Jaylen Waddle — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

Jaylen Waddle has posted 100 or more targets in two of the last three seasons, averaging 95.7 targets per year across that stretch. His 2025 campaign showed a meaningful bounce in both targets (100) and touchdowns (6), and his three-year averages of 64.7 receptions and 889.3 receiving yards per season establish a consistent floor as a volume receiver. The touchdown uptick in 2025 is the most encouraging single-season signal in his recent history, and it feeds directly into a projection that sits above replacement level at his position. He carries a positive draft value of +11.7, meaning the projection puts him ahead of the half-PPR replacement baseline at wide receiver. WR25 is not a glamour rank, but the underlying target volume and the 2025 scoring rate give the case for him real footing.

What the model projects

The projection is 140.4 half-PPR fantasy points. The median simulated season lands at 146.2 points, close to but not identical to that point estimate. Waddle sits at #57 overall and WR25, placed in Tier 8 of the rankings. His draft value of +11.7 reflects a projection above replacement level at wide receiver in a 12-team half-PPR format. His bye week is 10.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide. At the pessimistic end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 64.1 points, a number that reflects genuine downside risk. The 25th percentile sits at 103.2 points, still a modest return for a mid-round pick. The median outcome of 146.2 points represents a serviceable WR2/flex contributor. The upside scenarios are more compelling: the 75th percentile reaches 180.5 points and the top-10% threshold is 216.1 points, a figure that would represent a clear weekly starter. The distance between the p10 and p90 outcomes is over 150 points, so drafters should enter with eyes open to both the floor and the ceiling. His 2025 season of 910 yards and 6 touchdowns on 100 targets is the template for the optimistic path; his 2024 line of 744 yards and 2 touchdowns on 83 targets is the template for the pessimistic one.

How to draft him

Market ADP has Waddle going at pick 47.4, which works out to round 4, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the window where you would need to spend a pick to secure him. The model has him at #57 overall and WR25. Plan accordingly: if you want him, round 4 is when the market is taking him. Given the width of his outcome band, he fits best as a WR3 or flex option in your starting lineup construction, with the understanding that the upside scenarios are real but so is the floor near 64 points. His target volume history makes him a reasonable anchor for that roster tier, and the 2025 touchdown rate gives the projection its positive lean.

He has averaged 95.7 targets per year across 2023-2025, with 104 targets in 2023, 83 in 2024, and 100 in 2025. Two of those three seasons cleared the century mark.

The p10 outcome from the simulated season band is 64.1 half-PPR points. That is the floor that 10% of simulated seasons fall at or below, and it reflects meaningful risk. His 2024 season of 744 yards and 2 touchdowns on 83 targets is the closest historical reference point for what a down year looks like.

Market ADP puts him at pick 47.4, or round 4, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is the average pick where he is coming off the board across the platforms that feed the median. The model ranks him #57 overall and WR25.

In 2025 he posted 910 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, and 100 targets. The 6 touchdowns were his highest single-season total in the three-year window and are the primary driver of the projection's positive lean above replacement level.