#32 overall · CHI · 168.6 projected half-PPR pts · +40.4 Draft Value · Market ADP 47.5
D'Andre Swift — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
D'Andre Swift has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, logging 1,049 yards in 2023 and 1,087 yards in 2025, with his three-year average sitting at 1,031.7 rush yards per season. The receiving work is consistent and real: 49.7 targets, 38.3 receptions, and 299.7 receiving yards per season over that same three-year window. Touchdowns have climbed each year, from 6 combined in 2023 to 10 combined in 2025, with his three-year average at 7.4 total touchdowns per season. The workload is there, the receiving role is there, and the scoring has trended in the right direction. At RB18 with a draftValue of +40.4, he projects above replacement level at the position.
What the model projects
The projection is 168.6 half-PPR fantasy points for the 2026 season. Swift ranks #32 overall and RB18, placing him in Tier 6. His median simulated season lands at 179.9 points, slightly above the point estimate. The three-year averages that feed into this picture: 235 rush attempts, 49.7 targets, 38.3 receptions, 1,031.7 rush yards, 299.7 receiving yards, and 7.4 combined touchdowns per season. His bye week is Week 10.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 229 | 1049 | 5 | 49 | 39 | 214 | 1 | 3 | 179.8 |
| 2024 | 253 | 959 | 6 | 52 | 42 | 386 | — | 2 | 191.5 |
| 2025 | 223 | 1087 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 299 | 1 | 2 | 211.6 |
| 3-yr avg | 235 | 1031.7 | 6.7 | 49.7 | 38.3 | 299.7 | 0.7 | 2.3 | 196.7 |
The range of outcomes
The outcome band is wide. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 72.2 points, a number that reflects how badly a worst-case scenario can compress a running back's value. The 25th percentile is 123.3 points, still a meaningful step below the projection. The median simulated season is 179.9 points. The 75th percentile reaches 228.2 points, and the top 10% of simulated seasons finish at or above 261.6 points. That 189.4-point spread between the p10 and p90 captures the full variance a drafter is accepting. The upside is genuine; so is the floor risk.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Market ADP has Swift going at pick 47.5, which works out to the 4th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the pick you will need to spend to secure him. He ranks #32 overall by draft value, and RB18 at his position. Plan your roster construction around a Week 10 bye.
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Questions drafters ask
He has averaged 235 rush attempts per season from 2023 to 2025, with individual season totals of 229, 253, and 223 attempts. Rush yards have averaged 1,031.7 per season, with 1,049 in 2023, 959 in 2024, and 1,087 in 2025.
Yes. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 49.7 targets, 38.3 receptions, and 299.7 receiving yards per season. His single-season high in receiving yards was 386 in 2024.
The 10th-percentile simulated season lands at 72.2 half-PPR points, and the 25th percentile is 123.3 points. Those are the numbers that define the bad-season range the model puts on him.
Market ADP puts him at pick 47.5, the equivalent of the 4th round, 12th pick in a 12-team draft, based on a median across two platforms. That is the current market price to secure him.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
That isn't luck. Those managers have tendencies, and after enough seasons the tendencies are a book. Your league's own draft history is where it's written. Paste it in a couple of minutes and RotoAlpha writes the book on every rival: who reaches, who chases runs, who overpays. The rival report is free.
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