly 6 total per season across all three years; fumbles lost were 4 in 2023 and 5 in 2025. The floor here is a high-volume, low-upside QB10-range season. The ceiling is a repeat of his 2024 touchdown pace, which would push him meaningfully above the projection.
How to draft him
Goff's market ADP is 111.8, which works out to pick 10.04 in a 12-team draft — that is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. Our model has him at #127 overall and QB10. In a single-QB league, the negative draft value (-18.7) signals he projects below replacement level, which means he is best deployed as a late-round streamer or handcuff rather than a primary starter. If you are running a two-QB or superflex format, the calculus shifts, but the replacement-level math here is built for standard single-QB construction. Target him only after your positional starters are locked in.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 248.8 half-PPR points with a draft value of -18.7, meaning he projects below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB10 and #127 overall. In a single-QB league, that profile makes him a late-round handcuff or streamer rather than a primary starter.
Very consistent. From 2023 to 2025 he averaged 574 pass attempts, 396.7 completions, and 4,589.3 passing yards per season. Touchdowns ranged from 30 to 37, averaging 33.7. Interceptions dropped from 12 in both 2023 and 2024 to 8 in 2025, with a three-year average of 10.7.
His market ADP is 111.8, which translates to pick 10.04 in a 12-team draft — so you would need to spend a 10th-round pick to land him. The model ranks him #127 overall and QB10.
He has fumbled exactly 6 times in each of the last three seasons (2023, 2024, and 2025). Fumbles lost were 4 in 2023 and 5 in 2025; the 2024 fumbles-lost figure is not available in the data.