#31 overall · BAL · 169.6 projected half-PPR pts · +40.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 33.4
Zay Flowers — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Zay Flowers has done something rare for a young receiver: he has grown his production in each of his first three NFL seasons. He caught 77 passes for 858 yards in 2023, then 74 catches for 1,059 yards in 2024, then a career-best 86 catches for 1,211 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns in 2025. Targets have followed the same arc: 108, 116, 118. That is a receiver who has held a high-volume role and expanded it. Over the three-year window he averages 114 targets, 79 receptions, and 1,042.7 receiving yards per season. The target floor is real, the yardage trend is real, and the role is established. At WR12 with a draftValue of +40.9, he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 169.6 half-PPR points. That sits above the median simulated season of 180.2, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution rather than any contradiction. He is ranked #31 overall and WR12, placed in Tier 6. The draftValue of +40.9 confirms he projects above the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR format. One note worth carrying into your draft prep: Flowers lost all three fumbles in 2025, a fumbles-lost total that stands out against a three-year average of 1.0 fumble per season. That is a real part of his recent profile.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 8 | 56 | 1 | — | 165.9 |
| 2024 | 116 | 74 | 1059 | 4 | 9 | 56 | — | — | 172.5 |
| 2025 | 118 | 86 | 1211 | 5 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 3 | 200.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 114 | 79 | 1042.7 | 4.7 | 9 | 58 | 0.7 | 1 | 182.0 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the 10th-percentile outcome is 92.2 points: a season where almost nothing goes right. The 25th percentile lands at 135.0, still a meaningful step below the median. The median simulated season is 180.2 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile is 214.0 points and the 90th percentile reaches 246.4. That top-decile outcome is nearly 2.7 times the bottom-decile figure, which tells you this is a player with genuine ceiling but a floor that can hurt a roster. The three-year receiving touchdown average of 4.7 per season suggests the scoring upside is real but not a lock in any given year.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Flowers carries a market ADP of 33.4, which works out to pick 3.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That means the draft community is spending a third-round pick to land him. Our rankings place him at #31 overall and WR12. Plan your draft accordingly: if you want Flowers, the third round is when you need to be ready to act. His bye is Week 13, late enough that it rarely disrupts playoff pushes, but worth noting when you build your roster depth.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
His targets have climbed every year: 108 in 2023, 116 in 2024, and 118 in 2025, for a three-year average of 114 per season. That is a consistently high-volume role that has only grown.
The simulated outcome band runs from 92.2 points at the 10th percentile to 246.4 at the 90th percentile, with a median of 180.2. The gap between those extremes is large, so he carries meaningful variance in both directions.
His market ADP is 33.4, which translates to pick 3.09 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, you should be prepared to use a third-round selection.
Flowers lost all 3 fumbles in 2025. His three-year average is 1.0 fumble per season, so 2025 was a notable spike. It is a real part of his recent profile and worth factoring into your roster decisions.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →