#254 overall · NYG · 52.0 projected half-PPR pts · -67.7 Draft Value
Theo Johnson — 2026 Fantasy Outlook
The case for drafting him
Theo Johnson's 2025 season was a meaningful step forward. He caught 45 passes on 74 targets for 528 yards and 5 touchdowns, improving on his 2024 line of 29 receptions, 43 targets, 331 yards, and 1 score across every category. The three-year averages — 37 receptions, 58.5 targets, 429.5 yards, and 3 touchdowns per season — reflect a player still building volume, but the 2025 numbers show the trajectory is pointed in the right direction. For a drafter hunting late-round depth at tight end, Johnson is a name worth knowing.
What the model projects
The projection is 52.0 half-PPR fantasy points for 2026. That puts Johnson at TE33 and #254 overall, sitting in Tier 9. His draft value is -67.7, meaning the projection lands below replacement level at the tight end position in a 12-team half-PPR format. The headline number is modest, and the rank reflects that honestly.
| Tgt | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Half-PPR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 43 | 29 | 331 | 1 | 53.6 |
| 2025 | 74 | 45 | 528 | 5 | 105.3 |
| 3-yr avg | 58.5 | 37 | 429.5 | 3 | 79.5 |
The range of outcomes
The simulated season band is wide, which is the defining feature of Johnson's outlook. The median simulated season lands at 51.1 points, close to the 52.0 projection. The bottom 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 12.4 points, and the 25th percentile sits at 27.5. On the upside, the 75th percentile reaches 75.5 points and the top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 108.9. That upper tail is real. A drafter who lands Johnson in the right scenario gets a player capable of producing at a useful clip; the downside is a near-zero fantasy contribution. The gap between p10 and p90 — 12.4 to 108.9 — is the story here. Johnson is a high-variance late-roster option, not a floor play.
(bottom 10%)
(median)
(top 10%)
our projection
How to draft him
Johnson does not have a market ADP across public 2026 drafts, which means he is not being drafted consistently enough to register a median pick. In practice, he is available as a free pickup in most drafts. His bye is Week 8. Given his below-replacement projection and the wide outcome band, he fits best as a late-roster stash for a drafter who wants to speculate on the upside that the p90 outcome of 108.9 points represents. Roster him with that ceiling in mind, not the floor.
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Questions drafters ask
The projection is 52.0 half-PPR points and his draft value is -67.7, placing him below replacement level at TE33 and #254 overall in Tier 9. He does not have a market ADP, meaning he is not being consistently drafted in public leagues. He is a speculative stash, not a pick you need to spend capital on.
Yes. His 2025 season — 45 receptions, 74 targets, 528 yards, 5 touchdowns — was a clear improvement over his 2024 line of 29 receptions, 43 targets, 331 yards, and 1 touchdown. The three-year averages sit at 37 receptions, 58.5 targets, 429.5 yards, and 3 touchdowns per season.
The top 10 percent of simulated seasons finish at 108.9 half-PPR points, and the 75th percentile reaches 75.5. That upper tail is meaningful for a player available off the waiver wire in most drafts.
Week 8.
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Beyond the numbers
The same names cash in your league every year
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