#123 overall · PHI · 249.5 projected half-PPR pts · -17.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 84.1
Jalen Hurts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jalen Hurts is one of the most consistent dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 552 rushing yards and 12.3 rushing touchdowns per year, numbers that give him a scoring floor most quarterbacks simply cannot match through the air alone. His 2023 and 2024 seasons each produced 14 or more rushing touchdowns, and even in 2025 — when his rush attempts dropped to 105 and his rushing scores fell to 8 — he still added 25 passing touchdowns against only 6 interceptions, his cleanest turnover season of the three. The three-year average of 22 passing touchdowns and 3,328 passing yards rounds out a profile that produces points in multiple ways every week. His bye is Week 10, which is manageable in most league formats.
What the model projects
The projection for Hurts is 249.5 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That places him at QB9 by position rank and #123 overall. His draft value sits at -17.9, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. He is in Tier 9 on the overall board.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 538 | 352 | 3858 | 23 | 15 | 157 | 605 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 371.8 |
| 2024 | 361 | 248 | 2903 | 18 | 5 | 150 | 630 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 320.1 |
| 2025 | 454 | 294 | 3224 | 25 | 6 | 105 | 421 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 307.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 451 | 298 | 3328.3 | 22 | 8.7 | 137.3 | 552 | 12.3 | — | — | — | — | 7.7 | — | — | 341.4 |
The range of outcomes
Hurts's recent history illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. In 2023 he attempted 538 passes and rushed for 605 yards with 15 rushing touchdowns. In 2024 his pass attempts fell to 361 and his rushing touchdowns held at 14, but his passing yards dropped to 2,903. In 2025 his rushing attempts declined further to 105, his rushing touchdowns came in at 8, yet his passing efficiency tightened — 25 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, a 64.8% completion rate. The three-year averages (451 pass attempts, 3,328 pass yards, 22 passing TDs, 137 rush attempts, 552 rush yards, 12.3 rush TDs) mask meaningful season-to-season swings in both the passing and rushing components. A season closer to his 2023 rushing volume pushes his total well above the projection; a season where the rushing role continues to shrink pulls it toward the lower end.
How to draft him
The market is currently drafting Hurts at pick 84.1 on average — that is round 7, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at QB9 and #123 overall. In a standard snake draft, most managers operate with a late-round quarterback strategy, so knowing the market is moving on Hurts in the seventh round is the key piece of information here: if you want him, that is roughly when you need to commit. His -17.9 draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at QB, so the decision hinges on whether you believe his dual-threat floor justifies the pick cost at that stage of your draft.
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Questions drafters ask
Over 2023–2025 he averaged 137.3 rush attempts, 552 rushing yards, and 12.3 rushing touchdowns per season. The rushing touchdown totals were 15 in 2023, 14 in 2024, and 8 in 2025, so the volume has trended downward even as his passing efficiency improved.
His turnover profile improved sharply in 2025: 6 interceptions and only 3 fumbles lost, compared to 15 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost in 2023. The three-year averages are 8.7 interceptions and 7.7 fumbles per season, so 2025 was his best year on both counts.
The market median is pick 84.1, which works out to round 7, pick 12 in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal rather than a precise number — but the seventh round is roughly when you would need to spend a pick to secure him.
The projection is 249.5 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -17.9, meaning that projection falls 17.9 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR league. He ranks QB9 by position and #123 overall.