#69 overall · PIT · 131.8 projected half-PPR pts · +3.1 Draft Value · Market ADP 70.2
DK Metcalf — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
DK Metcalf has logged 66 receptions in back-to-back seasons and has averaged 108.7 targets per year over the last three. That target volume is a real floor. His three-year averages also include 985.3 receiving yards and 6.3 receiving touchdowns per season, numbers that reflect a receiver who has been a consistent volume anchor regardless of what else has changed around him. The 2023 season showed his ceiling: 1,114 yards and 8 touchdowns on 119 targets. Even in his quieter 2025 campaign, he posted 850 yards, 6 receiving scores, and added a rushing touchdown on 2 carries. The aggregate picture is a receiver who sees the ball consistently and converts it into points at a reliable rate.
What the model projects
The projection is 131.8 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 133.9 points, close to that figure. Metcalf sits at WR31 by draft value and ranks #69 overall. His draft value is +3.1, meaning the projection places him above replacement level at the wide receiver position. He carries a Tier 8 designation. His bye week is Week 9.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 119 | 66 | 1114 | 8 | — | — | — | — | 192.4 |
| 2024 | 108 | 66 | 992 | 5 | — | — | — | 2 | 158.2 |
| 2025 | 99 | 59 | 850 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 1 | — | 157.7 |
| 3-yr avg | 108.7 | 63.7 | 985.3 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 170.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 56.5 points. The 25th percentile is 92.7 points. The median is 133.9. The 75th percentile reaches 168.5 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 206.6 points. That is a spread of 150 points between the p10 and p90, which signals meaningful season-to-season variance. The downside is real: a p10 outcome would make him a near-miss at his draft cost. The upside, however, touches a genuinely productive WR1 range. His three-year fumble average of 0.7 per season is a small but real negative in the floor calculation.
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our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP is 70.2, which works out to pick 6.10 in a 12-team snake draft, drawn from two platforms. His #69 overall rank and his ADP are essentially aligned. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him. At that point in the draft, his three-year target average of 108.7 and his consistent receptions floor make him a reasonable volume play. The wide outcome band means you are accepting real variance, so pairing him with more stable contributors elsewhere on your roster is worth considering.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 108.7 targets per season over 2023-2025, with individual season totals of 119, 108, and 99. Receptions have been steady at 66, 66, and 59 across those same years.
The projection is 131.8 half-PPR points. The median simulated season from the outcome band is 133.9 points, putting the two figures very close together.
The p10 outcome, the floor for the worst 10% of simulated seasons, is 56.5 points. The p90 outcome, the ceiling for the best 10%, is 206.6 points. That is a range of 150 points, reflecting significant season-to-season variance.
Market ADP is 70.2, which translates to pick 6.10 in a 12-team snake draft. Plan to use a sixth-round selection if he is your target.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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