#916 overall · MIN · 65.8 projected half-PPR pts · -201.7 Draft Value
J.J. McCarthy — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
J.J. McCarthy is the starting quarterback in Minnesota, and that job alone keeps him on the radar for deep-league drafters and two-QB formats. In 2025 he posted 181 rush yards and 4 rushing touchdowns on 37 attempts, giving him a dual-threat floor that not every quarterback at his tier can claim. His 15 combined touchdowns — 11 passing, 4 rushing — came in a limited sample of 243 pass attempts, so the per-game rate is worth noting. If the opportunity expands, the rushing upside is already established on tape and in the stat sheet.
What the model projects
The projection is 65.8 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That places McCarthy at QB36 and #916 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -201.7, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the quarterback position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. These numbers reflect a limited role as currently constructed. His bye week is Week 6.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 243 | 140 | 1632 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 181 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 135.4 |
| 3-yr avg | 243 | 140 | 1632 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 181 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | — | 139.4 |
The range of outcomes
McCarthy's 2025 season — 1,632 passing yards, 140 completions on 243 attempts, 11 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 2 fumbles lost — is the entire three-year aggregate as well, meaning his NFL résumé is concentrated in that one season. That concentration creates genuine variance in both directions. A larger role or improved efficiency could push his output well above the current projection; a continued limited workload keeps him near the floor. The interception-to-touchdown ratio (12 to 11) and the turnover total (5 fumbles, 2 lost) are the clearest risks in the profile.
How to draft him
McCarthy is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no established draft-slot cost to report. In practice, he is a late-flier or waiver-wire name in standard 12-team leagues. In two-QB or Superflex formats he becomes more relevant, but his Tier 9 standing and QB36 rank mean he should be treated as a speculative add rather than a planned draft investment. His Week 6 bye is worth logging early so it does not catch you off guard in a thin quarterback week.
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Questions drafters ask
At QB36 and #916 overall with a draft value of -201.7, he projects below replacement level in standard formats. He is a speculative option at best — more relevant in two-QB or Superflex leagues where quarterback scarcity changes the calculus.
In 2025 he carried 37 times for 181 yards and scored 4 rushing touchdowns. That rushing touchdown total is a real source of fantasy value and the most compelling part of his profile at this tier.
He threw 12 interceptions against 11 passing touchdowns and fumbled 5 times, losing 2. Turnover volume is the primary risk factor in his profile.
Week 6. In a thin quarterback situation, that is a week to plan around well in advance.