Buffalo Bills — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Buffalo has been one of the more active defenses in the league over the past three seasons. The three-year averages tell the story: 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, and 11.7 recovered per season. The 2023 peak was genuinely impressive, with 53 sacks, 18 interceptions, and 14 forced fumbles in a single year. That kind of turnover and pressure production is the foundation of a fantasy-relevant DST. The unit also sits at DST5, meaning it ranks among the top five at its position by draft value. For a drafter who wants a defense with a real track record of generating big plays, Buffalo has the receipts.

What the model projects

The projection is 137.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the season. The draft value comes in at -8.2, which places Buffalo below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The overall rank is #94 overall, and the position rank is DST5. Buffalo sits in Tier 9. The three-year aggregate context is worth noting: points allowed have climbed from 311 in 2023 to 368 in 2024 and 365 in 2025, while sacks have dropped from 53 to 37 to 36 over the same span. Interceptions have also trended down, from 18 to 16 to 13. The projection reflects that recent trajectory.

The range of outcomes

The historical record shows meaningful season-to-season variance. In 2023, Buffalo allowed just 311 points and posted 53 sacks with 18 interceptions. By 2025, points allowed had risen to 365, sacks had fallen to 36, and interceptions to 13. Fumble recoveries dropped sharply as well, from 12 in 2023 to 7 in 2025. On the scoring side, the unit posted 3 defensive touchdowns in 2023 but only 2 in each of the two seasons since. The game-by-game points-allowed distribution also shifted: in 2023, Buffalo held opponents to 6 or fewer points twice; in 2025, they allowed 28 or more in four games. A rebound toward 2023-level production is possible, but the recent trend runs in the other direction. Buffalo's bye falls in Week 7, which is worth factoring into any streaming or roster decisions.

How to draft him

Buffalo does not have a market ADP available, meaning the unit is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median. That makes it a candidate for late-round streaming rather than a committed early pick. The position rank of DST5 in a 12-team format is respectable, but the draft value of -8.2 signals that the projection sits below replacement level, so the calculus favors waiting. If you want the upside tied to Buffalo's turnover history, the lack of a firm ADP suggests you can likely wait until the final rounds and still find the unit available. Plan around the Week 7 bye.

The draft value is -8.2, placing Buffalo below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format despite a DST5 position rank. There is no market ADP available, which suggests the unit is not being consistently drafted across platforms. That combination points toward a streaming approach rather than spending a meaningful pick.

Over the past three seasons, Buffalo averaged 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, and 15 forced fumbles per year. The 2023 season was the high-water mark at 53 sacks and 18 interceptions. Both figures have declined in each subsequent season, landing at 36 sacks and 13 interceptions in 2025.

Points allowed rose from 311 in 2023 to 368 in 2024 and 365 in 2025, a three-year average of 348. The game-by-game distribution also shifted: in 2023, Buffalo held opponents to 6 or fewer points twice; in 2025, they allowed 28 or more points in four games.

Buffalo's bye is Week 7. If you draft them as your primary DST, you will need a streaming option for that week. Given the lack of a market ADP and the below-replacement-level draft value, building in flexibility from the start is the practical approach.