#30 overall · NYJ · 159.4 projected half-PPR pts · +36.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 35.2
Garrett Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Garrett Wilson has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard receiving seasons, hitting 1,042 yards on 95 catches in 2023 and 1,104 yards on 101 catches in 2024. The target volume is real: 168 targets in 2023, 153 in 2024. His 2024 touchdown total jumped to 7 receiving scores after just 3 in 2023, showing the scoring upside is there when the offense clicks. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averages 126.7 targets and 77.3 receptions per season. That kind of consistent target share is the foundation of a reliable WR2 floor, and the 2024 season demonstrated what the ceiling looks like when the touchdowns arrive.
What the model projects
The model projects Wilson at 159.4 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That output produces a draft value of +36.8 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position — a meaningful surplus. He ranks #30 overall and WR16, and sits in Tier 6 on the board. The projection reflects his established target volume and the scoring upside he demonstrated in 2024, balanced against the variability in his year-to-year touchdown and yardage totals.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 153 | 101 | 1104 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 199.4 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 36 | 395 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 81.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1.7 | — | 126.7 | 77.3 | 847 | 4.7 | 1.7 | — | — | 151.7 |
The range of outcomes
Wilson's three-season history illustrates genuine variance. In 2023 he caught 95 balls for 1,042 yards but scored only 3 touchdowns. In 2024 he caught 101 balls for 1,104 yards and scored 7. In 2025 his totals were 36 receptions, 395 yards, and 4 touchdowns across 59 targets. The three-year averages — 126.7 targets, 77.3 receptions, 847 yards, 4.7 receiving touchdowns — capture the spread. The floor is a high-volume receiver who can underperform on scoring; the ceiling is the 2024 version, where the touchdowns elevated him into clear WR2 territory. Touchdown variance is the primary lever on his season outcome.
How to draft him
Wilson's market ADP is 35.2, which works out to pick 3.11 in a 12-team snake draft — that is when you would need to spend a pick to land him. He is #30 overall and WR16 by our projections. His bye week is 13, one of the later ones on the calendar, so plan your roster depth accordingly. If you are building around a high-target receiver with proven 1,000-yard seasons and demonstrated touchdown upside, Wilson is the kind of player who fits that role in the third round.
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Questions drafters ask
He has the floor of a high-volume receiver — 153 and 168 targets in his two most recent full seasons — but his touchdown production has swung from 3 to 7 in back-to-back years. That touchdown variance is the main driver of his boom-or-bust range. The target volume provides a floor; the scoring is what separates a good Wilson season from a great one.
The projection is 159.4 half-PPR fantasy points, which generates a draft value of +36.8 above replacement level. He ranks #30 overall and WR16.
His market ADP is 35.2 — pick 3.11 in a 12-team draft. That is the third round, late in the turn, which is when you would need to commit a pick to secure him.
Week 13. That is one of the later byes on the schedule, so factor that into your roster construction when building depth at wide receiver.