Nico Collins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Nico Collins has posted back-to-back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, hitting 1,297 yards in 2023, 1,006 in 2024, and 1,117 in 2025. Over that three-year stretch he has averaged 109.3 targets, 73 receptions, 1,140 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a remarkably consistent target share and production floor for a wide receiver. The 2025 season added a rushing touchdown and 15 rush yards on two attempts, a small but real contribution on the ground. Collins sits at WR11 with a draft value of +43.8, meaning he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the position. The case is simple: three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, a steady target volume north of 100 per year, and a touchdown rate that has held at 6-8 scores annually.

What the model projects

The projection for Collins is 172.5 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That point estimate sits below his three-year average production, reflecting a stat line that has fluctuated year to year. His median simulated season lands at 183.1 points, slightly above the point estimate, which is worth noting when thinking about the full distribution. Collins is ranked #29 overall and WR11, placed in Tier 6 of the rankings.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band for Collins is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 95.1 points, a significant step down from his historical floor. The 25th percentile sits at 137.9 points, still a meaningful drop from his typical output. The median simulated season is 183.1 points. Moving upward, the 75th percentile reaches 216.9 points and the 90th percentile tops out at 249.3 points. That upper band represents a genuine WR1 season. The spread from p10 to p90 runs 154.2 points, which signals real variance around the projection. A drafter buying Collins is accepting that the floor is soft while the ceiling is legitimately high.

How to draft him

Collins carries a market ADP of 22.5, which translates to pick 2.11 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model ranks him #29 overall and WR11. In practical terms, you will need to spend a second-round pick to secure him. His bye is Week 8, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that week.

His three-year history points to consistency: 1,000-plus receiving yards in each of the last three seasons and an average of 109.3 targets per year. The projection is 172.5 half-PPR points and he ranks WR11. That said, the outcome band runs from 95.1 points at the 10th percentile to 249.3 at the 90th, so meaningful downside exists alongside a high ceiling.

Over the 2023-2025 stretch Collins averaged 109.3 targets per season, with individual season totals of 109, 99, and 120. That is a durable volume that has stayed above 99 in every year of the sample.

His market ADP is 22.5, which works out to pick 2.11 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use a second-round selection if you want him on your roster.

He has scored 6, 7, and 8 receiving touchdowns in 2025, 2024, and 2023 respectively, for a three-year average of 7 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 season also included one rushing touchdown.