Kendrick Bourne — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Kendrick Bourne lands with the Arizona Cardinals as a veteran receiver with three years of NFL production on record. His best recent season came in 2025, when he posted 551 receiving yards on 53 targets and 37 receptions, his highest yardage total across the three seasons in the FACTS. The three-year averages tell a consistent story: 48.7 targets, 34 receptions, 420.7 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season. He is a known commodity at the position, and for a drafter building late-round depth, that consistency has some floor value.

What the model projects

The projection for Bourne is 49.9 half-PPR fantasy points this season. His draftValue is -78.9, placing him #297 overall and WR103 in Tier 9. Those numbers reflect a player sitting well below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The projection is a point estimate; the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 31.9 points, which is notably lower than the 49.9 point estimate, indicating the distribution of outcomes is skewed toward the upside rather than centered on the headline number.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide and weighted heavily toward low-end results. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Bourne finishes at just 0.3 points. The 25th percentile sits at 12.6 points. The median simulated season lands at 31.9 points. Moving up the band, the 75th percentile reaches 64.4 points and the 90th percentile climbs to 105.5 points. That top-end number represents a meaningful upside scenario, but the distance between the median and the p90 underscores how infrequently that outcome materializes. The bulk of simulated seasons cluster well below the point estimate, and the floor is essentially zero.

How to draft him

Bourne is not being drafted consistently enough across public platforms to carry a market ADP, so there is no draft-slot anchor to work from. At WR103 and #297 overall in Tier 9, he sits deep in the rankings. His draftValue of -78.9 means the projection puts him below replacement level, so any roster claim on him comes at the cost of a pick that could go toward a player projecting above that threshold. If a drafter is targeting late-round lottery tickets with a real p90 ceiling, the 105.5-point upside scenario is at least a real number. But the median outcome of 31.9 points and a near-zero floor make him a speculative add at best, and only after positional needs are addressed.

Across 2023, 2024, and 2025, he averaged 48.7 targets, 34 receptions, 420.7 receiving yards, and 1.7 receiving touchdowns per season. His best yardage season in that stretch was 2025, when he posted 551 receiving yards on 53 targets.

The projection is 49.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That produces a draftValue of -78.9, ranking him #297 overall and WR103 in Tier 9 of the 12-team half-PPR rankings.

The p10 floor is 0.3 points and the median simulated season (p50) is 31.9 points, so most simulated seasons land well below the point estimate. The p90 upside is 105.5 points, which is a real number, but it represents only the top 10% of simulated outcomes.

Bourne does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. At #297 overall and WR103, he is a deep-roster speculative option with no defined draft slot in current public drafts.