Juwan Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Juwan Johnson posted the best statistical season of his career in 2025: 102 targets, 77 receptions, 889 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. That target share represents a meaningful step up from the 66 he saw in 2024 and the 59 in 2023, and the 77 catches on 102 looks is a catch rate that signals genuine involvement in the passing game, not just volume noise. Over the three-year window from 2023 through 2025, he averaged 75.7 targets, 54.7 receptions, 601.7 receiving yards, and 3.3 receiving touchdowns per season. The 2025 line sits well above every one of those averages, which means the trend is moving in the right direction. For a tight end, consistent target volume is the foundation everything else is built on, and Johnson has been building it.

What the model projects

The projection for Johnson is 88.3 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value is -31.7, which places him below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. That lands him at TE18 by position and #158 overall, in Tier 9. The projection of 88.3 points sits below his 2025 actual production, and the median simulated season (p50) comes in at 96.2 points, which is modestly above the point estimate. Both numbers are worth keeping in mind as you evaluate the range.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 36.6 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 63.5. The median is 96.2. The optimistic side runs to 119.1 points at the 75th percentile and 147.9 at the 90th. That is a spread of more than 111 points between the bottom and top decile, which reflects real season-to-season variance at the position. Johnson has also shown a fumble problem worth noting: 2 fumbles in 2024, 2 fumbles and 2 fumbles lost in 2025. Fumble rates can compress a season quickly, and that pattern is present in the recent history. The touchdown line has held steady at 3 in each of the last two seasons; a jump there is the clearest path to the upper end of the band.

How to draft him

Johnson sits at #158 overall and TE18. His market ADP is 175.1, which works out to pick 15.07 in a 12-team draft. That means the market is currently taking him in the 15th round. If you want him, that is roughly the window you are working with. At Tier 9 and below replacement level by draft value, he profiles as a late-round flier at tight end rather than a core piece of a roster. His bye is Week 8, which is worth noting for lineup planning if you do add him.

The model projects him at 88.3 points with a draft value of -31.7, meaning he projects below replacement level at tight end in a 12-team half-PPR format. He ranks TE18 and #158 overall in Tier 9. He is a late-round depth option, not a starter you can count on.

Johnson has seen his target volume grow each of the last three seasons: 59 in 2023, 66 in 2024, and 102 in 2025. His three-year average is 75.7 targets per season. The 2025 number is the career high and sits well above that average.

The 90th-percentile simulated season lands at 147.9 half-PPR points. That is the top-decile outcome. The 75th percentile is 119.1. Getting there likely requires the touchdown rate to climb above the 3 he has posted in each of the last two seasons.

His market ADP is 175.1, which translates to pick 15.07 in a 12-team draft. If you want Johnson on your roster, the 15th round is the window the market is currently pricing him into.