#230 overall · BUF · 59.3 projected half-PPR pts · -57.6 Draft Value
Ray Davis — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ray Davis has back-to-back seasons of NFL production on his résumé. In 2024 he carried the ball 113 times for 442 rush yards, caught 17 of 19 targets for 189 receiving yards, and scored six total touchdowns — three rushing, three receiving. That is a legitimate dual-threat profile: a back who can contribute on the ground and hold a role in the passing game. His three-year averages back that up, with 85.5 rush attempts, 358.5 rush yards, 13.5 receptions, 137.5 receiving yards, and 4.0 total touchdowns per season. The receiving work, in particular, gives him a floor that pure-carry backs do not have.
What the model projects
The projection for Davis in 2026 is 59.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His Draft Value is -57.6, placing him #230 overall and RB49 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the running back position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. His BUF bye week falls in Week 7.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 113 | 442 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 189 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 107.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 275 | 0 | 13 | 10 | 86 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 53.1 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 85.5 | 358.5 | 1.5 | 16 | 13.5 | 137.5 | 2.5 | — | — | 80.4 |
The range of outcomes
Davis's 2024 and 2025 seasons illustrate the variance in his profile clearly. In 2024 he posted 442 rush yards, 189 receiving yards, and six touchdowns across 113 carries and 19 targets. In 2025 those numbers contracted sharply: 275 rush yards, 86 receiving yards, zero rushing touchdowns, and two receiving touchdowns on just 58 carries and 13 targets. The gap between those two seasons is wide, and it defines the realistic outcome band for 2026. A season closer to his 2024 line would represent a meaningful step above the current projection; a repeat of 2025 would confirm the floor. The three-year averages — 85.5 carries, 358.5 rush yards, 13.5 catches, 137.5 receiving yards — sit roughly in the middle of that range.
How to draft him
Davis is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no established draft-slot cost to plan around. At RB49 and #230 overall in Tier 9, he projects as a below-replacement-level asset in a 12-team half-PPR league. He is a late-round or waiver-wire name to monitor rather than a player to target with a meaningful pick. If you are building depth at running back and his name is still on the board in the final rounds, the dual-threat history gives him more upside than his current rank suggests — but the projection and Draft Value are clear about where he stands today.
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Questions drafters ask
At RB49 and #230 overall with a Draft Value of -57.6, Davis projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He carries late-round or waiver-wire value rather than a meaningful draft investment.
In 2024 Davis posted 113 rush attempts for 442 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, plus 17 receptions on 19 targets for 189 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns — six total scores.
Production dropped significantly: 58 rush attempts, 275 rush yards, 0 rushing touchdowns, 10 receptions on 13 targets, 86 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns — roughly half the workload and no rushing scores.
Yes. He caught 17 of 19 targets in 2024 and averaged 13.5 receptions and 137.5 receiving yards per season over the past three years, giving him a passing-game role that adds to his fantasy floor relative to pure-carry backs.