#141 overall · DAL · 91.3 projected half-PPR pts · -20.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 120.8
Jake Ferguson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Ferguson has been a consistent volume presence at tight end for Dallas over the past three seasons. He has averaged 96.7 targets and 70.7 receptions per year across 2023–2025, numbers that reflect a genuine role in the offense. His 2025 season stands out: 102 targets, 82 receptions, 600 receiving yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns — the touchdowns representing a sharp uptick from the zero he posted in 2024. His 2023 campaign showed he can produce yardage in volume, with 761 receiving yards on 71 catches from 102 targets. The three-year averages paint a picture of a tight end who sees the ball regularly and, when the touchdowns fall his way, can deliver a meaningful fantasy season.
What the model projects
The projection for Ferguson is 91.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -20.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE16 and #141 overall, placed in Tier 9 on the board. Dallas has a Week 14 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 141.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 59 | 494 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 74.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 145.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.3 | 0.3 | — | 96.7 | 70.7 | 618.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | — | — | 123.0 |
The range of outcomes
Ferguson's recent history illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. In 2024 he posted zero receiving touchdowns on 86 targets and 494 receiving yards — a floor season. In 2025 he matched his 2023 target volume (102) and turned it into 8 scores and 600 yards — a ceiling season. The three-year average of 4.3 receiving touchdowns per year sits between those poles. Fumble issues are a real factor: he has lost 2 fumbles in each of the last two seasons. The upside is real when the touchdowns arrive; the downside is equally real when they don't.
How to draft him
Market ADP for Ferguson is 120.8 — round 11, pick 1 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. Our rank is #141 overall. If you want Ferguson, the market is currently pricing him in the 11th round. At TE16 with a negative draft value, he is a late-round dart at a position where touchdown variance can swing a season dramatically in either direction. Plan your roster construction accordingly and know that his bye falls in Week 14.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2025 he caught 82 passes on 102 targets for 600 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns — his highest touchdown total across the three seasons on record.
In 2024 Ferguson posted 59 receptions, 494 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns on 86 targets. He also lost 2 fumbles that season, the same fumble-lost total he repeated in 2025.
He projects for 91.3 half-PPR fantasy points, ranks TE16 at his position, and sits at #141 overall in Tier 9. His draft value of -20.6 places him below replacement level at tight end.
His market ADP is 120.8, which works out to round 11, pick 1 in a 12-team draft. That figure is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional read rather than a precise consensus.