Caleb Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Caleb Williams has back-to-back seasons of volume that is hard to ignore. In 2025 he attempted 568 passes, completed 330 of them for 3,942 yards, and threw 27 touchdown passes against 7 interceptions, adding 383 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns on 77 carries. The 2024 season showed a similar workload: 562 attempts, 3,541 yards, 20 touchdowns. Averaged across the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he sits at 565 pass attempts, 3,741.5 passing yards, and 23.5 passing touchdowns per season, with roughly 79 rush attempts and 436 rush yards per year. That is a consistent, high-volume profile at a position where usage is the foundation of fantasy value. The rushing contribution is real and repeatable: 81 carries in 2024, 77 in 2025, with touchdowns on the ground in 2025. Fumble control improved sharply from 2024 to 2025, dropping from 5 fumbles lost to just 1. The raw ingredients for a productive fantasy season are present.

What the model projects

The projection for Williams is 241.5 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -17.9, placing him QB13 and #124 overall in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection lands below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point total itself is not negligible, but the position context matters: replacement-level quarterbacks are widely available, and Williams's projection does not clear that bar by this model's accounting. He is a QB13, not a fringe name, but the surplus over what a drafter could add later is negative at this price.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide. The 10th-percentile outcome is 93.5 points, a genuinely difficult fantasy season. The 25th percentile comes in at 171.8 points. The median simulated season lands at 230.3 points, slightly below the 241.5 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 297.2 points, and the 90th-percentile outcome is 352.2 points. That top-decile number represents a season where Williams would be a clear weekly starter with upside. The gap between the 10th and 90th percentile is nearly 259 points, which is an unusually wide spread. The floor is low enough to be a real concern; the ceiling is high enough to be genuinely interesting. This is a high-variance profile, not a steady-floor one.

How to draft him

Williams carries a market ADP of 83.6, which translates to pick 7.12 in a 12-team draft. That is a late-seventh-round pick. His model rank is QB13 and #124 overall. In a single-quarterback league, the standard strategic guidance is to wait on the position, and Williams's negative draft value reinforces that patience. If you do want him specifically, the market is currently taking him in the seventh round. His bye is Week 10, worth noting for roster planning. Given the wide outcome band, a drafter who targets him should have a plan for the floor scenario, because the 10th-percentile result at 93.5 points would require a replacement option regardless of when he was drafted.

The projection is 241.5 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -17.9, meaning the projection falls below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB13 and #124 overall in Tier 9.

The simulated season band runs from 93.5 points at the 10th percentile to 352.2 points at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 230.3 points. The floor is a genuine concern: one in four simulated seasons finishes at or below 171.8 points.

The market ADP is 83.6, which works out to pick 7.12 in a 12-team draft. That is where other drafters are currently spending a pick to get him.

In 2024 he had 9 fumbles and lost 5 of them. In 2025 he had 7 fumbles but lost only 1. The three-year average is 8 fumbles per season. The lost-fumble rate improved significantly in 2025, though the raw fumble count remained elevated.