#420 overall · DAL · 25.2 projected half-PPR pts · -104.3 Draft Value
Jaydon Blue — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Jaydon Blue is a Dallas RB with a 2025 season on record: 38 rush attempts, 129 rush yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 reception for 5 yards, and 1 fumble. That is the entirety of his NFL statistical footprint across the three-year window from 2023 through 2025 — the aggregate line is identical to the single-season line, meaning all of his production came in 2025. He is on the roster, he has touched the ball in the NFL, and he carries a bye of Week 14. For a drafter building out the back end of a roster, those are the baseline facts.
What the model projects
The projection for Jaydon Blue is 25.2 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. His draft value is -104.3, placing him #420 overall and RB90 in Tier 9. A negative draft value means the projection sits below replacement level at the running back position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number of 25.2 points reflects a low-volume outlook consistent with his recorded stat line.
| Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Fum | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38 | 129 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19.9 |
| 3-yr avg | 38 | 129 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19.9 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide and skewed heavily toward the low end. The p10 is 0.0 points — in the bottom 10% of simulated seasons, Blue scores nothing. The p25 is 2.8 points and the median (p50) is 10.0 points, meaning a typical simulated season produces very little fantasy value. The upside tail exists but is modest: the p75 is 33.9 points and the p90 reaches 66.6 points. That top-10% outcome represents a meaningful step up from the median, but the distance between the median and the floor is stark. Most simulated seasons end well below the 25.2-point projection, which itself sits below replacement level.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Jaydon Blue does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is a Tier 9 back ranked RB90 and #420 overall. At that position in the rankings, he belongs on the deepest end of a roster if at all, and only in leagues where streaming or stashing late-round backs has a clear purpose. His Week 14 bye is worth noting for playoff-week roster management. There is no pick cost to anchor a decision to here — if he appears on waivers or goes undrafted, that is the context in which to evaluate him.
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Questions drafters ask
He is ranked RB90 and #420 overall with a draft value of -104.3, which is below replacement level in a 12-team half-PPR format. He has no market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted across platforms. His projection is 25.2 points with a median simulated season of just 10.0 points.
His entire three-year recorded footprint (2023–2025) matches his 2025 season exactly: 38 rush attempts, 129 rush yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 reception for 5 yards on 1 target, and 1 fumble. All of his NFL production came in 2025.
The p90 simulated outcome is 66.6 half-PPR points — that is the top 10% of simulated seasons. The p75 is 33.9 points. Both figures represent meaningful jumps from the 10.0-point median, but the floor is severe: the p10 is 0.0 points and the p25 is just 2.8 points.
There is no market ADP available for Jaydon Blue — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is effectively an undrafted or waiver-wire-level back based on current market activity.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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