#136 overall · DAL · 97.2 projected half-PPR pts · -23.5 Draft Value · Market ADP 124.8
Jake Ferguson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jake Ferguson has been a consistent volume producer at tight end for Dallas. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 96.7 targets and 70.7 receptions per year, with his 2025 campaign representing a career high in catches (82) and touchdowns (8) while matching his 2023 target total of 102. That 2025 line, 102 targets, 82 receptions, 600 yards, and 8 scores, is the kind of usage that keeps a tight end relevant in half-PPR formats. The three-year average of 4.3 receiving touchdowns understates where he finished most recently, and the 2025 touchdown total is the clearest argument for his continued relevance heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection for Ferguson is 97.2 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -23.5, placing him #136 overall and TE15. He sits in Tier 9. The projection lands below his 2025 actual production, and the negative draft value means he projects below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the honest read on where the model puts him.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 102 | 71 | 761 | 5 | — | 141.6 |
| 2024 | 86 | 59 | 494 | — | 4 | 74.9 |
| 2025 | 102 | 82 | 600 | 8 | 3 | 145.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 96.7 | 70.7 | 618.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 123.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 42.6 points, a figure that reflects how volatile tight end production can be. The 25th percentile sits at 72.3 points. The median simulated season lands at 107.2 points, above the point estimate of 97.2. The 75th percentile reaches 129.8 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 157.6 points. The gap between the p10 floor (42.6) and the p90 ceiling (157.6) is substantial, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance in outcomes. A drafter targeting Ferguson is accepting real downside risk alongside a ceiling that would make him a weekly starter.
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our projection
How to draft him
Ferguson's market ADP is 124.8, which works out to the 11th round, 5th pick in a 12-team draft (based on a median across two platforms). Our rankings place him #136 overall and TE15. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the 11th round. Given his negative draft value and TE15 position rank, he is a late-round flier rather than a foundational piece. His bye is Week 14, which falls during the fantasy playoff window in most leagues, so factor that into roster construction. Ferguson makes the most sense as a depth option for a drafter who has already secured a higher-ranked tight end and wants a high-target-volume backup.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 82 passes on 102 targets for 600 yards and 8 touchdowns, also losing 2 fumbles. The 8 receiving touchdowns were a career high across the three seasons on record.
Ferguson is TE15 with a projected 97.2 half-PPR points and a draft value of -23.5, which is below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks #136 overall and sits in Tier 9.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 157.6 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile outcome is 129.8 points, so a strong season is possible, but the median simulated season of 107.2 points is the more typical expectation.
His market ADP is 124.8, which translates to Round 11, Pick 5 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the current market price for securing him on your roster.
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Beyond the numbers
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