#158 overall · TB · 90.3 projected half-PPR pts · -26.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 109.3
Kenny Gainwell — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Kenny Gainwell's 2025 season was his most productive on record. He logged 114 rush attempts for 537 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 receiving yards, and added 3 receiving touchdowns — a reception rate and target volume that signal genuine involvement in the passing game. His three-year averages back that up: 91 rush attempts, 48 targets, and 39.7 receptions per season. Now with Tampa Bay, he carries that workload history into a new situation. The 2025 receiving line — 73 catches, 486 yards, 3 scores — is the kind of floor that keeps a back relevant in half-PPR formats even when the rushing production fluctuates.
What the model projects
The projection is 90.3 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts Gainwell at RB38 and #158 overall, placing him in Tier 9. His draft value is -26.6, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position on a 12-team half-PPR baseline. Tampa Bay's bye is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 84 | 364 | 2 | 37 | 30 | 183 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 80.4 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 290 | 1 | 22 | 16 | 116 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 54.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 537 | 5 | 85 | 73 | 486 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 184.8 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | 0.3 | 5.7 | — | — | 91 | 397 | 2.7 | 48 | 39.7 | 261.7 | 1 | 1.7 | — | — | 108.1 |
The range of outcomes
Gainwell's recent history illustrates how wide his outcome band can run. In 2023 he totaled 364 rush yards, 183 receiving yards, and 2 rushing touchdowns. In 2024 those numbers compressed to 290 rush yards, 116 receiving yards, and 1 rushing touchdown. Then 2025 produced the career-best line described above. That year-to-year variance is real, and it shapes the simulated season band. A low-end season looks closer to his 2024 output; a high-end season looks closer to 2025. The fumble history — 3 in 2023, 2 in 2025 — is a factor that can cap upside in any given year.
How to draft him
Public drafts are placing Gainwell at pick 109.3 on average — that translates to the 10th round, 1st pick in a 12-team snake draft (10.01), based on a median across two platforms. Our projection has him at #158 overall and RB38. Draft him only if you need late-round depth at running back and are comfortable with a player whose projection sits below replacement level. His 2025 receiving volume gives him a path to relevance, but the numbers as they stand make him a depth option rather than a building block.
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Questions drafters ask
He ran 114 times for 537 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns, and caught 73 of 85 targets for 486 receiving yards and 3 receiving touchdowns — his most productive season across all three years of available history.
The projection is 90.3 half-PPR points, which ranks him RB38 and #158 overall. He sits in Tier 9 with a draft value of -26.6, placing him below replacement level at the running back position.
Public drafts are taking him at an average of pick 109.3, which works out to the 10th round, 1st pick (10.01) in a 12-team snake draft. That median is drawn from two platforms.
It has varied. He saw 37 targets in 2023, 22 in 2024, and 85 in 2025. His three-year average is 48 targets and 39.7 receptions per season, so the 2025 volume was well above his prior baseline.