#125 overall · MIN · 110.0 projected half-PPR pts · -18.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 111.4
Aaron Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Aaron Jones has shown he can be a genuine three-down back when the workload is there. In 2024 he posted 255 rush attempts, 1,138 rush yards, 5 rushing touchdowns, 51 receptions on 62 targets, and 408 receiving yards, a season that demonstrated both volume and pass-game involvement. His three-year averages back that up: 176.3 rush attempts, 780.7 rush yards, and 48.7 targets per season. The receiving work is real and consistent, with at least 28 receptions in each of the last three years. For a drafter looking for a back who contributes in multiple phases, that floor of involvement is the core of the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 110.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Jones sits at #125 overall and RB34, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -18.5, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 112.0 points, close to the point estimate. His bye week is Week 6.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 142 | 656 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 233 | 1 | 2 | 119.9 |
| 2024 | 255 | 1138 | 5 | 62 | 51 | 408 | 2 | 5 | 216.1 |
| 2025 | 132 | 548 | 2 | 41 | 28 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 104.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 176.3 | 780.7 | 3 | 48.7 | 36.3 | 280 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 150.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 31.9 points, a near-total loss of fantasy value. The 25th percentile sits at 65.2 points, still a difficult season to roster. The median is 112.0 points. The 75th percentile reaches 156.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 200.8 points. That upper band reflects what Jones showed in 2024, but the lower band reflects what his 2023 and 2025 lines looked like: 142 and 132 rush attempts, 656 and 548 rush yards, and modest touchdown totals. The three-year average of 2.7 fumbles per season is also a factor worth noting, with 1.3 fumbles lost per year on average. The range here is genuinely extreme, and drafters should price that variance in.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Jones going at pick 111.4, which works out to round 10, pick 3 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend to secure him. The model has him at #125 overall and RB34 with a negative draft value, so this is a late-round flier territory. His 2024 season sets a real upside ceiling, but the 2023 and 2025 lines are a reminder that the floor is low. If you are targeting him as a depth piece or handcuff-adjacent option with receiving upside, round 10 is the window. Do not count on him as a starter without a clear path to the 2024-level workload.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 110.0 half-PPR fantasy points. Jones ranks #125 overall and RB34, placing him in Tier 9 with a draft value of -18.5.
Market ADP puts him at pick 111.4, or round 10, pick 3 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick you would need to spend based on where public drafts are currently taking him.
The band runs from 31.9 points at the 10th percentile to 200.8 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 112.0 points. The spread is wide, reflecting meaningful variance between his strong 2024 season and his lighter 2023 and 2025 lines.
He has posted at least 28 receptions and 41 targets in each of the last three seasons. His three-year averages are 36.3 receptions and 48.7 targets per year, with 280 receiving yards per season on average. The receiving role is a consistent part of his profile.
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Beyond the numbers
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