#919 overall · NYG · 59.8 projected half-PPR pts · -207.6 Draft Value
Russell Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
There is not a strong fantasy case for Russell Wilson in 2026. He lands at QB39 and #919 overall, deep in Tier 9, with a draft value of -207.6 — well below replacement level at the quarterback position. His three-year averages tell the story plainly: 300.7 pass attempts, 2,127.7 pass yards, 15 touchdown passes, and 5.3 interceptions per season. The rushing contribution has been modest — 200.7 rush yards and 1.7 rush touchdowns per year over that same window. The 2025 season produced just 831 pass yards, 3 touchdown passes, and 3 interceptions on 119 attempts. For a drafter building a roster in a 12-team half-PPR league, the numbers as they stand do not support allocating a meaningful pick here.
What the model projects
The projection is 59.8 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. That is the headline number. His draft value sits at -207.6, meaning the projection falls 207.6 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks QB39 at the position and #919 overall.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 447 | 297 | 3070 | 26 | 8 | 80 | 341 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 260.9 |
| 2024 | 336 | 214 | 2482 | 16 | 5 | 43 | 155 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 177.8 |
| 2025 | 119 | 69 | 831 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 52.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 300.7 | 193.3 | 2127.7 | 15 | 5.3 | 47 | 200.7 | 1.7 | — | — | — | — | 6 | — | — | 170.1 |
The range of outcomes
No simulation band data is available for Wilson in these FACTS, so the full percentile spread cannot be reported. What the historical record does show is meaningful variance: 3,070 pass yards and 26 touchdowns in 2023, 2,482 pass yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024, and 831 pass yards and 3 touchdowns across a limited 2025 sample. The three-year per-season averages — 2,127.7 pass yards, 15 touchdowns, 5.3 interceptions, 200.7 rush yards — reflect a production profile that has contracted significantly over the window. The upside scenario requires a full season of work; the downside is already on the record.
How to draft him
No market ADP is available for Wilson, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to register a median pick. At QB39 and #919 overall with a draft value of -207.6, he is a deep-roster consideration at best — the kind of name that surfaces only in the final rounds of deep leagues or as a late emergency add. In a standard 12-team format, there is no draft slot where committing a pick to him makes sense given the projection.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers make it difficult to justify. Wilson projects for 59.8 fantasy points with a draft value of -207.6, placing him QB39 and #919 overall in Tier 9. That is 207.6 points below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks, and no market ADP exists — meaning the broader drafting public is not consistently selecting him at all.
Over 2023–2025, he averaged 300.7 pass attempts, 2,127.7 pass yards, 15 touchdown passes, 5.3 interceptions, 200.7 rush yards, and 1.7 rush touchdowns per season. His 2025 line was the thinnest of the three: 119 attempts, 831 pass yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions.
There is no market ADP available for Wilson — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a median pick number. He is effectively an undrafted player in most 2026 formats.
He is in Tier 9, which is a board-wide grouping of players with similar draft value — in this case, deeply negative draft value at -207.6. His rank of #919 overall and QB39 reflect where he sits relative to all other positions and quarterbacks specifically.