#165 overall · TB · 91.9 projected half-PPR pts · -30.6 Draft Value · Market ADP 156.4
Jalen McMillan — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
In 2024, Jalen McMillan posted 461 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns on 58 targets and 37 receptions for Tampa Bay — a touchdown rate that made him a genuine red-zone presence as a rookie. He also chipped in 43 rush yards on 4 carries, showing some versatility in the Buccaneers' offense. That touchdown production is the headline: 8 scores on a modest target share is a real data point, not noise. If that red-zone role holds or expands, the upside is meaningful even from a limited volume base.
What the model projects
The projection for McMillan is 91.9 half-PPR fantasy points in 2026. His draft value sits at -30.6, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the wide receiver position. He ranks WR61 at his position and #165 overall. He is a Tier 9 player on the board. Tampa Bay's bye week is Week 10.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 58 | 37 | 461 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 116.9 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 12 | 178 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23.9 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | 2.5 | 22 | — | 36.5 | 24.5 | 319.5 | 4 | — | — | 70.4 |
The range of outcomes
McMillan's season history tells a story of significant variance. In 2024 he posted 461 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns; in 2025 he managed just 178 receiving yards, 12 receptions on 15 targets, and 0 receiving touchdowns. The three-year averages (2023–2025) settle at 319.5 receiving yards, 24.5 receptions, 36.5 targets, and 4 receiving touchdowns per season — a blend that reflects both the high-touch upside and the low-volume floor. The gap between his best and worst recent seasons is wide, and that spread defines the risk here. A season closer to 2024 looks very different from a season closer to 2025.
How to draft him
McMillan's market ADP is 156.4, drawn from two platforms, which translates to pick 13.12 in a 12-team snake draft. He ranks #165 overall by draft value. At that draft slot — the final rounds of a standard draft — he is a late-flier with a defined ceiling rooted in touchdown upside. His bye falls in Week 10, worth noting for roster management. Draft him as a depth or stash option if you want exposure to the touchdown variance his 2024 season demonstrated.
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Questions drafters ask
He caught 37 of 58 targets for 461 receiving yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, adding 43 rush yards on 4 carries. The 8 touchdowns on a modest target share was the standout number from his rookie season.
It was a sharp step back: 12 receptions on 15 targets for 178 receiving yards and 0 receiving touchdowns, compared to 37 receptions, 58 targets, 461 yards, and 8 scores in 2024.
The projection is 91.9 half-PPR fantasy points. He ranks WR61 at his position and #165 overall, with a draft value of -30.6 — below replacement level — placing him in Tier 9 on the board.
His market ADP is 156.4 (from two platforms), which works out to pick 13.12 in a 12-team snake draft — deep in the final rounds.