#160 overall · NO · 85.1 projected half-PPR pts · -26.9 Draft Value
Juwan Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Juwan Johnson's three-year arc is one of steady volume growth. He ran 59 targets in 2023, 66 in 2024, and 102 in 2025 — that last number representing a meaningful step up in usage. Receptions followed the same trajectory: 37, 50, then 77. Receiving yards climbed from 368 to 548 to 889. The touchdowns have been consistent if unspectacular: 4 in 2023, 3 in 2024, 3 in 2025, averaging 3.3 per season over the three-year window. The three-year averages — 75.7 targets, 54.7 receptions, 601.7 receiving yards, 3.3 receiving touchdowns — describe a tight end who has earned a real role in New Orleans' offense and held it. The 2025 season was his best on record, and it gives him a credible floor heading into 2026.
What the model projects
The projection is 85.1 half-PPR fantasy points. That places Johnson at TE19 and #160 overall, landing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -26.9, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the tight end position in a standard 12-team half-PPR format. The numbers reflect a player who contributes but does not clear the bar that separates startable tight ends from streaming options.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 37 | 368 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 79.3 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66 | 50 | 548 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 97.8 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 102 | 77 | 889 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 141.4 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75.7 | 54.7 | 601.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | — | — | 107.3 |
The range of outcomes
Johnson's season-to-season history illustrates the variance baked into his profile. Receiving yards have ranged from 368 to 889 across 2023–2025. Touchdowns have held at 3–4 across all three seasons, but yardage and target volume have swung considerably. The 2025 breakout — 102 targets, 77 receptions, 889 yards — is the optimistic case. The prior two seasons, with 59 and 66 targets respectively, represent the floor. Whether 2025 represents a new baseline or a high-water mark is the central question his range of outcomes is built around.
How to draft him
Johnson is not currently being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. At TE19 and #160 overall in Tier 9, with a draft value of -26.9, he projects below replacement level. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration in most 12-team formats — a name to know if you need a streaming tight end, not a player to spend meaningful draft capital on. His bye is Week 8, worth noting if you carry him as a backup.
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Questions drafters ask
He saw 59 targets in 2023, 66 in 2024, and 102 in 2025. The three-year average is 75.7. The 2025 number is a clear step above his prior two seasons, so the honest answer is that it could be a new baseline or a peak — the history alone doesn't settle it.
Very consistent in a narrow range: 4 receiving touchdowns in 2023, 3 in 2024, and 3 in 2025, for a three-year average of 3.3. He's not a high-volume touchdown threat, but he hasn't gone cold either.
He is TE19 by position rank and #160 overall. His draft value is -26.9, which puts him below replacement level at the position in a 12-team half-PPR format.
He does not have a market ADP — he isn't being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. In practice, that means he is available as a late add or off the waiver wire in most 12-team drafts rather than a player requiring a committed pick.