Courtland Sutton — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Courtland Sutton has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, logging 1,081 yards in 2024 and 1,017 in 2025. Over the last three years he has averaged 116.3 targets, 71.3 receptions, 956.7 receiving yards, and 8.3 receiving touchdowns per season. That target volume is the foundation of his case: he has been a consistent focal point of the Denver passing game, and the three-year averages show that consistency is not a one-year story. His 2024 season in particular demonstrated a high-usage ceiling, with 135 targets and 81 catches. A receiver who regularly sees that kind of volume and converts it into 1,000-yard output is a reliable floor-builder in half-PPR formats.

What the model projects

The projection is 136.9 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That puts Sutton at #63 overall and WR27, sitting in Tier 8. His draft value is +7.9 points above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format, meaning the model sees him as a net-positive addition over what you could expect to find at the position later in a draft. The median simulated season lands at 141.2 points, which is close to but slightly above the point estimate of 136.9. His bye week is Week 10.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, which reflects the genuine season-to-season variance a receiver in his situation carries. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 61.0 points. The 25th percentile sits at 98.9 points, a below-average but functional season. The median simulated outcome is 141.2 points. The 75th percentile reaches 175.6 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 212.3 points or better. That upper band is meaningful: a strong touchdown rate, as Sutton showed with 10 scores in 2023 and 8 in 2024, can push him well into WR2 territory. The downside, however, is real. His 2023 season produced only 772 receiving yards despite 90 targets, and three fumbles lost that year are a reminder that floor risk exists. The spread from p10 to p90 runs more than 150 points, so drafters should enter with clear eyes about both ends.

How to draft him

Sutton's market ADP is 71.4, which translates to pick 6.11 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #63 overall and WR27. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the sixth round. His bye falls in Week 10, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that week. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best as a mid-roster receiver on a team that already has a locked-in WR1 and WR2, where his upside can be a genuine weekly difference-maker without the roster depending on his floor.

The facts support both readings. He has averaged 116.3 targets and 956.7 receiving yards per season over the last three years, which is a WR2-caliber workload. But his outcome band runs from 61.0 points at the 10th percentile to 212.3 at the 90th, a spread of more than 150 points. The projection of 136.9 points and a WR27 rank reflect a player with a solid median but meaningful variance in either direction.

His market ADP is 71.4, which works out to pick 6.11 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the current market price based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, plan to spend a sixth-round pick.

Very consistent over the three-year window in FACTS. He saw 90 targets in 2023, 135 in 2024, and 124 in 2025, for a three-year average of 116.3 targets per season. That kind of sustained target share is one of the stronger indicators of floor at the wide receiver position.

Sutton scored 10 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 8 in 2024, and 7 in 2025, for a three-year average of 8.3 per season. That is a meaningful and consistent scoring rate. The projection of 136.9 points and the upper end of his outcome band at 212.3 points both reflect a player who can deliver genuine touchdown upside, though the wide band makes it clear that touchdown variance is a real factor in his season-to-season outcomes.