#149 overall · DEN · 105.8 projected half-PPR pts · -24.1 Draft Value
Wil Lutz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Wil Lutz has been one of the more consistent kickers in the league over the past three seasons. Across 2023–2025, he averaged 29.7 made field goals and 38.0 made extra points per season, on 33.3 field goal attempts and 38.7 extra point attempts. His miss rate over that three-year stretch averages just 2.7 field goals per season. In 2024, he was perfect on extra points — 46 for 46 — while converting 31 of 34 field goal attempts. That kind of volume and accuracy is the foundation of a reliable fantasy kicker. Denver's offense generating 46 PAT attempts in a single season signals a high-scoring environment, and Lutz has shown he can handle the workload.
What the model projects
The projection for Lutz in 2026 is 105.8 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -24.1, placing him K8 and #149 overall. He is a Tier 9 asset on the board. The negative draft value reflects the reality of the kicker position: replacement-level production is easier to find at K than at skill positions, and the surplus above that baseline is slim. The projection is what it is — a mid-range kicker output that reflects his recent track record.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | FGM | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | — | 29 | 119.0 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | — | 46 | 139.0 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | — | 39 | 123.0 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 29.7 | 2.7 | 38 | 124.4 |
The range of outcomes
Kicker variance is driven by two things: opportunity and accuracy. Lutz's three-year averages show a steady floor — he has not missed more than a handful of field goals in any recent season, and his extra point conversion has been near-perfect. The 2025 season saw a modest dip in field goal makes (28 on 32 attempts) compared to his 2024 peak (31 on 34), but the attempt volume remained solid. His bye falls in Week 10, which is a manageable gap for roster management. The upside scenario is a Denver offense that pushes PAT attempts back toward the mid-40s and keeps field goal attempts in the low-to-mid 30s; the floor is a quieter offensive year that trims both.
How to draft him
Lutz is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to carry a market ADP. That means there is no defined draft slot to plan around — he is a late-round add when you are ready to close out your roster with a kicker. At K8 and #149 overall, he is a Tier 9 asset, and the draft value of -24.1 is a reminder that no kicker should cost you a meaningful pick. Target him in the final rounds of your draft, after your skill-position core is locked in. His Week 10 bye is worth noting so you can plan a streaming option for that week.
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Questions drafters ask
Over 2023–2025, Lutz averaged 29.7 made field goals on 33.3 attempts per season — an average of just 2.7 misses per year. He was also 46-for-46 on extra points in 2024 and 39-for-39 in 2025.
The projection is 105.8 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks K8 and #149 overall with a draft value of -24.1, placing him in Tier 9.
He does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to establish one. Plan to take him in the final rounds of your draft when you are filling the kicker slot, after your skill-position core is set.
Lutz's bye is Week 10. Factor that in when building your roster so you have a streaming option ready for that week.