#419 overall · NYJ · 69.1 projected half-PPR pts · -105.2 Draft Value
Anders Carlson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Anders Carlson is on the NYJ roster and carries a 2023 season on his résumé that showed genuine range: 27 field goals made on 33 attempts, including 4 from 40–49 yards and 3 from 50-plus, alongside 34 extra points. That is a workload that demonstrates he can handle a full NFL kicking slate when the opportunity is there. The 2024 season was a reduced one — 13 field goals made on 15 attempts, 3 of those from 50-plus — but the accuracy held, with only 2 misses on 15 tries. The three-year aggregate (2023–2025) shows 20 field goals made on 24 attempts with 4 misses and 23 extra points on 27 tries. For a drafter who wants a kicker with demonstrated long-range capability and a recent stretch of clean accuracy, Carlson's track record is the argument.
What the model projects
The projection is 69.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Carlson ranks K38 at the position and #419 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -105.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These numbers reflect where the model lands — they are the figures to anchor any decision around him.
| FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 27 | 6 | 34 | 119.0 |
| 2024 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 60.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 20 | 4 | 23 | 19.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band on Carlson is wide and skewed. The p10 and p25 both sit at 0.0 points — in the bottom quarter of simulated seasons, the projection produces nothing. The median simulated season (p50) lands at just 9.2 points. The p75 reaches 27.6, and the p90 climbs to 114.5. That top-decile outcome is meaningful, but the floor is stark: more than half of simulated seasons finish at or below 9.2 points. This is a high-variance profile with a heavy downside tail and a real but infrequent upside spike.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Carlson is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no pick-cost signal to report. At K38 and #419 overall in Tier 9, with a negative draft value, he sits well outside the range where most 12-team snake drafts will spend meaningful picks. If a roster spot opens late and the 2023 workload or the 2024 accuracy rate is the draw, the facts above are the full picture — the projection and the band are what they are, and the decision should rest on them.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he made 27 of 33 field goal attempts — 20 from inside 40 yards, 4 from 40–49, and 3 from 50-plus — while converting 34 of 39 extra point attempts, with 6 total misses on field goals.
The projection is 69.1 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks K38 at his position and #419 overall, with a draft value of -105.2, placing him in Tier 9.
The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 and p25 all the way to 114.5 at the p90, with a median simulated season of just 9.2 points and a p75 of 27.6. The floor is significant — more than half of simulated seasons finish at or below 9.2 points.
There is no market ADP available for Carlson, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. His rank of K38 and #419 overall with a negative draft value place him at the very back end of any 12-team snake draft consideration.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →