Darren Waller — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Darren Waller is a veteran tight end now with Carolina, and the surface-level case rests almost entirely on touchdown upside. In 2025 he caught 24 passes for 283 yards but scored 6 receiving touchdowns on just 34 targets. That touchdown rate on a modest volume line is the one number that keeps him relevant in half-PPR formats. His 2023 season showed a different version of the player: 74 targets, 52 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and 1 touchdown. The three-year average across 2023 and 2025 settles at 54 targets, 38 receptions, 417.5 receiving yards, and 3.5 receiving touchdowns per season. The argument for rostering him is simple: if the touchdowns stay elevated and the target share grows even modestly, the point total climbs fast.

What the model projects

The projection is 56.5 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. That lands Waller at TE32 and #250 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -64.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season, at 56.7 points, tracks closely with the point estimate, confirming the projection is not being pulled by outlier scenarios in either direction.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide relative to the projection, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance at this stage of Waller's career. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 15.4 points, a near-total non-factor. The 25th percentile comes in at 32.0 points. The median sits at 56.7. The 75th percentile reaches 80.9 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons climbs to 113.7 points. That p90 number is meaningful: a high-touchdown, higher-volume version of Waller can produce genuine fantasy value. The floor, however, is severe. The gap between the p10 and p90 outcomes spans nearly 100 points, so drafters are accepting real variance with essentially no projection-level safety net.

How to draft him

Waller does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough on major platforms to generate one. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in most formats. His bye is Week 5, worth noting if you are stacking tight ends. At TE32 with a negative draft value, he belongs in the conversation only as a speculative add in deeper leagues or as a touchdown-dependent flier in the final rounds of a draft. The upside at p90 is real; the floor at p10 is nearly worthless. Roster him only if you can absorb the variance.

The projection of 56.5 points and a draft value of -64.1 put him below replacement level at TE32. He is a speculative option only, best suited for deeper leagues or as a late-round touchdown flier.

In 2025 he scored 6 receiving touchdowns on just 34 targets and 24 receptions. His three-year average is 3.5 receiving touchdowns per season, so the 2025 rate was well above his own baseline.

The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces just 15.4 fantasy points for the year. The 25th percentile is 32.0 points. The floor is severe, and drafters should plan accordingly.

Waller does not have a market ADP in 2026 public drafts. He is not being selected consistently enough across platforms to generate one, so he is available as a late-round or waiver-wire add in most leagues.