#122 overall · MIN · 99.1 projected half-PPR pts · -17.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 101.2
Aaron Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Aaron Jones is a receiving back with a real role in the passing game. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 48.7 targets and 36.3 receptions per year, and his 2024 campaign showed what a full workload looks like: 255 rush attempts, 1,138 rush yards, 51 receptions on 62 targets, 408 receiving yards, and 7 total touchdowns. That is a legitimate three-down profile. His 2024 numbers are the clearest evidence that when the opportunity is there, Jones can produce across all three phases of the backfield game.
What the model projects
The projection for Jones is 99.1 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -17.7, placing him #122 overall and RB33. He lands in Tier 9 on the board. The projection reflects a back whose three-year averages — 176.3 rush attempts, 780.7 rush yards, 3.0 rush touchdowns, 36.3 receptions, 280.0 receiving yards, and 1.3 receiving touchdowns per season — anchor the baseline, with 2024's fuller workload and 2025's lighter one both factored into the spread.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | 656 | 2 | 43 | 30 | 233 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 119.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 1138 | 5 | 62 | 51 | 408 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 216.1 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 548 | 2 | 41 | 28 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 104.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 176.3 | 780.7 | 3 | 48.7 | 36.3 | 280 | 1.3 | 2.7 | — | — | 150.0 |
The range of outcomes
Jones carries meaningful variance. His season-to-season stat lines have shifted noticeably across the three-year window: rush attempts ranged from 132 to 255, rush yards from 548 to 1,138, and receptions from 28 to 51. The fumble rate is a real concern — he has lost at least one fumble in each of the last three seasons and lost three in 2024. The upside case is a workload closer to his 2024 line; the downside case looks more like 2025. Both are plausible outcomes, and the gap between them is wide enough to matter in a snake draft.
How to draft him
Jones is going off the board at an average pick of 101.2 — round 9, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #122 overall and RB33. Plan to spend a pick in the ninth round if you want him. His bye is Week 6, which is early enough to manage with a handcuff or a waiver-wire add. At this stage of a draft, roster construction flexibility matters — know your RB depth before the pick arrives.
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Questions drafters ask
Jones posted 255 rush attempts for 1,138 rush yards and 5 rush touchdowns, added 51 receptions on 62 targets for 408 receiving yards and 2 receiving touchdowns — 7 total touchdowns on the season.
The projection is 99.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That gives him a draft value of -17.7, ranking him #122 overall and RB33.
His market ADP is 101.2, which works out to round 9, pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms.
Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 48.7 targets, 36.3 receptions, and 280.0 receiving yards per year — a steady receiving role across all three seasons.