Breece Hall — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Breece Hall has been a volume-first back for three straight seasons. Over the 2023-2025 stretch he averaged 225 rush attempts and 73 targets per year, a workload that keeps him relevant in both the run and pass game. His 2025 season was his best rushing year of the three: 243 attempts, 1,065 yards on the ground, and a completion on a pass attempt that shows the offense is willing to get creative with him. The receiving side dipped to 36 receptions on 48 targets, but the rushing volume held firm. Three years of consistent opportunity is the foundation of his case. He sits at RB15 with a draft value of +52.2, meaning the projection puts him meaningfully above replacement level at the position. Tier 5 placement reflects where the model sees him relative to the full field, and #23 overall is the rank that comes out of that math.

What the model projects

The projection is 180.4 half-PPR points for the season. That sits below his median simulated outcome of 191.9, which is normal: the point estimate and the band median can diverge, and both numbers are worth knowing. His three-year averages give the projection a real foundation: 978.3 rushing yards, 474.7 receiving yards, 4.7 rushing touchdowns, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 rushing line (1,065 yards, 243 attempts) is the strongest single-season rushing output in his recent history, while the receiving numbers (350 yards, 36 receptions) were the lightest. The projection at 180.4 points reflects that full picture. His bye is Week 13.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 83.6 points: a genuinely difficult year. The 25th percentile lands at 135.1, still a below-projection result. The median simulated season is 191.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 240.3, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at 273.5 or better. That is a spread of roughly 190 points from the 10th to the 90th percentile, which signals real variance. The fumble history is part of that story: 2 fumbles in 2023, 6 in 2024 (2 lost), and 2 in 2025 (2 lost). The three-year average is 3.3 fumbles per season. In a good year the rushing volume and dual-threat role push him toward the top of that band; in a bad year the turnover risk and reduced receiving work pull him toward the bottom.

How to draft him

Hall is ranked #23 overall and RB15 in a 12-team half-PPR format. His market ADP is 32.6, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the typical draft has him going in the third round, ninth pick of the round. If you want him, that is the window to plan around. His +52.2 draft value confirms he projects above replacement level at the position. The fumble history is the one variable worth monitoring as draft day approaches: the 2024 season produced 6 fumbles, and that kind of turnover rate can affect role and opportunity in ways that compress the upside. Know the risk, plan your pick accordingly, and target him in that third-round range if he fits your roster construction.

The projection is 180.4 half-PPR points. He ranks #23 overall and RB15, with a draft value of +52.2 above replacement level, placing him in Tier 5.

His market ADP is 32.6, which translates to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him on your roster.

The outcome band runs from 83.6 points at the 10th percentile to 273.5 at the 90th percentile. The median simulated season is 191.9 points. That roughly 190-point spread from bottom to top reflects meaningful season-to-season variance.

It is worth factoring in. Hall fumbled 2 times in 2023, 6 times in 2024 (losing 2), and 2 times in 2025 (losing 2), for a three-year average of 3.3 fumbles per season. The 2024 spike in particular is the kind of data point that can affect opportunity and is part of what drives the wide outcome band.