#45 overall · CIN · 288.1 projected half-PPR pts · +20.7 Draft Value · Market ADP 52.0
Joe Burrow — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
When Burrow played a full season in 2024, he delivered 4,918 passing yards, 43 passing touchdowns, and 2 rushing touchdowns on 652 attempts — a workload and efficiency that anchors his case as a top-end fantasy quarterback. His 2023 and 2025 seasons were shortened by injury, but the 2024 line shows what the ceiling looks like when he's on the field. He sits at QB2 and #45 overall with a +20.7 draft value above replacement, placing him in Tier 7 on the board. That surplus is real and it's attached to a quarterback who has already demonstrated the production to justify it.
What the model projects
The projection lands at 288.1 half-PPR fantasy points, producing a +20.7 draft value over replacement. That surplus earns him the QB2 designation and the #45 overall rank. His three-year averages tell the story of the variance baked into that number: 425.3 pass attempts, 3,012 pass yards, 25 passing touchdowns, and 110 rush yards per season across 2023–2025 — a span that includes both his 2024 peak and two injury-shortened campaigns.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 365 | 244 | 2309 | 15 | 6 | 31 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 153.2 |
| 2024 | 652 | 460 | 4918 | 43 | 9 | 42 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 381.8 |
| 2025 | 259 | 173 | 1809 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 0 | 0 | 139.5 |
| 3-yr avg | 425.3 | 292.3 | 3012 | 25 | 6.7 | 29 | 110 | 0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4.3 | — | — | 229.0 |
The range of outcomes
Burrow's season history maps the width of his outcome band clearly. In 2024, he completed 460 of 652 attempts for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns with 9 interceptions and 5 fumbles lost — a high-volume, high-efficiency season. In 2023, he managed 244 completions on 365 attempts for 2,309 yards and 15 touchdowns before his season ended early. In 2025, he posted 173 completions on 259 attempts for 1,809 yards and 17 touchdowns, again in limited action. The upside is a full-season 2024-style output; the downside is another injury-shortened year that leaves his fantasy value well below the projection. His bye falls in Week 6, which is worth noting for roster management.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Burrow going at pick 52.0 — round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. Our rank places him at #45 overall. If you want him, that is the window where you will need to spend a pick. At QB2 with a +20.7 draft value surplus, he is a legitimate target at that stage for drafters who want to lock in a high-ceiling quarterback rather than wait on the position.
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Questions drafters ask
He projects at 288.1 half-PPR points with a +20.7 draft value above replacement, ranking QB2 and #45 overall in Tier 7. That surplus makes him a legitimate starting-QB target.
Market ADP puts him at pick 52.0 — round 5, pick 4 in a 12-team draft (median across two platforms). That is the pick you need to spend if you want him on your roster.
His three-year averages (2023–2025) show 425.3 pass attempts, 3,012 pass yards, and 25 passing touchdowns per season — a figure pulled down by two shortened campaigns in 2023 and 2025. His 2024 full-season line (652 attempts, 4,918 yards, 43 TDs) represents the high end of what he can deliver when healthy.
In his two injury-shortened seasons, Burrow finished with 2,309 passing yards and 15 TDs in 2023, and 1,809 passing yards and 17 TDs in 2025. Those floors are well below the 288.1-point projection, so availability risk is the primary concern when rostering him.