J.J. McCarthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

The case is thin, and honesty demands saying so upfront. McCarthy's 2025 season produced 1,632 passing yards, 140 completions on 243 attempts, 11 passing touchdowns, 4 rushing touchdowns, and 181 rushing yards across 37 carries. Those are the only NFL numbers on record, and the three-year aggregate matches them exactly, meaning 2025 is the entirety of his professional history. For a drafter building a deep roster in a two-QB or superflex format, or simply stashing a late flier, the rushing contribution is the one thread worth pulling. Four rushing touchdowns and 181 yards on 37 carries show some dual-threat floor, however modest. That is the argument. It is a speculative one.

What the model projects

The projection is 65.8 half-PPR fantasy points. That sits at QB37 and #914 overall, placing McCarthy in Tier 9. His draft value is -193.7, which is below replacement level at the quarterback position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The point estimate reflects a stat line that, in 2025, included 12 interceptions against 11 passing touchdowns and a 57.6 completion rate. Five fumbles, two lost, add to the turnover picture. The projection is what it is: a low-volume, high-variance number for a quarterback with one partial season of NFL data.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points, meaning the worst 10 percent of simulated seasons produce nothing. The p25 is 13.1 points. The median simulated season lands at just 24.2 points. The p75 reaches 77.8 and the p90 climbs to 142.8, which is the only scenario where McCarthy becomes a usable fantasy asset. That gap between the median and the 90th percentile is the defining feature of this projection. Most simulated seasons end well below the point estimate of 65.8; the mean is pulled upward by a tail of high-end outcomes that are real but not probable. Drafters should treat the 24.2 median as the base expectation and the 142.8 ceiling as the reason to bother at all.

How to draft him

McCarthy does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being consistently drafted on the platforms that feed this data. In practical terms, he is a free agent in most drafts: available off the wire or as a final-round stash rather than a pick you need to plan around. His bye is Week 6. If you are in a format that rewards a second quarterback, he is a name to monitor rather than a name to spend on. At QB37 and #914 overall, the rankings reflect a player who needs significant circumstantial change before he becomes a reliable fantasy starter.

At QB37 and #914 overall with a draft value of -193.7, he projects below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season is 24.2 points. In a single-QB league he is a deep stash at best, not a starter.

He completed 140 of 243 passes for 1,632 yards, threw 11 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions, added 181 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 37 carries, and fumbled 5 times, losing 2. That is the only NFL history on record; the three-year aggregate is identical.

The band runs from 0.0 points at the p10 to 142.8 at the p90, with a median of 24.2. The ceiling is real but the most likely outcome is well below the 65.8 point projection. Most simulated seasons cluster in the low-to-mid range.

McCarthy has no market ADP across public 2026 drafts, meaning he is not being consistently selected. He is effectively available as a waiver-wire add in most leagues rather than a pick you need to budget.