#121 overall · BAL · 94.6 projected half-PPR pts · -17.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 117.4
Mark Andrews — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Mark Andrews has been one of Baltimore's most consistent receiving options over the past three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 66.7 targets, 49.3 receptions, 546.3 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown upside is real — he posted 11 receiving scores in 2024 alone, on 55 catches for 673 yards. That kind of red-zone production keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats even when the yardage totals are modest. He also added a rushing dimension in 2025, carrying 10 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, giving him a small but genuine multi-faceted role in the Baltimore offense. For drafters who want a proven target in a run-heavy system, Andrews has demonstrated he can deliver touchdowns at a rate that makes him worth rostering.
What the model projects
The projection for Andrews in 2026 is 94.6 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -17.3, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE14 and #121 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. These numbers reflect a player whose projected output, while not negligible, does not clear the bar set by the replacement-level tight end in a standard 12-team half-PPR league. Baltimore has a Week 13 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 45 | 544 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 112.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 69 | 55 | 673 | 11 | — | 0 | 0 | 161.3 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 48 | 1 | 70 | 48 | 422 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 107.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 17.7 | 0.3 | 66.7 | 49.3 | 546.3 | 7.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 126.6 |
The range of outcomes
Andrews's recent history illustrates how wide his season-to-season variance can be. In 2024 he caught 55 balls for 673 yards and 11 touchdowns. In 2025 he caught 48 balls for 422 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns, with a fumble. In 2023 he caught 45 balls for 544 yards and 6 receiving touchdowns, also with a fumble. The three-year receiving touchdown average of 7.3 per season sits between those poles, but the individual seasons show that the touchdown rate can swing sharply in either direction. A season closer to the 2024 line would push his fantasy value well above the current projection; a season closer to the 2025 line keeps him firmly in the replacement-level range. Drafters are buying a player whose floor and ceiling are meaningfully different.
How to draft him
Andrews is going at pick 10.09 in 12-team drafts, a median drawn from two platforms. He ranks #121 overall and TE14 by draft value. At that draft slot, you are spending a 10th-round pick on a player the model places in Tier 9 with a negative draft value. If you want him on your roster, Round 10 is when the market says you need to act. Given his touchdown variance, he is a reasonable late-round dart if you have already secured your starting tight end and are looking for a high-ceiling handcuff or streamer — but his -17.3 draft value means the projection does not make him a must-start on its own merits.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 94.6 half-PPR points and a draft value of -17.3 place him below replacement level at tight end — he ranks TE14 and #121 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers suggest he is better suited as a secondary option or streamer than a locked-in starter.
Over the past three seasons he has averaged 66.7 targets, 49.3 receptions, 546.3 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per year. His best season in that stretch was 2024 (55 receptions, 673 yards, 11 TDs); his lightest was 2025 (48 receptions, 422 yards, 5 receiving TDs).
The market median across two platforms has him going at pick 10.09 in a 12-team draft — Round 10. If you want him, that is the round where you would need to spend a pick.
Quite volatile. He scored 11 receiving touchdowns in 2024, 6 in 2023, and 5 in 2025. His three-year average is 7.3 per season, but the individual seasons show the number can move significantly in either direction year to year.