Greg Joseph — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Greg Joseph is a kicker with legitimate long-range production on his resume. In 2023 he connected on 7 of his 30 attempts from 40 yards or beyond, including 4 from 50-plus, and finished the season 24-for-30 overall. That kind of range matters in half-PPR formats where every made field goal counts. His three-year average of 20 made field goals per season on 25 attempts shows a kicker who sees consistent volume when active. Now with Las Vegas, he lands in a situation that could generate plenty of scoring opportunities.

What the model projects

The projection is 66.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draft value of -104.8, placing Joseph at K39 and #435 overall in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect where kickers as a group sit relative to replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is the headline figure; the band tells a different story about variance, which is addressed in the next section.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band on Joseph is exceptionally wide, and the low end is severe. The p10 and p25 both sit at 0.0 points, meaning a meaningful share of simulated seasons end with him scoring nothing at all. The median simulated season (p50) is just 9.0 points. The p75 reaches 29.8, and the p90 climbs to 111.8. That 111.8 ceiling is real, but so is the floor. The three-year aggregate shows 4.5 missed field goals per season on 25 attempts, and 2024 brought only 16 makes on 20 tries with just 11 extra points. The variance here is not a minor consideration; it is the defining feature of this projection.

How to draft him

Joseph does not have a market ADP available, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, that makes him a late-game or post-draft addition rather than a planned pick. At K39 and #435 overall, he sits deep in Tier 9. If you are filling a kicker slot in the final rounds of a draft and he is still on the list, the projection and the historical volume are the relevant inputs. The wide outcome band, particularly the 0.0 floor at the 25th percentile, is the primary risk to weigh before committing a pick.

He ranks K39 and #435 overall with a draft value of -104.8, placing him in Tier 9. The projection is 66.3 points, but the p25 outcome is 0.0 and the median simulated season is just 9.0 points. The upside exists (p90 of 111.8), but the floor is severe. He has no market ADP, so he is not a planned pick for most drafters.

In 2023 he went 24-for-30 on field goals with 4 makes from 50-plus yards and 36 extra points. In 2024 he made 16 of 20 field goals with only 11 extra points. His three-year average is 20 made field goals and 23.5 extra points per season on 25 attempts, with 4.5 misses per season.

Very wide. The p10 and p25 are both 0.0 points. The p50 (median simulated season) is 9.0 points. The p75 is 29.8 and the p90 reaches 111.8. That spread from zero to over 111 points is the central risk-reward consideration with this player.

He has no market ADP, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. At K39 and #435 overall, he is a deep-list option. If he is available in the final rounds and you need a kicker, the historical volume and long-range accuracy are points in his favor, but the outcome band's low floor warrants caution.