#62 overall · DEN · 132.2 projected half-PPR pts · +9.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 73.0
Courtland Sutton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Courtland Sutton has been one of the more durable and consistent volume receivers in Denver over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 116.3 targets, 71.3 receptions, and 956.7 receiving yards per season — a floor built on genuine target share, not circumstance. His 2024 season was his best of the three: 135 targets, 81 catches, 1,081 yards, and 8 receiving touchdowns. He followed that with 124 targets, 74 catches, 1,017 yards, and 7 scores in 2025. The volume has been real and repeatable. His three-year average of 8.3 receiving touchdowns per season adds meaningful scoring upside to an already sturdy yardage base. For a drafter building a roster around reliable production rather than boom-or-bust swings, Sutton's track record makes a straightforward case.
What the model projects
The model projects Sutton at 132.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That projection places him at #62 overall and WR33, sitting in Tier 7 on the board. His draft value comes in at +9.7, meaning he projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position. The projection is consistent with his three-year historical averages — it does not require a career year, just a continuation of the target volume and touchdown rate he has demonstrated across multiple seasons. His bye week falls on Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 59 | 772 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 160.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 81 | 1081 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 199.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 124 | 74 | 1017 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 180.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.7 | 0.7 | 10 | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | 116.3 | 71.3 | 956.7 | 8.3 | 1.3 | — | — | 182.7 |
The range of outcomes
Sutton's simulated season outcomes show a meaningful spread. At the low end, a bottom-10% season (p10) lands at a difficult place for fantasy rosters; the median simulated season (p50) aligns closely with the 132.2 point projection; and a top-10% breakout (p90) reflects the upside that comes when target volume and touchdown luck both run hot in the same year. The primary risk factor embedded in his history is fumbles — he lost all 3 fumbles in 2023 and 1 in 2024, a small but real drag on his floor. The upside case is straightforward: his 2023 season produced 10 receiving touchdowns on just 772 yards, demonstrating that his touchdown rate can spike independently of yardage volume. The downside case is a regression in targets or a cold stretch in the red zone, both of which have precedent in his profile.
How to draft him
Sutton's market ADP is 73.0, which works out to pick 7.01 in a 12-team snake draft — the first pick of the seventh round. That is the moment in a draft where you would need to spend a selection to secure him. The model has him at #62 overall and WR33. He carries a positive draft value of +9.7, confirming he projects above replacement level. In a 12-team half-PPR format, the seventh round is a reasonable window to target a receiver with his volume history and touchdown upside. Know his bye (Week 10) and plan your roster depth accordingly.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 116.3 targets per season from 2023 through 2025, with individual season totals of 90 (2023), 135 (2024), and 124 (2025). That is a consistent, high-volume role in Denver's passing game.
His market ADP of 73.0 translates to pick 7.01 in a 12-team draft — the very first pick of Round 7. That is when you would need to spend a selection to land him.
He scored 10 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 7 in 2025, for a three-year average of 8.3 per season. The projection of 132.2 points does not require an outlier touchdown season — it is grounded in that established average.
His p10 simulated outcome represents a bottom-10% season result. Historical risk factors include fumble losses (3 lost in 2023, 1 in 2024) and the possibility of a red-zone regression, as his 2025 touchdown total of 7 was already a step down from his 2023 peak of 10.