#27 overall · KC · 160.4 projected half-PPR pts · +37.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 30.1
Rashee Rice — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rashee Rice's 2023 season is the foundation of the argument: 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns as a rookie in Kansas City. That is a legitimate WR1 workload in one of the NFL's most efficient passing offenses. The two seasons since have been shortened by availability, but the underlying profile — volume, efficiency, and touchdown upside in a proven system — has not changed. His three-year averages across 2023–2025 show 69.7 targets, 52 receptions, 599 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns per season, numbers that are suppressed by the games he missed. When he has been on the field, the target share has been real. He sits in Tier 6 on the board at WR14, with a draft value of +37.9 — projecting meaningfully above replacement level at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 160.4 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That places Rice #27 overall and WR14 by draft value. His +37.9 draft value confirms he projects above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The three-year per-season averages — 69.7 targets, 52 receptions, 599 yards, 4.7 receiving touchdowns — provide the historical context around that projection. Note his bye week falls in Week 5.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 102 | 79 | 938 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 173.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 24 | 288 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 52.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 78 | 53 | 571 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 121.6 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 2.3 | 6 | 0.3 | 69.7 | 52 | 599 | 4.7 | 1.3 | — | — | 116.5 |
The range of outcomes
Rice's outcome distribution is wide, and the history explains why. In 2023 he posted 938 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on 102 targets. In 2024 he managed only 29 targets, 24 receptions, 288 yards, and 2 touchdowns. In 2025 he returned to 78 targets, 53 receptions, 571 yards, and 5 receiving touchdowns — a partial recovery, but still short of his 2023 peak. He also carries a fumble concern: 2 fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, with 1 lost in 2023. The upside scenario looks like 2023 — a high-volume, high-efficiency season that makes WR14 look conservative. The downside scenario is another interrupted year where the target tree never fully opens. Availability is the single variable that drives the widest spread in his simulated outcomes.
How to draft him
Rice is going at an average draft position of 30.1 across public 2026 drafts — that translates to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft. Our model has him at #27 overall and WR14. Plan to spend a third-round pick if you want him; that is the market's current price. Given his bye in Week 5, account for roster depth at wide receiver when building out your bench. The risk-reward conversation starts and ends with availability: if he plays a full season, the 160.4 projection and +37.9 draft value suggest a meaningful return on that third-round investment.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023, Rice posted 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns — a genuine WR1 workload in Kansas City's offense.
His market ADP is 30.1, which works out to pick 3.06 in a 12-team snake draft. Budget a third-round selection if you want him.
The projection is 160.4 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking him #27 overall and WR14 with a draft value of +37.9 above replacement level.
Availability. His 2024 season produced only 29 targets and 288 receiving yards, and his 2025 season (78 targets, 571 yards) was still well below his 2023 peak. He also has 2 fumbles in each of his two full-ish seasons. The gap between his floor and ceiling is driven almost entirely by how many games he plays.