Dontayvion Wicks — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Dontayvion Wicks has now posted three consecutive seasons of at least 30 receptions and 46 targets, showing a floor of involvement that has held across different contexts. His 2024 season was his most efficient in the red zone, producing five receiving touchdowns on 76 targets. The 2025 campaign added two more scores on a leaner 46-target diet. Over the three-year aggregate, he averages 60 targets, 36 receptions, 442.7 receiving yards, and 3.7 receiving touchdowns per season. That touchdown rate relative to his target share is the most compelling piece of his case. Now with Philadelphia, he enters a new situation that could reshape his role entirely.

What the model projects

The projection is 83.4 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Wicks at #196 overall and WR74, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -45.4, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 83.4 points reflects a modest but real workload expectation, consistent with a depth receiver who contributes in waves rather than as a weekly anchor.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Wicks as a fantasy asset. The p10 outcome is 13.2 points, a near-zero season. The p25 sits at 32.8 points. The median simulated season lands at 63.9 points, below the 83.4 point estimate, which signals that the upside tail is pulling the projection above the typical outcome. The p75 is 100.5 points and the p90 reaches 153.4 points. That top-decile outcome is nearly twelve times the bottom-decile figure. This is a high-variance profile: most simulated seasons are quiet, but the ceiling is real and meaningful. Drafters should enter with that asymmetry clearly in mind.

How to draft him

The market is placing Wicks at an average draft position of 192.1, which works out to pick 16.12 in a 12-team snake draft. That is a late-round flier territory, the kind of pick where roster construction is essentially complete and the goal is upside. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for lineup planning. At this stage of a draft, the question is simply whether his ceiling scenario, a p90 of 153.4 points, is worth the final-round cost. The projection of 83.4 points and a -45.4 draft value say he is not a lock to contribute, but the band says the good version of his season is a genuine fantasy asset.

Over the 2023-2025 span, he averaged 60 targets, 36 receptions, 442.7 receiving yards, and 3.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His single-season highs are 76 targets (2024), 581 receiving yards (2023), and five receiving touchdowns (2024).

The p90 simulated outcome is 153.4 half-PPR fantasy points, meaning roughly one in ten simulated seasons reaches that level or higher. The p75 outcome is 100.5 points, so a strong-but-not-elite season clears triple digits about a quarter of the time.

The market ADP is 192.1, or pick 16.12 in a 12-team draft. That is a final-round selection in most standard formats, so the cost is minimal in terms of draft capital.

Below. His draft value is -45.4, which means the 83.4-point projection sits beneath the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format. He is a speculative add, not a projected contributor at the position.