#228 overall · NYG · 54.9 projected half-PPR pts · -57.1 Draft Value
Theo Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Theo Johnson took a clear step forward in 2025. After a 2024 line of 29 receptions, 331 yards, and 1 touchdown on 43 targets, he posted 45 receptions, 528 yards, and 5 touchdowns on 74 targets in 2025. The target volume nearly doubled, the catch rate held steady, and the touchdown production jumped sharply. For a tight end, that kind of usage growth is the foundation everything else is built on. He is on the Giants' roster with a demonstrated role in the passing game, and the 2025 season showed he can be a genuine red-zone option.
What the model projects
The projection for Johnson in 2026 is 54.9 half-PPR fantasy points. His draft value sits at -57.1, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position. He ranks TE32 and #228 overall, placing him in Tier 9 on the board. The Giants have a Week 8 bye.
| Att | Comp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | FG | XP | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 29 | 331 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 53.6 |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 45 | 528 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 105.3 |
| 3-yr avg | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 58.5 | 37 | 429.5 | 3 | — | — | 79.5 |
The range of outcomes
Johnson's 2025 season — 74 targets, 45 catches, 528 yards, 5 touchdowns — represents the kind of output that, if repeated or built upon, would make the current projection look conservative. But tight end production is volatile, and the 3-year averages (58.5 targets, 37 receptions, 429.5 yards, 3 touchdowns per season) reflect how uneven his path has been. The upside is real: a second consecutive season of target growth and sustained red-zone work could push his totals well beyond the projection. The downside is equally real: a regression in touchdowns or targets would leave him firmly in the replacement-level range. The gap between his floor and ceiling is wide.
How to draft him
Johnson does not have a market ADP — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. At TE32 and #228 overall with a -57.1 draft value, he projects below replacement level at his position. He is a late-round or waiver-wire consideration for drafters who want to speculate on a continuation of his 2025 target and touchdown growth. His Week 8 bye is worth noting for roster management. Given his Tier 9 standing, he is best treated as a depth piece or a late stash rather than a planned starter.
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Questions drafters ask
The numbers show genuine growth. He went from 43 targets and 1 touchdown in 2024 to 74 targets and 5 touchdowns in 2025, with receiving yards climbing from 331 to 528. That is a meaningful jump in both volume and efficiency.
The projection is 54.9 half-PPR fantasy points. That puts him at TE32 and #228 overall, with a draft value of -57.1 — below replacement level at the tight end position.
Johnson does not have a market ADP right now — he is not being drafted consistently enough across platforms to produce one. He is available as a late add or waiver target rather than a planned draft pick.
His 2025 season — 74 targets, 45 receptions, 528 yards, 5 touchdowns — is the clearest data point for his ceiling. A repeat or improvement on that line would significantly outperform the 54.9-point projection. The 3-year average of 3 receiving touchdowns and 429.5 yards per season, however, shows how much the 2025 touchdown total stood out.