Mark Andrews — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Mark Andrews has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the NFL over the past three seasons. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 66.7 targets, 49.3 receptions, 546.3 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The touchdown rate is the anchor here. In 2024 he caught 11 receiving touchdowns on 69 targets, and even in a reduced 2025 campaign he still found the end zone five times on the ground and through the air combined. His role in Baltimore's offense has included a growing rushing component, with 10 rush attempts for 48 yards and a rushing touchdown in 2025, adding a wrinkle that keeps defenses honest. Andrews is a tight end who earns his targets in the red zone, and that is where fantasy points are made.

What the model projects

The projection for Andrews is 97.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -22.0, which places him #130 overall and TE14 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player projecting below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection of 97.7 points is the headline figure, and it sits below the median simulated season of 107.9 points, meaning the point estimate leans conservative relative to the middle of his outcome distribution.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band for Andrews is wide, and that width is the defining feature of his profile. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 42.9 points. The 25th percentile lands at 72.9 points. The median simulated season is 107.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 130.4 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at or above 158.0 points. That is a spread of more than 115 points between the p10 and p90 outcomes. A drafter targeting Andrews is accepting real downside risk in exchange for access to a ceiling that, in his best simulated seasons, looks like a weekly starter. The floor, however, is a season that barely contributes.

How to draft him

Andrews carries a market ADP of 127.3, which works out to pick 11.07 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round pick, and at that stage of a draft a drafter is typically filling out a roster rather than anchoring it. His bye is Week 13, which falls late in the fantasy regular season and is worth noting for roster planning. At TE14 with a negative draft value, Andrews is a speculative play on his upside rather than a foundational piece. If a drafter reaches the 11th round without a tight end and wants to bet on the touchdown upside that his three-year history demonstrates, Andrews is the name on the list at that price. Go in with eyes open on the floor.

He projects at 97.7 half-PPR points and ranks TE14 with a draft value of -22.0, meaning he projects below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His median simulated season is 107.9 points, but his p10 outcome is just 42.9 points. He can be a starter in the right weeks, but the floor is real.

Over the past three seasons Andrews has averaged 66.7 targets, 49.3 receptions, 546.3 receiving yards, and 7.3 receiving touchdowns per year. His best recent season was 2024, when he posted 673 receiving yards and 11 receiving touchdowns on 69 targets. In 2025 he added a rushing dimension with 10 rush attempts, 48 rush yards, and a rushing touchdown.

His market ADP is 127.3, which translates to pick 11.07 in a 12-team snake draft. If you want Andrews, you are spending an 11th-round pick to get him.

Very wide. The band runs from 42.9 points at the 10th percentile to 158.0 points at the 90th percentile, a spread of more than 115 points. The median simulated season is 107.9 points. That variance is the central fact of his profile.