#222 overall · ARI · 74.1 projected half-PPR pts · -53.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 144.0
Tyler Allgeier — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Tyler Allgeier has logged three consecutive seasons with at least 137 rush attempts, demonstrating consistent volume as a ball-carrier. His 2025 season stood out for one reason above all others: eight rushing touchdowns on 143 carries and 514 rushing yards. That touchdown rate is the clearest argument in his favor. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 155.3 rush attempts, 613.7 rushing yards, and five rushing touchdowns per season. The receiving work is modest but real, averaging 15 receptions, 17.3 targets, and 125.7 receiving yards per season across that same span. For a drafter hunting late-round depth at running back, the touchdown upside is the hook.
What the model projects
The projection is 74.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Allgeier at RB49 and #222 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -53.1, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 74.1 points reflects a back with a modest but established workload profile and a touchdown-dependent scoring floor.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 186 | 683 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 193 | 1 | 126.6 |
| 2024 | 137 | 644 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 88 | — | 97.7 |
| 2025 | 143 | 514 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 96 | — | 116.0 |
| 3-yr avg | 155.3 | 613.7 | 5 | 17.3 | 15 | 125.7 | 0.3 | 113.2 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Allgeier's outlook. The p10 outcome is 10.1 points, a near-total absence of fantasy contribution. The p25 sits at 31.4 points. The median simulated season lands at 68.1 points, close to but slightly below the 74.1 point projection. From there the upside opens up: the p75 outcome is 110.3 points and the p90 outcome reaches 156.1 points. That top-decile scenario, driven by a repeat of his 2025 touchdown volume or better, is the reason a drafter might stash him late. The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes, 10.1 to 156.1, signals that this is a high-variance roster spot, not a reliable weekly contributor.
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our projection
How to draft him
The market is drafting Allgeier at pick 144.0 on average, which works out to round 12, pick 12 in a 12-team snake draft, based on two platform sources. He ranks #222 overall by draft value. At that draft slot, he is a late-round flier whose value is almost entirely tied to touchdown recurrence. His bye falls in Week 14, which is a consideration if your league's playoffs begin that week. Target him only after your roster's core is set, and treat him as a touchdown-dependent stash rather than a weekly plug-in.
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Questions drafters ask
He scored four rushing touchdowns in 2023, three in 2024, and eight in 2025. The three-year average is five rushing touchdowns per season, with the 2025 figure representing a clear spike in that category.
The simulated season band runs from 10.1 points at the p10 to 156.1 points at the p90. The median simulated season is 68.1 points. That is a very wide band, indicating high season-to-season variance in outcomes.
He is RB49 and #222 overall, in Tier 9. His draft value is -53.1, which means the projection falls below replacement level at running back in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market average is pick 144, or round 12, pick 12 in a 12-team draft, based on two platform sources. He is a late-round target, available well after the core of most rosters is built.
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Beyond the numbers
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