#28 overall · KC · 176.7 projected half-PPR pts · +48.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 22.1
Rashee Rice — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rashee Rice's 2023 season is the anchor: 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns in a full year as KC's primary receiver. The three-year averages tell a more complicated story, with abbreviated 2024 and 2025 campaigns pulling the per-season numbers down to 69.7 targets, 52 receptions, 599 receiving yards, and 4.7 receiving touchdowns. But the 2025 line shows a bounce: 78 targets, 53 receptions, 571 yards, 5 receiving touchdowns, and a rushing contribution of 5 attempts, 20 yards, and a rushing touchdown. The underlying role in Kansas City's offense is real, and the 2023 ceiling is on the table.
What the model projects
The projection is 176.7 half-PPR fantasy points. Rice ranks #28 overall and WR10, sitting in Tier 5. His draft value is +48.0 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position, meaning the projection puts him meaningfully ahead of what a replacement-level WR would return in a 12-team half-PPR league. The median simulated season lands at 187.3 points, slightly above the point estimate, which reflects the shape of the outcome distribution.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 102 | 79 | 938 | 7 | 1 | -3 | — | 2 | 173.0 |
| 2024 | 29 | 24 | 288 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 52.9 |
| 2025 | 78 | 53 | 571 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 121.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 69.7 | 52 | 599 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 6 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 116.5 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 99.2 points, a figure that reflects how thin the floor can get when a season is compressed. The 25th percentile is 142.0 points and the 75th is 221.2, putting the middle half of outcomes in an 80-point range. The upside is real: 10% of simulated seasons reach 253.5 points or better. That p90 number is consistent with a full-season performance closer to his 2023 output. The fumble history is worth noting: two fumbles in both 2023 and 2025, with one lost in 2023, averaging 1.3 per season over three years. That is a small but persistent drag on floor outcomes.
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our projection
How to draft him
Rice is ranked #28 overall and WR10. The market is currently drafting him at pick 22.1, which works out to the 2nd round, 10th pick in a 12-team snake draft. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye is Week 5, so plan your roster depth accordingly for that early absence.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2023 he posted 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 receiving yards, and 7 receiving touchdowns in a full season. The p90 outcome in the projection band is 253.5 half-PPR points, consistent with a season in that range.
The band runs from 99.2 points at the 10th percentile to 253.5 at the 90th. The floor risk is real: Rice has averaged 1.3 fumbles per season over the past three years, with two fumbles in both 2023 and 2025.
He is #28 overall and WR10, placed in Tier 5, with a draft value of +48.0 points above replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format.
The market is currently taking him at pick 22.1, which is the 2nd round, 10th pick in a 12-team draft. That is the price of admission based on where he is going across draft platforms.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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