#58 overall · CLE · 130.7 projected half-PPR pts · +10.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 78.3
Harold Fannin — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Harold Fannin's 2025 season is the entire three-year record, and it holds up. He ran 107 targets, caught 72 of them, and turned those into 731 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. That target volume is a real foundation: 107 looks in a single season is a workload that produces consistent fantasy relevance at the tight end position. He added a rushing touchdown on seven carries, giving him seven total touchdowns on the year. The fumble lost is a minor blemish on an otherwise clean profile. At TE4 with a positive draft value, Fannin sits in a tier where the production is real and the path to weekly relevance is clear.
What the model projects
The projection is 130.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Fannin at #58 overall and TE4, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +10.2, meaning the projection lands above replacement level at the tight end position. The median simulated season, at 141.2 points, runs slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution. Both numbers point to a player who projects as a reliable weekly contributor at the position.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 107 | 72 | 731 | 6 | 1 | 150.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 107 | 72 | 731 | 6 | 1 | 152.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which is worth understanding before you draft him. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 75.5 points. The 25th percentile is 105.8. The median sits at 141.2. The 75th percentile reaches 163.7, and the top 10% of simulated seasons land at or above 191.1 points. That is a spread of roughly 115 points between the bad-season floor and the great-season ceiling. The upside at p90 is genuine. The downside at p10 is a season that falls well short of the projection. Drafters should price in that variance when deciding how much of their roster construction to anchor around Fannin.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Fannin at pick 78.3 on average, which works out to the 7th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the window you are working with. If you want him, plan to spend a pick in that neighborhood. His bye is Week 11, so account for that when building your roster depth. At TE4 with a +10.2 draft value, he is a player the rankings treat as above replacement level at the position, and the 2025 target volume gives that projection a real statistical base to stand on.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 72 of 107 targets for 731 receiving yards and six receiving touchdowns. He also added seven rush attempts for 13 yards and a rushing touchdown, giving him seven total touchdowns on the season.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 75.5 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 105.8. The outcome band is wide, so a bad season is meaningfully below the 130.7-point projection.
The market average is pick 78.3, which is round 7, pick 6 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick range where you should expect to spend if you want him on your roster.
Fannin's bye is Week 11. Plan your roster depth accordingly so you are not caught short at tight end that week.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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