Mac Jones — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

There is not a strong fantasy case for Mac Jones in 2026. He lands at QB38 and #911 overall, sitting in Tier 9 with a draftValue of -198.7. That number means the projection places him well below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. His three-season averages tell the story plainly: 298.7 pass attempts, 1,981 passing yards, 10.3 passing touchdowns, and 8.7 interceptions per year. His best recent passing season, 2025, produced 2,151 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 289 attempts. Those are functional numbers, but they do not generate the fantasy volume that makes a quarterback startable in most formats. The one honest argument for rostering him is roster-spot flexibility late in a draft, where the cost is essentially nothing, and even then the projection does not reward the decision.

What the model projects

The projection is 60.2 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. His bye week is Week 8. The draftValue of -198.7 reflects a projection that sits meaningfully below the replacement-level baseline for quarterbacks in a 12-team half-PPR league. His three-year rushing profile, averaging 30 attempts and 82.7 yards per season with 0.3 rushing touchdowns, adds a modest on-the-ground dimension, but it does not move the needle enough to change the overall picture. The 2025 season showed his best interception rate of the three-year window, 6 picks on 289 attempts, alongside a career-high 13 passing touchdowns in that span, yet the projection at 60.2 points reflects the full picture of his statistical history.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons produces essentially nothing in fantasy scoring. The p25 sits at just 10.7 points. The median simulated season, p50, lands at 20.6 points. The band does not reach meaningful fantasy territory until the p75, which is 68.0 points, and the p90 tops out at 131.4 points. That upper tail represents a genuine outlier scenario, not a base expectation. The gap between the median outcome of 20.6 and the p90 of 131.4 illustrates how much variance surrounds this projection. Most simulated seasons cluster well below the 60.2 point estimate, which is itself pulled upward by the high-end tail.

How to draft him

Jones is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. In practice, that means he is available as a free agent or a final-round flier in most drafts. At QB38 and #911 overall, he functions as a deep handcuff or a bye-week fill-in at best. If you are carrying two quarterbacks, the second slot is the only place Jones belongs, and only after your starter is secured. His Tier 9 placement signals that the rankings treat him as a fringe roster option rather than a contributor. Draft him only if you have exhausted every other position of need and need a quarterback name on your roster.

At QB38 and #911 overall with a draftValue of -198.7, the projection places him well below replacement level. He is not being drafted consistently enough to carry a market ADP, which means he is effectively a free agent in most leagues. The projection of 60.2 points and a median simulated season of just 20.6 points do not support spending a meaningful pick on him.

Over the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 298.7 pass attempts, 1,981 passing yards, 10.3 passing touchdowns, and 8.7 interceptions per year. His 2025 season was his strongest in the window: 2,151 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on 289 attempts. He has also averaged 30 rush attempts and 82.7 rush yards per season across those three years.

Very wide, and skewed low. The p10 outcome is 0.0 points and the p50 median is 20.6 points. The band does not reach 68.0 points until the p75, and the p90 ceiling is 131.4 points. The upside exists but represents a small fraction of simulated seasons.

Mac Jones has a Week 8 bye in 2026.