#68 overall · ARI · 125.7 projected half-PPR pts · +3.2 Draft Value · Market ADP 71.1
Marvin Harrison — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Marvin Harrison Jr. put up 885 receiving yards, 62 receptions on 116 targets, and 8 receiving touchdowns in 2024 — a legitimate WR1 stat line in his rookie season. The 2025 campaign was shorter and quieter: 608 yards, 41 catches on 73 targets, and 4 scores. Averaged across the three-year window, he has posted 746.5 receiving yards, 51.5 receptions, 94.5 targets, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season. The talent and target volume are real. Arizona's offense runs through him, and the touchdown upside from 2024 is not a fluke to be dismissed.
What the model projects
The projection is 125.7 half-PPR fantasy points, which lands Harrison at #68 overall and WR36. He sits in Tier 8 on the board. His draft value is +3.2, meaning he projects above replacement level at the wide receiver position. That surplus is modest but positive — he is expected to return more than a freely available replacement would.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 165.5 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 41 | 608 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 105.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 94.5 | 51.5 | 746.5 | 6 | 0.5 | — | — | 136.4 |
The range of outcomes
Harrison's two-season track record already shows meaningful variance: a high-volume, high-touchdown 2024 followed by a step back in 2025 across every counting category. That history is the clearest signal of how wide his outcome band can run. A season closer to his 2024 form — 116 targets, 8 touchdowns — would push him well above the 125.7-point projection. A repeat of 2025's reduced role would fall short of it. The fumble-lost in 2024 is a minor negative but not a pattern. The touchdown rate is the single biggest swing variable: he scored 8 times in 2024 and 4 times in 2025, and where that number lands will largely determine his fantasy season.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Harrison going at pick 71.1 — round 6, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our model has him at #68 overall and WR36. Plan to spend a sixth-round pick if you want him on your roster. At that stage of the draft, you are paying for the upside of his 2024 ceiling while accepting the risk that 2025 is the more representative season. His bye is Week 14, which falls during the fantasy playoffs in most formats — factor that into your roster construction.
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Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he posted 885 receiving yards, 62 receptions on 116 targets, and 8 receiving touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers dropped to 608 yards, 41 catches on 73 targets, and 4 touchdowns. His three-year average (which includes 2023) works out to 746.5 receiving yards, 51.5 receptions, 94.5 targets, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season.
He is projected for 125.7 half-PPR fantasy points, ranking #68 overall and WR36 with a draft value of +3.2 points above replacement. He sits in Tier 8 on the board.
Market ADP puts him at pick 71.1 — round 6, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you should expect to spend.
Harrison's bye is Week 14. In most 12-team leagues that falls during the fantasy playoffs, so you will need a viable replacement at wide receiver for that week if he is a key piece of your lineup.