Jalen McMillan — 2026 Fantasy Outlook

The case for drafting him

McMillan's 2024 season is the number that keeps him relevant in deep-league conversations. In that year he caught 37 of 58 targets for 461 yards and added 8 receiving touchdowns, a touchdown rate that is difficult to sustain but real nonetheless. He also chipped in 4 rush attempts for 43 yards, showing some utility as a gadget piece. That 2024 line is the foundation of any argument for him: he was on the field, he was targeted, and he found the end zone at a high clip. For a late-round flier, that kind of upside history is exactly what drafters are hunting.

What the model projects

The projection is 90.7 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts McMillan at WR67 and #175 overall, landing in Tier 9. His draft value is -38.0, meaning the projection sits below replacement level at the wide receiver position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The median simulated season (p50) comes in at 74.5 points, which is notably below the 90.7 point estimate, indicating the distribution is skewed by higher-end outcomes pulling the mean upward.

The range of outcomes

The outcome band is wide, and that width is the defining feature of McMillan's profile. At the low end, 10% of simulated seasons finish at or below 19.8 points, essentially a non-factor campaign. The 25th percentile lands at 41.9 points, still a thin return on a roster spot. The median sits at 74.5 points. From there the upside opens up: the 75th percentile reaches 110.8 points and the top-10% outcome clocks in at 161.4 points. That 161.4 ceiling is meaningful. The gap between the p10 floor and the p90 ceiling, roughly 141 points, reflects a player whose role and volume can shift dramatically from one season to the next. His 2025 line of 12 receptions, 15 targets, and 178 yards illustrates exactly how thin the floor can get. His 2024 line illustrates the ceiling. Both are real possibilities.

How to draft him

Market ADP has McMillan going at pick 166.5, which works out to round 14, pick 11 in a 12-team draft. That is late-round territory, and that is the right frame for him. He is a stash, not a starter, and the pick cost reflects that. His bye is Week 10, worth noting if you are managing a thin roster. The projection and tier place him firmly in the end-game pool, so the question is not whether to prioritize him but whether, in the final rounds, his 2024 touchdown upside makes him worth a spot over other late options. The band says the ceiling is real; the floor says he needs things to break right.

The projection of 90.7 points and a draft value of -38.0 put him below replacement level at WR, ranked WR67 and #175 overall in Tier 9. He is a depth stash, not a reliable starter, but his 2024 season of 8 receiving touchdowns on 58 targets shows the ceiling is real if his role expands.

In 2024 he posted 461 receiving yards, 37 receptions on 58 targets, and 8 touchdowns, plus 43 rush yards on 4 attempts. In 2025 those numbers dropped sharply to 178 yards, 12 receptions, and 15 targets with no receiving touchdowns recorded. The three-year average sits at 319.5 receiving yards, 24.5 receptions, and 4 touchdowns per season.

Very wide. The p10 floor is 19.8 points and the p90 ceiling is 161.4 points in simulated seasons. The median outcome is 74.5 points. That spread reflects a player whose season-to-season variance is high, with both a near-zero floor and a genuinely useful ceiling in play.

Market ADP has him going at pick 166.5, or round 14, pick 11 in a 12-team draft, based on a median across 2 platforms. That is deep enough that he should be available in the final rounds of most drafts.