#55 overall · PIT · 135.6 projected half-PPR pts · +13.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 67.6
DK Metcalf — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DK Metcalf arrives in Pittsburgh carrying a three-year track record that is quietly consistent: 108.7 targets, 63.7 receptions, 985.3 receiving yards, and 6.3 receiving touchdowns per season on average from 2023 through 2025. The target volume has never dipped below 99 in any of those three seasons, and the touchdown floor has held at five or better each year. That kind of workload reliability is the foundation of a fantasy asset. He lands as WR27 with a positive draft value of +13.1 points above replacement, sitting in Tier 7 on the overall board. The case is straightforward: a high-volume receiver with a proven floor, now in a new uniform, projecting above replacement at his position.
What the model projects
The projection is 135.6 half-PPR fantasy points, placing Metcalf at #55 overall and WR27. His draft value of +13.1 confirms he projects above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The projection reflects his three-year averages — consistent target share, steady reception totals, and a touchdown rate that has ranged from five to eight scores per season — rather than any single outlier year. His bye week falls on Week 9.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 119 | 66 | 1114 | 8 | — | 0 | 0 | 192.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 66 | 992 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 158.2 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 99 | 59 | 850 | 6 | — | 0 | 0 | 157.7 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 0.7 | 4 | 0.3 | 108.7 | 63.7 | 985.3 | 6.3 | 0.7 | — | — | 170.4 |
The range of outcomes
Metcalf's recent history maps out the realistic ceiling and floor clearly. His best recent season was 2023: 119 targets, 66 receptions, 1,114 yards, and 8 touchdowns. His softest was 2025: 99 targets, 59 receptions, 850 yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns (plus a rushing score). The 2024 season added a fumble concern — two fumbles lost — that is worth monitoring. The spread between his high and low seasons is meaningful: roughly 264 receiving yards and three touchdowns separate his best from his worst recent output. A new offense introduces additional variance in either direction. Drafters should expect a season somewhere in that band, with the upside tied to target volume and the downside tied to touchdown regression and ball-security.
How to draft him
The market is currently taking Metcalf at an average draft position of 67.6 — that works out to pick 6.08 in a 12-team snake draft. Our model ranks him #55 overall and WR27. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him; that is the window the market is pricing him into. At that stage of the draft, you are acquiring a receiver with a three-year average of 108.7 targets and a +13.1 draft value above replacement. Note that adp is drawn from only two platforms here, so treat the market signal as directional rather than definitive. His Week 9 bye is a mid-season consideration worth noting when constructing your roster.
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Questions drafters ask
Consistent and high. He saw 119 targets in 2023, 108 in 2024, and 99 in 2025 — a three-year average of 108.7 per season. The floor has never dropped below 99.
The market's current average draft position is 67.6, which translates to pick 6.08 in a 12-team draft — a sixth-round pick. Note that this ADP is drawn from two platforms, so treat it as a directional signal.
Over the past three seasons his receiving touchdowns have ranged from a low of 5 (2024) to a high of 8 (2023), with a three-year average of 6.3. He also added a rushing touchdown in 2025. The floor is real but so is the ceiling.
It is worth noting. In 2024 he fumbled twice and lost both. That was the only season in the three-year window where fumbles appeared in his stat line, but it is a data point to keep in mind when assessing his overall floor.