Wil Lutz — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Wil Lutz has been one of the more consistent kickers in the league over the past three seasons. From 2023 through 2025, he averaged 29.7 field goals and 38 extra points per season on 33.3 attempts, missing fewer than 3 kicks per year on average. In 2024 he connected on all 46 extra point attempts and made 31 of 34 field goals, including 5 from 50-plus yards. That kind of volume and accuracy is the foundation of kicker value in fantasy, and Lutz has delivered it reliably. His 2025 line of 28 field goals and 39 extra points on 32 attempts continued the pattern. Denver's bye falls in Week 10, which is a manageable scheduling note for roster planning.

What the model projects

The projection for Lutz is 120.7 half-PPR fantasy points. He sits at K11 by position rank and #212 overall, placed in Tier 9. His draft value is -50.4, which means the projection lands below replacement level at the kicker position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 120.7 points is the point estimate; the median simulated season lands at 120.2, essentially in line with it.

The range of outcomes

The simulated season band is wide, as it tends to be at the kicker position. A bad season, bottom 10% of simulations, produces 56.9 points. The 25th percentile sits at 93.5. The median outcome is 120.2 points. A strong season at the 75th percentile reaches 142.1, and a top-10% outcome lands at 152.0. The gap between the floor and ceiling is nearly 95 points, reflecting how much variance exists in kicker scoring from season to season. His three-year track record of 29.7 field goals and 38 extra points per season provides a reasonable anchor for what a typical Lutz season looks like, but the band makes clear that outcomes can diverge significantly in either direction.

How to draft him

Lutz carries a market ADP of 416.4, which translates to pick 35.08 in a 12-team draft. That is well into the 35th round of a snake draft, a range that exists only in very deep or dynasty-adjacent formats. In a standard redraft league, he will not be drafted at all in most cases. His overall rank of #212 and position rank of K11 reflect a below-replacement projection, so there is no urgency to target him early. If you are in a format deep enough to roster kickers, note that you would need to reach round 35 to secure him at his current market price. Most managers will find him available on the waiver wire or simply pass on the position entirely until the final rounds.

He projects at 120.7 points and ranks K11 with a draft value of -50.4, which places him below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. His three-year average of 29.7 field goals and 38 extra points per season shows consistent volume, but the model's position rank and negative draft value suggest there are kickers the rankings prefer ahead of him.

Over the 2023-2025 seasons he averaged 29.7 field goals, 38 extra points, and 33.3 field goal attempts per year, missing an average of 2.7 kicks per season. His single-season field goal totals were 30, 31, and 28, showing a narrow range of volume across all three years.

The 90th-percentile simulated outcome is 152.0 half-PPR points, and the 75th percentile is 142.1. His 2024 season, when he hit 5 field goals from 50-plus yards and converted all 46 extra point attempts, gives a real-world reference point for what a strong Lutz season can produce.

His market ADP is 416.4, which works out to pick 35.08 in a 12-team draft. In a standard redraft format that does not go 35 rounds, he will not be drafted in most leagues and is likely a waiver wire option if you want to add a kicker late.