#44 overall · DEN · 143.5 projected half-PPR pts · +21.0 Draft Value · Market ADP 45.2
Jaylen Waddle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaylen Waddle arrives in Denver carrying a three-year track record of high-volume target work. Over the 2023–2025 seasons he averaged 95.7 targets and 64.7 receptions per year, with his best individual season producing 104 targets and 1,014 receiving yards in 2023. His 2025 campaign showed a meaningful uptick in scoring efficiency — 6 receiving touchdowns on 100 targets — and his three-year average of 4 receiving touchdowns per season gives him a credible floor as a red-zone contributor. The route-running speed that made him a weapon in Miami travels with him, and a new offensive environment in Denver represents a genuine opportunity to reclaim the target share his raw numbers suggest he can handle.
What the model projects
The model projects Waddle at 143.5 half-PPR fantasy points this season. That projection produces a draft value of +21.0 points above replacement level at the wide receiver position, placing him #44 overall and WR23 on the full board. He sits in Tier 7. The positive draft value confirms he projects meaningfully above the replacement-level baseline for wide receivers in a standard 12-team half-PPR format.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 104 | 72 | 1014 | 4 | — | 0 | 0 | 162.6 |
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 2 | — | 0 | 0 | 116.6 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 100 | 64 | 910 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 162.1 |
| 3-yr avg | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | — | — | 3 | 17.3 | — | 95.7 | 64.7 | 889.3 | 4 | 0.3 | — | — | 147.1 |
The range of outcomes
Waddle's recent history illustrates exactly why his outcome band matters. His receiving yards swung from 1,014 in 2023 down to 744 in 2024, then back up to 910 in 2025 — a 270-yard spread across three seasons without a change in position. His touchdown production has been similarly uneven: 4 scores in 2023, 2 in 2024, 6 in 2025. That variance is baked into the simulated season distribution. A strong outcome — top 10% of simulated seasons — has him performing well above the 143.5 projection. A weak outcome — bottom 10% — reflects a season closer to his 2024 floor. The median simulated season anchors near the projection, but drafters should expect meaningful spread around it given his demonstrated year-to-year volatility.
How to draft him
Market ADP has Waddle going at pick 45.2 — round 4, pick 9 in a 12-team draft — drawn from a median across two platforms. Our model places him #44 overall, so the market and the model are closely aligned on where he belongs on the board. Plan to spend a fourth-round pick if you want him; waiting longer risks missing him. His bye is Week 10, which is worth noting for roster management purposes in the middle of the season.
Practice it in a free mock draft →
Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 95.7 targets and 64.7 receptions per year from 2023 through 2025, with a peak of 104 targets in 2023 and 100 in 2025.
He projects at 143.5 half-PPR points, ranks #44 overall and WR23, and carries a draft value of +21.0 — meaning he projects 21 points above the replacement-level baseline at wide receiver.
Yes — his receiving yards ranged from 744 (2024) to 1,014 (2023) and his touchdowns swung from 2 to 6 across those three seasons. That year-to-year variance is reflected in a wide simulated-season outcome band around his 143.5-point projection.
Market ADP puts him at pick 45.2, which is round 4, pick 9 in a 12-team draft. If you want him, budget a fourth-round selection — the market is currently pricing him right around his #44 overall model rank.