#36 overall · NYJ · 147.6 projected half-PPR pts · +30.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 32.6
Breece Hall — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Breece Hall has been a workhorse back for three consecutive seasons, averaging 225 rush attempts and 978.3 rushing yards per year over that span. He has cleared 200 carries and 870 rushing yards in each individual season — 223 attempts and 994 yards in 2023, 209 and 876 in 2024, and a three-year-best 243 attempts and 1,065 yards in 2025. The receiving work is real, too: 76 receptions on 95 targets in 2023 established him as a genuine pass-catcher, and while that volume dipped in subsequent seasons, he has averaged 56.3 receptions and 73 targets per year across the three-year window. The floor here is a high-volume, dual-threat back who has never missed the 200-carry threshold. That kind of workload consistency is the foundation of fantasy value at the position.
What the model projects
The model projects Hall at 147.6 half-PPR fantasy points this season, producing a Draft Value of +30.8 above replacement level at the running back position. That surplus places him #36 overall and RB15 in Tier 6 on the board. The projection reflects his three-year averages — roughly 225 carries, 978 rushing yards, 4.7 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, 475 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season — while accounting for the fumble concern that has been a consistent thread: 3.3 fumbles per year on average, with 2 lost in both 2024 and 2025. The +30.8 Draft Value confirms he projects meaningfully above what a replacement-level back would provide in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 223 | 994 | 5 | 95 | 76 | 591 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 250.5 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 876 | 5 | 76 | 57 | 483 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 208.4 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 243 | 1065 | 4 | 48 | 36 | 350 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 189.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | — | 225 | 978.3 | 4.7 | 73 | 56.3 | 474.7 | 2.7 | 3.3 | — | — | 219.1 |
The range of outcomes
Hall's season-to-season history already illustrates the variance baked into his profile. His rushing yards have ranged from 876 to 1,065 across the last three seasons, and his receiving role has fluctuated from 76 receptions down to 36. Fumbles are the clearest downside lever: he has totaled 10 fumbles over three seasons, losing 4 of them in the last two years alone. A season where fumble luck turns against him — or where lost fumbles climb — compresses his touch count and scoring opportunities. On the upside, his 2025 rushing total of 1,065 yards on 243 attempts shows what the ceiling looks like when the carries are there and the ball stays in his hands. The projection at 147.6 points sits between those poles, and the realistic range runs from a muted, fumble-interrupted campaign to a full-workload season that pushes well past that number.
How to draft him
Hall is #36 overall and RB15 on our board, sitting in Tier 6. The market is currently drafting him at pick 32.6 — that is round 3, pick 9 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. Plan accordingly: if you want Hall, you are spending a third-round pick to get him. His bye is Week 13, which falls late in the fantasy regular season, so factor that into your roster construction. Given his fumble history, it is worth carrying a handcuff or a high-floor flex option to hedge against the games where ball security costs him touches.
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Questions drafters ask
He leans workhorse by volume — he has averaged 225 rush attempts and 978.3 rushing yards per season over the last three years, never dipping below 209 carries. The boom-bust element comes from fumbles: he has averaged 3.3 per season over that span, losing 2 in each of the last two years. The floor is a high-touch back; the ceiling depends heavily on ball security.
It matters, but it has been inconsistent. He posted 76 receptions on 95 targets in 2023, then fell to 57 receptions on 76 targets in 2024, and further to 36 receptions on 48 targets in 2025. His three-year average of 56.3 receptions and 73 targets is still a meaningful receiving contribution, but drafters should not count on the 2023 volume repeating.
The market is currently taking him at pick 32.6 — round 3, pick 9 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is the window you are working with.
Fumbles. He has totaled 10 fumbles over the last three seasons, losing 4 of them in 2024 and 2025 combined. A season where fumble frequency climbs or lost fumbles mount can cost him carries and scoring opportunities, which directly compresses his fantasy output.