Justin Tucker — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Justin Tucker is one of the most decorated kickers in NFL history, and his 2023 season is the clearest argument for his upside: 32 made field goals on 37 attempts, 51 extra points, and a long-range profile that included 11 makes from 40-49 yards and one from 50-plus. That kind of volume and accuracy is the ceiling a drafter is buying into. The three-year aggregate (2023-2025) shows a per-season average of 27 made field goals on 33.5 attempts with 55.5 extra points, which is a workload that, in a good year, produces meaningful fantasy scoring at the kicker position. If the 2023 version shows up, the projection band has room to run well above the headline number.

What the model projects

The projection is 102.5 half-PPR fantasy points. Tucker ranks K25 at the position and #262 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -68.8, placing him below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. Those numbers reflect where he sits in the current rankings, not a commentary on his career. The projection is the number to anchor to; the rank and draft value tell you where he falls relative to the rest of the position.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, and the low end is severe. In the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Tucker scores 0.0 points. The 25th percentile is 8.1 points. The median simulated season lands at 62.0 points. The 75th percentile reaches 132.6, and the top 10% of simulated seasons produces 184.8 points. That spread from floor to ceiling is as large as it gets at the position. The 2024 season illustrates the downside in the actual record: 22 made field goals on 30 attempts, 8 misses, and a 40-49 yard make total that dropped from 11 to 5. The 2023 season illustrates the upside. Both are real data points, and the band reflects that both are plausible again.

How to draft him

Tucker does not have a market ADP available, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. In practice, that puts him in the undrafted or very late waiver-wire territory for most public drafts. His rank is K25 and #262 overall with a negative draft value, so the rankings do not support prioritizing him over replacement-level alternatives at the position. If you are committed to rostering him, the late-round or post-draft window is where to look. The wide outcome band means the upside is real, but the floor is also real, and the rankings reflect both.

In 2023 he made 32 of 37 field goal attempts with 51 extra points, including 11 makes from 40-49 yards. In 2024 that dropped to 22 makes on 30 attempts with 8 misses and only 5 makes from 40-49 yards. The three-year average (2023-2025) works out to 27 made field goals per season on 33.5 attempts with 55.5 extra points.

The bottom 10% of simulated seasons produces 0.0 fantasy points, and the 25th percentile is just 8.1 points. The floor is not a theoretical concern; it is a meaningful part of the outcome distribution.

He is K25 at the position and #262 overall in Tier 9. His draft value is -68.8, which is below replacement level for the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format.

There is no market ADP available for Tucker, meaning he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce a reliable median pick number. His rankings place him at K25 and #262 overall, so he is not a player the rankings support targeting ahead of other kickers.