Russell Wilson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Russell Wilson lands with the New York Giants as a veteran quarterback with a real statistical track record. In 2023 he threw for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns while adding 341 rushing yards and 3 rushing scores on 80 attempts. The three-year averages across 2023-2025 show 2,127.7 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 1.7 rushing touchdowns, and 200.7 rushing yards per season, which confirms he can contribute in multiple ways when active. For a drafter who needs a late-roster quarterback with name recognition and a multi-dimensional stat profile, Wilson is at least a known quantity. His 2023 season demonstrates the ceiling is real.

What the model projects

The projection is 59.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That number sits at QB39 and #917 overall, placing Wilson in Tier 9. His draft value is -199.7, meaning the projection lands well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. This is a deep-roster projection, not a starter-level one.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 outcome is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produce nothing. The p25 is 11.0 points and the median simulated season lands at just 20.9 points. The upside exists but requires things to break right: the p75 is 68.6 points and the p90 reaches 130.2. That gap between the median and the p90 is substantial, which reflects genuine variance in how much playing time and production Wilson might see. Most simulated seasons cluster near the low end; the high-end outcomes are real but not the most likely result.

How to draft him

Wilson has no market ADP across the platforms tracked, which means he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. He is a free agent on most rosters, available off the waiver wire or as a final-round handcuff at quarterback. There is no pick cost to budget for him at this time. If you are carrying him, it is as a deep backup or a speculative stash, not as a planned starter. His Tier 9 placement and QB39 rank reflect that role precisely.

Across 2023-2025, Wilson averaged 2,127.7 passing yards, 15 passing touchdowns, 1.7 rushing touchdowns, and 200.7 rushing yards per season. His best recent season was 2023, when he threw for 3,070 yards and 26 touchdowns and rushed for 341 yards and 3 scores. The 2024 line dropped to 2,482 passing yards and 16 touchdowns, and the 2025 numbers were significantly reduced across the board.

Wilson is QB39 with a projected 59.8 half-PPR points and a draft value of -199.7. That places him #917 overall in Tier 9, well below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 130.2 at the p90, with a median simulated season of just 20.9 points. The p75 is 68.6 and the p90 is 130.2, so high-end outcomes exist, but the majority of simulated seasons land near the low end of that range.

Wilson has no market ADP available across the platforms tracked, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public 2026 leagues. No pick needs to be budgeted for him at this time.