Buffalo Bills — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Buffalo has been one of the more active defenses in football over the past three seasons. The Bills forced 15 fumbles per year on average from 2023 through 2025, recovered 11.7 per year, and averaged 15.7 interceptions annually over that same stretch. The 2023 season stands as the high-water mark — 53 sacks, 18 interceptions, 14 forced fumbles — and even as those numbers have softened, the unit has remained a consistent turnover generator. A 36-sack, 13-interception season in 2025 is still a productive floor for a DST. At DST3, this is a unit with a real track record of fantasy-relevant production.

What the model projects

The projection comes in at 123.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at #93 overall and DST3 by draft value. The draft value of -5.9 places the Bills just below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR baseline — a narrow gap. The three-year averages tell the story behind that number: 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, 15 forced fumbles, and 2.3 defensive touchdowns per season. Points allowed have averaged 348 per year over that window. Tier 9 on the board reflects where the unit lands once value over replacement is priced in across all positions.

The range of outcomes

DST scoring is inherently volatile — a single pick-six or fumble return can swing a week dramatically, and season-long totals are sensitive to opponent schedule and turnover luck. Buffalo's own history illustrates this: sacks ranged from 36 to 53 across three seasons, and interceptions ranged from 13 to 18. Fumble recoveries swung from 7 in 2025 to 16 in 2024. The upside case leans on a return toward the 2023 production profile. The downside case is a repeat of the 2025 floor — still functional, but thin on the big-play totals that separate elite DST weeks. The bye falls in Week 7, which is worth noting for roster planning.

How to draft him

Buffalo is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no public draft-slot data to reference. At DST3 and #93 overall, this is a late-round DST target in a standard 12-team snake draft. The negative draft value is narrow, and the position rank is strong enough that if you want this unit, you should not assume it will be available on the wire — plan a pick accordingly. The Week 7 bye is early enough that you will want a handcuff DST ready before the season starts.

At DST3 and #93 overall with no public ADP, Buffalo is not being consistently drafted across platforms — but the position rank suggests it carries real value. Whether you pick them or stream is a roster construction call, but the DST3 ranking means this unit projects better than most available alternatives at the position.

Over the three seasons from 2023 through 2025, the Bills averaged 42 sacks, 15.7 interceptions, and 15 forced fumbles per year. The 2023 peak was 53 sacks and 18 interceptions; 2025 came in at 36 sacks and 13 interceptions.

The Bills are on bye in Week 7. That's early in the season, so you'll want a backup DST on your roster before the year begins rather than scrambling on the waiver wire mid-season.

Draft value measures projected fantasy points above replacement level at the position. Buffalo's draft value of -5.9 means the projection of 123.1 half-PPR points sits just below the replacement-level baseline for DST in a 12-team half-PPR league — a narrow gap that the DST3 position rank still makes worth monitoring.