#177 overall · CHI · 233.0 projected half-PPR pts · -34.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 99.0
Caleb Williams — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Caleb Williams took a clear step forward in 2025. He threw for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns on 568 attempts, added 383 rushing yards and 3 rushing scores, and cut his fumbles lost from 5 down to 1. The 3-year averages tell a consistent story: roughly 565 pass attempts, 3,741 passing yards, 23.5 passing touchdowns, and 436 rushing yards per season. He is a high-volume starter who contributes on the ground as well as through the air, and the 2025 season showed meaningful improvement in ball security. If you need a QB who logs starter-level volume week in and week out, Williams delivers that floor.
What the model projects
The projection for Williams is 233.0 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. That places him at QB15 and #177 overall, landing in Tier 9 on the board. His draft value sits at -34.4, meaning the projection comes in below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. His bye week is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 562 | 351 | 3541 | 20 | 6 | 81 | 489 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 254.5 |
| 2025 | 568 | 330 | 3942 | 27 | 7 | 77 | 383 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 322.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 565 | 340.5 | 3741.5 | 23.5 | 6.5 | 79 | 436 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0.5 | 8 | — | — | 294.4 |
The range of outcomes
Williams carries real variance. His 2024 season produced 3,541 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, and 489 rushing yards but also 9 fumbles and 5 lost. His 2025 season showed the upside: 3,942 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 3 rushing scores, and only 1 fumble lost. The gap between those two seasons illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. A version of Williams closer to his 2025 form pushes toward QB1 territory; a regression toward his 2024 turnover rate compresses his value considerably. Ball security and rushing touchdown rate are the two levers that move the needle most.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Williams going at pick 99 — round 9, pick 3 in a 12-team draft (median across 2 platforms). Our model ranks him #177 overall and QB15. If you are building a roster that deprioritizes quarterback early and want a high-volume starter as a late-round option, that is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. His Week 10 bye is worth noting when constructing your schedule around a potential playoff push.
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Questions drafters ask
Williams went from 3,541 passing yards and 20 touchdowns in 2024 to 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2025. He also added 3 rushing touchdowns and cut his fumbles lost from 5 to 1, a significant improvement in ball security.
The projection is 233.0 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him QB15 and #177 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -34.4, placing him below replacement level at quarterback on a 12-team half-PPR baseline.
Market ADP has him going at pick 99 — round 9, pick 3 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. That is the draft slot where you would need to spend a pick to land him.
Williams and the Bears are on bye in Week 10.