#110 overall · KC · 246.5 projected half-PPR pts · -12.8 Draft Value · Market ADP 105.8
Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Mahomes has averaged 3,899.3 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 372.7 rushing yards over the past three seasons. The rushing contribution is real: 64 carries and 422 yards on the ground in 2025, with five rushing touchdowns that year alone. His three-year average of 65.7 rush attempts per season adds a floor that pure pocket passers cannot match. The 2025 season showed a step down in pass attempts (502) and passing yards (3,587) from his 2023 peak (597 attempts, 4,183 yards), but the dual-threat profile held. A bye in Week 5 is the one scheduling note worth flagging early.
What the model projects
The projection is 246.5 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Mahomes at QB11 and #110 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -12.8, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 597 | 401 | 4183 | 27 | 14 | 75 | 389 | — | 5 | 294.2 |
| 2024 | 581 | 392 | 3928 | 26 | 11 | 58 | 307 | 2 | 2 | 293.5 |
| 2025 | 502 | 315 | 3587 | 22 | 11 | 64 | 422 | 5 | 3 | 292.2 |
| 3-yr avg | 560 | 369.3 | 3899.3 | 25 | 12 | 65.7 | 372.7 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 295.1 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide. The bottom 10% of outcomes lands at 96.2 points, a number that reflects how badly a season can go. The 25th percentile is 176.6 points and the median simulated season is 235.8 points, slightly below the 246.5 point estimate. The 75th percentile reaches 303.0 points and the top 10% of outcomes climbs to 358.0 points. That 261.8-point spread between p10 and p90 captures meaningful season-to-season variance, and the upside case is a genuinely productive fantasy season. The downside case, however, is severe enough to weigh carefully given his negative draft value.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP sits at 105.8, which works out to pick 9.10 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #110 overall. Both numbers place him in the same late-round territory, so the timing question is straightforward: if you want Mahomes, you are spending a pick in the ninth round. At QB11 with a negative draft value, the calculus is whether the dual-threat upside and name recognition justify that slot over waiting even longer at the position. The band says the ceiling is real; the draft value says the floor is not.
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Questions drafters ask
The model projects him at 246.5 points, which ranks him QB11 with a draft value of -12.8, below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season is 235.8 points. He is a viable starter, but the projection does not treat him as a top-tier fantasy asset at this time.
It matters consistently. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 65.7 rush attempts and 372.7 rushing yards per year. In 2025 he posted 422 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns on 64 carries, his best rushing touchdown total in the three-year window.
Market ADP is 105.8, which translates to pick 9.10 in a 12-team snake draft. That is the round where he is currently being taken in public drafts, based on a two-platform median.
The bottom 10% of simulated seasons lands at 96.2 points, and the 25th percentile is 176.6 points. Those are low totals for a starting quarterback. The upside at the 90th percentile is 358.0 points, so the range is wide in both directions.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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