#71 overall · PHI · 258.9 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 71.4
Jalen Hurts — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat quarterback whose rushing floor separates him from most passers at his position. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 137.3 rush attempts and 552 rush yards per year, with a three-year average of 12.3 rushing touchdowns. That ground contribution is not a bonus on top of a passing line; it is a structural part of his fantasy profile. In 2025 he posted 25 passing touchdowns against only 6 interceptions, his cleanest turnover season in the sample, while still carrying 105 times for 421 yards and 8 rushing scores. The three-year passing average sits at 22 touchdowns, 3,328.3 yards, and 298 completions on 451 attempts. Fumbles are a real part of the ledger: 7.7 per year on average, with 5 lost in both 2023 and 2024 before dropping to 3 in 2025. The upside is real, the floor is real, and the risk is real.
What the model projects
The projection is 258.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That lands him at QB6 by position rank and #71 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is +0.0, meaning the projection places him right at replacement level for his position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries a Week 10 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 538 | 352 | 3858 | 23 | 15 | 157 | 605 | 15 | 7 | 371.8 |
| 2024 | 361 | 248 | 2903 | 18 | 5 | 150 | 630 | 14 | 9 | 320.1 |
| 2025 | 454 | 294 | 3224 | 25 | 6 | 105 | 421 | 8 | 7 | 307.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 451 | 298 | 3328.3 | 22 | 8.7 | 137.3 | 552 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 341.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The median outcome is 253.4 points, close to the 258.9 projection. A bad season, bottom 10% of simulated outcomes, lands at 106.6 points. A good season, top 10%, reaches 364.3 points. The 25th-to-75th-percentile core runs from 195.1 to 315.2 points. That is a substantial spread from floor to ceiling, reflecting the volatility that comes with a rushing-dependent profile. The downside scenario is severe; the upside scenario is genuinely strong.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 71.4, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 6.11 in a 12-team snake draft. The model places him at #71 overall and QB6. His bye falls in Week 10, so plan your streaming or roster depth accordingly. Given the wide outcome band, particularly the steep downside at the 10th percentile, a backup quarterback is not optional if you commit to Hurts.
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Questions drafters ask
Over 2023-2025 he averaged 137.3 rush attempts, 552 rush yards, and 12.3 rushing touchdowns per season. In 2025 specifically he carried 105 times for 421 yards and 8 rushing scores.
He has averaged 7.7 fumbles per season over the three-year window, losing 5 in 2023, 5 in 2024, and 3 in 2025. The three-year average for fumbles lost is included in that broader fumble total, and 2025 was the best of the three years on that front.
The 10th-percentile simulated outcome is 106.6 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 195.1. That floor is steep enough that a streaming or handcuff plan at quarterback is worth building into your roster construction.
Market ADP is 71.4 across two platforms, which works out to pick 6.11 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want him, that is roughly when you need to spend the pick.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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