#259 overall · BUF · 58.9 projected half-PPR pts · -68.2 Draft Value
Ray Davis — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Ray Davis logged 113 rush attempts, 442 rush yards, and 3 rushing touchdowns in 2024, adding 17 receptions for 189 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns on 19 targets. That six-touchdown season shows he can find the end zone both on the ground and through the air. His 2025 line was leaner, 58 rush attempts, 275 rush yards, 10 receptions for 86 yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns, but the receiving touchdowns confirm he remained a factor near the goal line. The three-year averages settle at 85.5 rush attempts, 358.5 rush yards, 13.5 receptions, 137.5 receiving yards, and 4 combined touchdowns per season. For a drafter hunting late-round depth at running back, Davis has a documented role in a Buffalo offense that generates scoring opportunities.
What the model projects
The projection is 58.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That number places Davis at RB57 and #259 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -68.2, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. These are the numbers as they stand.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 113 | 442 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 189 | 3 | 107.6 |
| 2025 | 58 | 275 | — | 13 | 10 | 86 | 2 | 53.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 85.5 | 358.5 | 1.5 | 16 | 13.5 | 137.5 | 2.5 | 80.4 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10 percent of outcomes produces 4.3 points, a near-zero season. The 25th percentile reaches 19.2 points, still a minimal contribution. The median simulated season lands at 46.6 points, below the 58.9 point projection. The 75th percentile climbs to 87.8 points, and the top 10 percent of outcomes reaches 128.3 points. That gap between the p10 and p90, from 4.3 to 128.3, reflects significant season-to-season variance. The upside exists, but the floor is essentially nothing, and the median outcome is a bench-level season at best.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Davis does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. At RB57 and #259 overall in Tier 9, he profiles as a late-roster add or waiver-wire target rather than a planned draft selection. If you are building depth at running back and need a speculative final pick, Davis has the historical usage to justify a look. His bye falls in Week 7, worth noting when constructing a roster around him.
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Questions drafters ask
Davis carried the ball 113 times for 442 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, and caught 17 of 19 targets for 189 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns.
The projection is 58.9 half-PPR fantasy points, which ranks him RB57 and #259 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -68.2.
The band runs from 4.3 points at the 10th percentile to 128.3 points at the 90th percentile, with a median simulated season of 46.6 points. The range is wide, meaning outcomes vary considerably.
Davis does not have a market ADP in 2026 public drafts, so there is no consistent draft slot to plan around. He is not being selected reliably enough across platforms to register a median pick number.
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Beyond the numbers
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