#232 overall · SEA · 209.5 projected half-PPR pts · -57.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 158.8
Sam Darnold — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Sam Darnold arrives in Seattle with back-to-back seasons of legitimate volume. In 2024 he completed 361 of 545 attempts for 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdown passes. In 2025 he followed with 323 completions on 477 attempts, 4,048 yards, and 25 touchdown passes. The three-year averages — 237.3 completions, 2,888 passing yards, 20.7 passing touchdowns, and 107.3 rushing yards per season — reflect a quarterback who has been on the field and touching the ball at a starter's rate. He also adds a modest ground dimension: 67 rush attempts and 212 yards in 2024, 35 attempts and 95 yards in 2025. For a drafter who needs a late-round QB2 with a known workload floor, that recent usage history is the starting point.
What the model projects
The projection for Darnold is 209.5 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -57.9, meaning the projection lands below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR format. That places him QB19 and #232 overall, in Tier 9 on the board. His bye week is 11.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 46 | 28 | 297 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24.4 |
| 2024 | 545 | 361 | 4319 | 35 | 12 | 67 | 212 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 320.0 |
| 2025 | 477 | 323 | 4048 | 25 | 14 | 35 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 245.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 356 | 237.3 | 2888 | 20.7 | 9 | 41 | 107.3 | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 7 | — | — | 204.2 |
The range of outcomes
The projection of 209.5 points is the headline estimate, but simulated season outcomes spread meaningfully around it. In a bottom-10% season (p10), Darnold finishes at or below the low end of the band; in a median simulated season (p50) he lands at the typical outcome; in a top-10% season (p90) he reaches the upper end. The 2025 stat line — 14 interceptions, 10 fumbles (6 lost), and a step back in touchdown production from 35 to 25 — illustrates how wide that variance can run. A clean season with turnover reduction pushes the outcome higher; a repeat of the 2025 turnover rate keeps him near the floor. The three-year aggregate of 9 interceptions and 7 fumbles per season underscores that ball security is the central variable in any Darnold outcome.
How to draft him
Market ADP for Darnold is 158.8 — pick 14.03 in a 12-team draft, drawn from two platforms. Our projection places him QB19 and #232 overall. He is a Tier 9 quarterback. In practice, that means the market is moving on him in the 14th round, well after the position's top tiers have cleared. Drafters who carry a starter into the late rounds without a backup, or who want a high-volume arm as a streaming option, are the most natural fit. His bye in Week 11 is worth noting for roster management purposes.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 209.5 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him QB19 and #232 overall with a draft value of -57.9 — below the replacement-level baseline for the position in a 12-team format.
In 2024 he posted 4,319 passing yards, 35 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 212 rushing yards on 67 attempts. In 2025 he had 4,048 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and 95 rushing yards on 35 attempts.
His market ADP is 158.8, which works out to pick 14.03 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is where he is currently being selected in public 2026 drafts.
Turnovers. In 2025 he threw 14 interceptions and lost 6 fumbles; in 2024 it was 12 interceptions and 4 fumbles lost. The three-year average is 9 interceptions and 7 fumbles per season. Ball security is the variable that most directly separates his high-end outcomes from his low-end ones.