#29 overall · PHI · 154.2 projected half-PPR pts · +37.3 Draft Value · Market ADP 15.6
Saquon Barkley — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Saquon Barkley has been one of the most consistent volume carriers in the league over the last three seasons. He logged 247, 345, and 280 rush attempts from 2023 through 2025, averaging 290.7 carries per year. His 2024 season stands out: 2,005 rush yards and 13 rushing touchdowns on 345 attempts. Even in his quieter 2023 and 2025 campaigns, he posted 962 and 1,140 rush yards respectively, with 6 and 7 rushing touchdowns. He also contributes as a receiver — 41, 33, and 37 receptions across those three seasons, averaging 277 receiving yards per year. The floor is real. The workload has been real. His draftValue sits at +37.3, meaning he projects meaningfully above replacement level at the running back position.
What the model projects
The model projects Barkley at 154.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That output ranks him #29 overall and RB13 at his position, placing him in Tier 6 on the board. His three-year averages — 290.7 rush attempts, 1,369 rush yards, 8.7 rushing touchdowns, 51 targets, 37 receptions, 277 receiving yards, and 2.7 receiving touchdowns — form the backbone of that projection. The +37.3 draftValue confirms he projects above the replacement-level baseline for running backs in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 247 | 962 | 6 | 60 | 41 | 280 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 200.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 345 | 2005 | 13 | 43 | 33 | 278 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 332.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 280 | 1140 | 7 | 50 | 37 | 273 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 211.8 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 290.7 | 1369 | 8.7 | 51 | 37 | 277 | 2.7 | 1.7 | — | — | 251.5 |
The range of outcomes
Barkley's season-to-season history illustrates the variance baked into his profile. His rushing yardage swung from 962 in 2023 to 2,005 in 2024 before settling at 1,140 in 2025. Touchdown production followed a similar arc: 6 rushing scores in 2023, 13 in 2024, 7 in 2025. Receiving involvement has also fluctuated — 60 targets and 41 receptions in 2023, down to 43 targets and 33 receptions in 2024, back to 50 targets and 37 receptions in 2025. The upside case looks like the 2024 version: elite carry volume, big yardage, and double-digit rushing touchdowns. The downside case looks more like 2023: still a workhorse, but with modest yardage and a touchdown rate that doesn't fully reward the volume. Fumble risk is modest — he's lost two fumbles in 2023, one in 2024, and one in 2025. His bye falls in Week 10.
How to draft him
Barkley's market ADP is 15.6, which translates to pick 2.04 in a 12-team snake draft — early in the second round. Our model ranks him #29 overall and RB13. Plan accordingly: if you want him, the second round is when you'll need to spend the pick. His Tier 6 placement on the board reflects where the model sees his value relative to the full field.
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Questions drafters ask
He carried the ball 247 times in 2023, 345 in 2024, and 280 in 2025 — a three-year average of 290.7 rush attempts per season.
He has averaged 51 targets, 37 receptions, and 277 receiving yards per season over the last three years. His reception totals were 41 in 2023, 33 in 2024, and 37 in 2025.
His market ADP of 15.6 puts him at pick 2.04 in a 12-team draft, so you should expect to spend a second-round pick to land him.
The model projects him at 154.2 half-PPR points, ranking him #29 overall and RB13 with a draftValue of +37.3 — meaning he projects 37.3 points above the replacement-level baseline for running backs.