Sam Darnold — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Darnold's 2024 season is the anchor of any argument in his favor. He threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns on 545 attempts, adding 212 rushing yards and a rushing score. That is a legitimate QB1 stat line, and it happened. His 2025 numbers stayed respectable in volume: 4,048 passing yards, 323 completions on 477 attempts. The three-year per-season averages across 2023-2025 sit at 2,888 passing yards, 20.7 passing touchdowns, and 107.3 rushing yards, which reflects the drag of a limited 2023 sample. Strip that out and the two-year picture is a high-volume passer with a real rushing floor. Now in Seattle, he lands in a new situation with a bye in Week 11. Drafters who wait at quarterback and land a player with a 4,000-yard ceiling at this stage of a draft are getting functional production at a position where most rosters are already set.

What the model projects

The projection is 213.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Darnold at QB21 and #199 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -46.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 192.8 points, slightly below the point estimate of 213.5. Both numbers are in the same neighborhood, but they are not identical, and both are worth knowing.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 72.2 points, a number that reflects genuine bust risk. The 25th percentile lands at 133.6 points, still a difficult fantasy season. The median sits at 192.8. Move up to the 75th percentile and the number jumps to 268.5, and the top 10% of simulated seasons reach 333.4 points. That gap between p10 and p90 spans more than 260 points, which is a significant spread. The 2025 season offers a concrete data point on the downside: 14 interceptions and 10 fumbles, with 6 lost. Turnover volume is a real part of his profile. The 2024 season offers the upside case: 35 touchdown passes and a completion rate that held up over 545 attempts. Both seasons are real, and the band reflects that both outcomes remain live.

How to draft him

The market is drafting Darnold at pick 159.5 on average, which works out to the 14th round, 4th pick in a 12-team draft (14.04). That is late-draft territory. The model ranks him #199 overall and QB21. At that draft slot, the cost is low and the roster commitment is minimal. In most 12-team leagues, a drafter reaching this round has already filled their starting lineup and is working through depth and upside picks. Darnold fits that context: a late-round quarterback with a documented high-end season on his resume and a wide enough outcome band to occasionally return starter-worthy numbers. Treat him as a late-round dart at the position, not a cornerstone of the roster build.

He completed 361 of 545 pass attempts for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions. He also carried 67 times for 212 yards and a rushing score. It was a high-volume, high-touchdown season.

It is real and documented. In 2025 he threw 14 interceptions and fumbled 10 times, losing 6. In 2024 he had 12 interceptions, 8 fumbles, and 4 lost. The three-year average is 9 interceptions and 7 fumbles per season. Turnover volume is a consistent part of his profile.

The projection is 213.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That ranks him QB21 and #199 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -46.0, which is below replacement level at quarterback in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The market is taking him at an average of pick 159.5, which is round 14, pick 4 in a 12-team draft. That is late enough that he is a depth or upside pick rather than a planned starter acquisition.