#42 overall · NYJ · 156.6 projected half-PPR pts · +27.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 37.3
Garrett Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Garrett Wilson has back-to-back seasons of 1,000-plus receiving yards on his resume. In 2023 he caught 95 of 168 targets for 1,042 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2024 he caught 101 of 153 targets for 1,104 yards and 7 touchdowns. The target volume is real, the reception totals are real, and the 2024 touchdown step-up was real. His three-year average sits at 126.7 targets and 77.3 receptions per season. That is a high-volume receiver with a demonstrated floor. The 2025 line — 36 receptions, 395 yards, 4 touchdowns on 59 targets — is a reduced stat line, but the touchdown rate held. Wilson lands at WR16 and #42 overall with a draft value of +27.6, meaning the projection puts him above replacement level at the position. Tier 7 is where the rankings place him.
What the model projects
The projection is 156.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His three-year per-season averages — 847 receiving yards, 77.3 receptions, 4.7 receiving touchdowns, 126.7 targets — form the statistical backdrop. The point estimate of 156.6 sits below the median simulated season of 167.2, which means the distribution has a longer downside tail than upside tail. His draft value of +27.6 points above replacement confirms a positive surplus at the position. He carries a Week 13 bye.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 168 | 95 | 1042 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 165.7 |
| 2024 | 153 | 101 | 1104 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 199.4 |
| 2025 | 59 | 36 | 395 | 4 | — | — | 1 | 81.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 126.7 | 77.3 | 847 | 4.7 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 151.7 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. At the pessimistic end, the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons land at or below 79.1 points — a number consistent with a heavily reduced role. The 25th percentile is 121.9 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. The median simulated season is 167.2 points. The 75th percentile reaches 201.1 points, and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 233.4 points. That is a spread of more than 154 points from p10 to p90, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance. The 2025 stat line (395 yards, 59 targets) anchors the downside scenario; the 2024 line (1,104 yards, 153 targets, 7 touchdowns) anchors the upside. Both are real data points, and both live inside this band.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Wilson is #42 overall and WR16 in the rankings. The market is drafting him at an average pick of 37.3, which works out to pick 4.01 in a 12-team snake draft — the first pick of the fourth round. That is where you will need to spend a pick to secure him. His bye falls in Week 13, which is a common fantasy playoff week; factor that into your roster construction. The wide outcome band means the drafter who takes him is accepting real variance in exchange for a receiver with a documented target-volume history.
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Questions drafters ask
His three-year average is 126.7 targets per season. He saw 168 targets in 2023, 153 in 2024, and 59 in 2025, for a per-season average that reflects both the high-volume years and the reduced 2025 campaign.
The market ADP is 37.3, which translates to pick 4.01 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use your first pick of the fourth round if you want him.
The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or below 79.1 half-PPR points. The 25th percentile is 121.9 points. Those are the numbers that define the pessimistic range of outcomes.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at or above 233.4 half-PPR points. The 75th percentile is 201.1 points. His 2024 season — 1,104 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns on 101 receptions — is the real-world reference point for what that range looks like.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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