#22 overall · HOU · 170.1 projected half-PPR pts · +47.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 23.9
Nico Collins — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Nico Collins has posted 1,000-plus receiving yards in each of the past three seasons — 1,297 in 2023, 1,006 in 2024, and 1,117 in 2025. Over that same stretch he has averaged 109.3 targets, 73 receptions, and 7 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a consistent, high-volume WR1 profile. He sits in Tier 5 on the board, ranks WR12 at his position, and lands at #22 overall — a player whose production has been remarkably stable across three full years of work in Houston.
What the model projects
The model projects Collins at 170.1 half-PPR fantasy points this season, generating a draft value of +47.6 above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus is what earns him the #22 overall ranking. His three-year averages — 109.3 targets, 73 catches, 1,140 receiving yards, 7 receiving touchdowns — form the backbone of that projection, and the numbers suggest the floor is real. His bye week is Week 8.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 109 | 80 | 1297 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 218.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 68 | 1006 | 7 | — | 0 | 0 | 176.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 120 | 71 | 1117 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 188.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 109.3 | 73 | 1140 | 7 | 0.7 | — | — | 195.0 |
The range of outcomes
Collins's three-year track record narrows the outcome band considerably, but variance still exists. His touchdown total has ranged from 6 to 8 receiving scores across the past three seasons, and that swing alone can move his fantasy finish meaningfully. Target volume has been steady — 99 to 120 over the same window — so the bigger question is efficiency and red-zone opportunity in any given year. A season closer to his 2023 ceiling (1,297 yards, 8 TDs) pushes him well above projection; a repeat of his 2024 floor (1,006 yards, 7 TDs) still keeps him productive but closer to the low end of his range.
How to draft him
Collins's market ADP is 23.9, which works out to pick 2.12 in a 12-team snake draft — essentially the last pick of the second round. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. At #22 overall on our board, he sits squarely in the range where second-round capital is the going rate. Plan accordingly: if Collins is a target, have him on your board as a Round 2 priority and be ready to pull the trigger at the turn.
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Questions drafters ask
Yes. He has cleared 1,000 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons (1,297 in 2023, 1,006 in 2024, 1,117 in 2025) and averaged 7 receiving touchdowns per year over that span. That is about as consistent a three-year floor as you will find at the position.
His market ADP of 23.9 translates to pick 2.12 in a 12-team draft — the last pick of the second round. That is the going rate if you want him on your roster.
The model projects Collins at 170.1 half-PPR fantasy points, good for a draft value of +47.6 above replacement level, ranking him #22 overall and WR12 at his position.
His worst recent season was 2024: 68 receptions, 1,006 yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns on 99 targets. Even in that down year he remained a productive fantasy contributor, which speaks to how tight his floor is given three straight 1,000-yard campaigns.