Patrick Mahomes — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Patrick Mahomes is QB5 and sits in Tier 8 on the board. That positioning reflects a half-PPR scoring environment where quarterbacks accumulate value more slowly than skill-position players, but Mahomes brings a floor that is hard to ignore. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 3,899.3 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 372.7 rushing yards per year. The rushing contribution is real and consistent — 75, 58, and 64 attempts across 2023, 2024, and 2025 — and it adds a scoring dimension most quarterbacks cannot match. In 2025 he posted 422 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on 64 attempts, his most productive ground season of the three-year window. His draftValue sits at +1.5, meaning the projection places him above replacement level at the position. He is a known commodity in a stable offensive environment, and his bye falls in Week 5 — early enough that the disruption is manageable.

What the model projects

The model projects Mahomes at 268.9 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That projection is built on a three-year average of 560 pass attempts, 369.3 completions, 25 passing touchdowns, and 12 interceptions per season, layered with his consistent rushing volume. The 2025 season showed a dip in passing volume — 502 attempts, 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns — but compensated with a career-high 5 rushing touchdowns in the sample window. The projection at 268.9 points reflects that full picture: a quarterback whose passing efficiency and rushing upside combine to keep him above the replacement line at QB5.

The range of outcomes

The simulation band for Mahomes spans a meaningful range. At the 10th percentile — a bad season, bottom 10% of simulated outcomes — he finishes at or below his p10. At the median (p50), the typical simulated season lands at his p50. At the 90th percentile — a great season, top 10% of outcomes — he reaches his p90. The primary drivers of downside are passing volume compression (as seen in 2025's 502-attempt season) and turnover rate, where his three-year average of 12 interceptions and 3.3 fumbles per season represent a consistent drag. The upside case leans on rushing touchdowns — he posted 5 in 2025 after zero in 2023 — and any expansion of the passing game back toward his 2023 pace of 597 attempts and 4,183 yards.

How to draft him

Mahomes is #69 overall and QB5. Market ADP, drawn from two platforms, places him at pick 85.6 — round 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. In a standard snake draft, the late-round quarterback strategy is a common framework at this position, and knowing that the market is currently pricing him in the eighth round gives you a concrete planning target. His Week 5 bye is worth noting for roster management purposes — build depth at quarterback or at other positions that share that week off.

He projects at 268.9 half-PPR points and ranks QB5 with a draftValue of +1.5, placing him above replacement level at the position. His three-year averages of 3,899.3 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 372.7 rushing yards per season support that projection as a reasonable baseline for a QB1 starter.

Meaningfully. Over 2023–2025 he averaged 65.7 rush attempts and 372.7 rush yards per season. In 2025 specifically he posted 422 rushing yards and 5 rushing touchdowns on 64 attempts — his most productive rushing touchdown season in the three-year window — and that ground contribution is baked into the 268.9-point projection.

Market ADP across two platforms puts him at pick 85.6, which works out to round 8, pick 2 in a 12-team draft. That is the pick range where you would need to commit to secure him.

Passing volume compression and turnovers. His attempts dropped from 597 in 2023 to 502 in 2025, and his three-year average of 12 interceptions and 3.3 fumbles per season represent a consistent scoring drag. A season at the lower end of his volume range is the clearest path to a disappointing fantasy output.