#231 overall · BUF · 64.9 projected half-PPR pts · -57.6 Draft Value
Keon Coleman — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Keon Coleman has posted four receiving touchdowns in each of his first two NFL seasons, showing a consistent red-zone presence that keeps him relevant despite modest yardage totals. In 2025 he caught 38 passes on 59 targets for 404 yards, and in 2024 he hauled in 29 of 57 targets for 556 yards to go with those four scores. The touchdown floor is real, and it has shown up twice in a row. For a drafter hunting late-round upside in a Buffalo offense, that consistency at the goal line is the core argument.
What the model projects
The projection for Coleman in 2026 is 64.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -57.6, placing him #231 overall and WR74. He is a Tier 9 player on the board. Buffalo's bye is Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 95.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 38 | 404 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 81.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.5 | 4.5 | — | 58 | 33.5 | 480 | 4 | 0.5 | — | — | 89.2 |
The range of outcomes
Coleman's two-year track record tells a consistent story: targets in the high 50s, receptions in the high 20s to high 30s, yards in the 400–550 range, and four touchdowns each time. The three-year aggregate confirms the pattern — 58 targets, 33.5 receptions, 480 yards, and 4 touchdowns per season on average. The upside scenario leans on the touchdowns multiplying; the downside is a season where the end-zone looks dry up and the modest yardage volume leaves little else to lean on. A lost fumble in 2025 is a small but real risk factor in a tight target share.
How to draft him
Coleman is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, which means there is no established draft-slot price to plan around. At WR74 and #231 overall with a -57.6 draft value, he projects below replacement level at the position. He is a late-roster stash for drafters who want a touchdown-dependent flier in Buffalo — go in with eyes open that the projection reflects a player whose volume has not yet grown to match his scoring rate.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes — he has scored exactly four receiving touchdowns in both 2024 and 2025, and the three-year average also lands at 4 receiving touchdowns per season.
The projection is 64.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him #231 overall and WR74, with a draft value of -57.6, placing him in Tier 9.
Coleman does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. There is no established pick number to plan around.
In 2024 he saw 57 targets and posted 556 receiving yards. In 2025 he saw 59 targets and posted 404 receiving yards. The three-year average is 58 targets and 480 receiving yards per season.