#60 overall · CHI · 138.7 projected half-PPR pts · +9.9 Draft Value · Market ADP 54.5
Rome Odunze — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Rome Odunze has been a volume receiver from the moment he arrived in Chicago. In 2024 he drew 101 targets, hauling in 54 receptions for 734 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2025 the target share dipped to 90, but the touchdown rate climbed: 6 scores on 44 catches and 661 yards. Averaged across the three-year window, he has seen 95.5 targets, 49 receptions, 697.5 receiving yards, and 4.5 receiving touchdowns per season. That is a consistent workload for a receiver still early in his career. The projection sits at 138.7 half-PPR points with a draft value of +9.9, meaning he projects above replacement level at the position. He lands at WR26 and #60 overall in Tier 8.
What the model projects
The projection is 138.7 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 143.8 points, close to but not identical to that point estimate. His draft value is +9.9 above replacement level at wide receiver. He is ranked WR26 and #60 overall, placed in Tier 8. Chicago's bye week falls in Week 10, a mid-season rest week drafters should note when building their roster depth.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 101 | 54 | 734 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 117.9 |
| 2025 | 90 | 44 | 661 | 6 | — | — | — | 124.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 95.5 | 49 | 697.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 122.0 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, which reflects genuine season-to-season variance for a receiver in this situation. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 62.6 points. The 25th percentile sits at 101.2 points. The median simulated season is 143.8 points. The 75th percentile reaches 178.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons come in at or above 214.3 points. That is a spread of roughly 152 points from the p10 to the p90. The upside case is a legitimate WR2 season; the downside case is a near-irrelevant fantasy contributor. His 2024 fumble situation, one fumble lost on two total, is worth noting as a minor negative in the historical record.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Odunze going at pick 54.5, which works out to the 5th round, 6th pick in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rankings place him at #60 overall. In practical terms, if you want Odunze, you are spending a fifth-round pick to get him. At that draft slot he is a WR3 with a credible path to WR2 production, backed by three seasons of consistent target volume. Roster accordingly: his Week 10 bye will require a plug-in starter, so building depth at receiver before that week arrives is sound planning.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He saw 101 targets in 2024 and 90 in 2025, for a three-year average of 95.5 targets per season. The volume has been consistent even as other counting stats have shifted year to year.
The p90 of the simulated outcome band is 214.3 half-PPR points, meaning roughly 1-in-10 simulated seasons reach that level. The p75 is 178.2 points. Those figures represent a legitimate WR2 ceiling.
The p10 of the band is 62.6 points and the p25 is 101.2 points. In a bad season, Odunze projects as a fringe fantasy contributor, so he carries real risk alongside his upside.
Market ADP puts him at pick 54.5, which is the 6th pick of the 5th round in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, that is the window where you need to spend the pick.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →