#21 overall · BAL · 170.3 projected half-PPR pts · +47.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 38.3
Zay Flowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zay Flowers has done something quietly impressive over his first three NFL seasons: he has gotten better every year. He posted 858 receiving yards in 2023, 1,059 in 2024, and 1,211 in 2025 — a clean ascending line that reflects a receiver growing into a genuine featured role in Baltimore's offense. His target volume has been remarkably consistent, averaging 114 targets per season over that three-year stretch, and in 2025 he turned 118 targets into 86 receptions — his best catch rate of the three seasons. The underlying usage is real and durable. His 3-year averages of 1,042.7 receiving yards, 79 receptions, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season paint the picture of a high-floor WR who commands a steady share of the passing game. Add in a modest but consistent rushing role — roughly 9 carries and 58 rush yards per season — and Flowers brings a multi-dimensional touch profile that keeps his floor elevated in half-PPR formats.
What the model projects
The model projects Flowers at 170.3 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That projection produces a draft value of +47.7 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position, placing him #21 overall and WR11 in our rankings. He sits in Tier 5 on the board. The projection is grounded in three seasons of consistent target volume and a receiving-yards trajectory that has climbed each year. His bye week is 13.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 56 | 1 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 5 | — | 0 | 0 | 165.9 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 56 | 0 | 116 | 74 | 1059 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 172.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 118 | 86 | 1211 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 200.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 9 | 58 | 0.7 | 114 | 79 | 1042.7 | 4.7 | 1 | — | — | 182.0 |
The range of outcomes
Flowers carries meaningful upside alongside a well-established floor. The fumble concern is real — he lost all 3 of his fumbles in 2025 — and touchdown variance is the other lever that can swing his season in either direction. His receiving touchdown totals have been 5, 4, and 5 over the past three years, a narrow band that suggests modest but reliable scoring. The ceiling scenario is a continuation of his yards-per-season growth curve pushing past 1,200 yards with a touchdown uptick. The floor scenario involves a regression in target share or a repeat of the fumble issues that cost him possessions in 2025. His three-year average of 4.7 receiving touchdowns is a reasonable central expectation, but a season at 7 or 8 touchdowns is plausible given the volume he sees. The 170.3 projection reflects that balanced picture.
How to draft him
Flowers is ranked #21 overall and WR11 in our model. Market ADP across two platforms places him at pick 38.3 — round 4, pick 2 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the window you are working with: if you want Flowers, you need to be prepared to spend a fourth-round pick to secure him. His Tier 5 standing and +47.7 draft value above replacement confirm he projects as a meaningful contributor well above the replacement line at wide receiver. Plan your first three rounds accordingly, and know that the fourth round is where this decision gets made.
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Questions drafters ask
The model ranks him WR11 with a projection of 170.3 half-PPR points and a draft value of +47.7 above replacement — that profile is consistent with WR2 production. His three-year averages of 114 targets, 79 receptions, and 1,042.7 receiving yards support the floor, and his 2025 season (118 targets, 86 receptions, 1,211 yards) shows the ceiling is higher than the average.
Market ADP has him at 38.3, which works out to round 4, pick 2 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the price the market is currently charging — plan to spend a fourth-round selection if you want him on your roster.
Very consistent. He has seen 108, 116, and 118 targets in his three NFL seasons, for a three-year average of 114 per year. That kind of target stability is one of the strongest indicators of a reliable fantasy floor.
It is a legitimate concern. Flowers lost all 3 of his fumbles in 2025 — his first fumble issues across the three seasons on record (his 3-year average is 1 fumble per season). Whether that represents a new habit or a one-year anomaly is a real question, and it is one of the factors that widens his range of outcomes heading into 2026.