#147 overall · LV · 99.6 projected half-PPR pts · -29.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 162.4
Tre Tucker — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tre Tucker has posted three consecutive seasons of growth in Las Vegas. He went from 34 targets and 331 receiving yards in 2023 to 81 targets and 539 yards in 2024, then pushed further to 92 targets, 57 receptions, 696 receiving yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns in 2025. That 2025 line is the clearest version of what Tucker can be: a receiver who earns volume, converts it at a reasonable clip, and adds a modest rushing wrinkle on roughly 11 carries a season. The three-year averages confirm the trajectory rather than contradict it: 69 targets, 41 receptions, 522 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season. For a drafter willing to wait until the final rounds, that kind of consistent upward movement is worth tracking.
What the model projects
The projection is 99.6 half-PPR fantasy points. Tucker ranks #147 overall and WR59, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -29.2, meaning the projection places him below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That is the honest read: the numbers reflect a player who contributes but does not clear the bar that separates starters from depth in this format.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 34 | 19 | 331 | 2 | 10 | 77 | — | 62.3 |
| 2024 | 81 | 47 | 539 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 1 | 105.8 |
| 2025 | 92 | 57 | 696 | 5 | 11 | 51 | — | 133.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 69 | 41 | 522 | 3.3 | 10 | 57.3 | 0.3 | 100.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is typical for a receiver at this tier. The bottom 10% of simulated seasons land at 27.7 points, a near-zero fantasy contribution. The 25th percentile is 52.8 points, still well below replacement. The median simulated season is 87.3 points, short of the 99.6 point projection, which signals meaningful upside skew. The 75th percentile reaches 123.3 points and the top 10% of simulated seasons hit 171.3 points. That upper band is the scenario a drafter is buying: Tucker's target share holds or grows, the touchdowns stay near his 2025 pace, and the rushing touches add a few bonus points. The floor is real and low; the ceiling is a functional flex contributor.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 162.4, which works out to pick 14.06 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Tucker ranks #147 overall by draft value. He is a late-round flier, the kind of pick made after a roster is already built. His bye is Week 13, worth noting for playoff-week roster management. At this stage of a draft, the calculus is simple: if the upside band near 171.3 points fits a need on your roster, the pick costs almost nothing.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection of 99.6 points and a draft value of -29.2 put him below replacement level at WR in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks WR59 and #147 overall. He is a depth or stash option, not a reliable starter, but his 2025 season of 92 targets, 696 yards, and 5 touchdowns shows the ceiling is real if circumstances break right.
He saw 34 targets in 2023, 81 in 2024, and 92 in 2025. The three-year average is 69 targets per season. The direction is consistently upward across all three years.
The band runs from 27.7 points at the 10th percentile to 171.3 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 87.3 points. That is a very wide spread, meaning Tucker's actual fantasy output in any given season could range from near-irrelevant to a functional flex contributor depending on how the season unfolds.
His market ADP is 162.4, which translates to pick 14.06 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. He is a Round 14 target in most drafts.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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