#74 overall · ARI · 129.0 projected half-PPR pts · +0.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 69.2
Marvin Harrison — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Marvin Harrison's 2024 season is the anchor of the argument. As a rookie, he drew 116 targets, caught 62 of them for 885 yards, and scored 8 receiving touchdowns. That target volume alone placed him among the more heavily used receivers in his class, and the touchdown rate gave his half-PPR line real weight. The three-year aggregate tells a similar story: 94.5 targets, 51.5 receptions, 746.5 receiving yards, and 6 receiving touchdowns per season on average, with just 0.5 fumbles per year. The 2025 line was lighter across the board, 73 targets, 41 catches, 608 yards, and 4 scores, but the underlying target share still reflects a receiver who is a genuine part of his offense. Harrison is WR32 in a format where replacement level is the floor, and his draftValue sits at exactly +0.0, meaning the projection lands right at that floor. That is not a ringing endorsement, but it does mean any positive deviation from the median outcome produces surplus value.
What the model projects
The projection is 129.0 half-PPR points. The median simulated season, at 129.8 points, tracks almost exactly with that figure, which means the point estimate and the typical outcome are tightly aligned. Harrison ranks #74 overall and WR32, sitting in Tier 9. His draftValue is +0.0, placing him precisely at replacement level for the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR league. His bye week is Week 14.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 116 | 62 | 885 | 8 | 1 | 165.5 |
| 2025 | 73 | 41 | 608 | 4 | — | 105.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 94.5 | 51.5 | 746.5 | 6 | 0.5 | 136.4 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of Harrison's profile. The p10 floor is 54.0 points, a number that represents a genuinely difficult season. The p25 sits at 89.2 points, still well below the projection. On the upside, the p75 reaches 164.5 points and the p90 climbs to 203.6 points, a figure that would represent a strong WR2 season. The distance from the p10 to the p90 spans nearly 150 points, which signals meaningful variance in either direction. The 2024 and 2025 seasons already illustrate that range in practice: 885 yards and 8 touchdowns in one year, 608 yards and 4 touchdowns the next. Drafters who land the upside scenario get a receiver who outperforms his draft cost; those who land the downside scenario are left with a replacement-level or worse result.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Harrison's market ADP is 69.2, which works out to pick 6.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. The model has him at #74 overall and WR32. If you want him, the market is currently pricing him in the sixth round. At that draft slot, the decision is straightforward: he is a late-round wide receiver with a wide outcome band, a projection sitting at replacement level, and a realistic path to a 200-point season if the upside scenarios materialize. Given the variance in his profile, he fits best as a depth piece or a high-upside flex option rather than a foundational starter. Roster construction matters here: pairing him with more stable receivers earlier in the draft gives you the freedom to let Harrison's range play out without putting your season at risk.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
In 2024 he posted 116 targets, 62 receptions, 885 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. In 2025 those numbers came down to 73 targets, 41 receptions, 608 yards, and 4 touchdowns. The three-year aggregate (which includes a partial 2023 season) averages out to 94.5 targets, 51.5 receptions, 746.5 yards, and 6 touchdowns per year.
The projection is 129.0 half-PPR points. He ranks #74 overall and WR32, sits in Tier 9, and carries a draftValue of +0.0, which places him exactly at replacement level for wide receivers in a 12-team half-PPR league.
The band runs from 54.0 points at the p10 to 203.6 points at the p90. The median simulated season is 129.8 points. The p75 outcome is 164.5 points. That nearly 150-point spread from floor to ceiling reflects genuine season-to-season variance, and the top-end scenario is a legitimate WR2-caliber season.
His market ADP is 69.2, which translates to pick 6.09 in a 12-team snake draft, based on a median across two platforms. If you want him, the sixth round is currently when the market is taking him.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
Get the book on your rivals →